Category: General
October
October went very much to plan. No big upside or downside surprises and it followed the pattern in previous years of having been a strong month overall. Though it has to be said that the UK racing always takes a dip in this month as we transition to the jumps.
I managed to get a new record day in October and beat it twice again which was a surprise, I did have a few moments where I was really on …
95% of traders lose?
95% of traders lose is a very common statistic quoted, but I’ve never seen any data on it. Somebody recently sent this to me about forex traders, which I thought made interesting reading. Obviously this is limited to the scope and definition of the survey but I think it’s an interesting article and discussion. It also shows the importance of money management and low transaction costs.
As they say, 47.3% of statistics are made up on the spot!
https://forexmagnates.com/us-forex-brokers-account-profitability-comparison/
Is £113m too much?
I see this enormous lottery jackpot has now been claimed.
I do wonder what is the point of gifting somebody so much money, especially in times of such austerity? I find it a little crass. I am sure the money could be put to excellent use in a number of ways, but gifting it to one person?!? I know there has to be an incentive to do the lottery, but I am sure most people would be very happy with …
Benoit Mandelbrot
It was sad to hear of the passing of Mandelbrot last week. But that we should be blessed with his insight is a great thing. He also lived into his eighties, which is a good innings.
Mandelbrot is best know for his work on Fractals. The beauty of fractals is that, while not predictive, they can describe very complicated objects from very simple constructs and that, I believe, is the key to life universe and everything. Whether is subatomic particles, …
Death of a strategy
If you read the ‘birth of a strategy‘ one thing you can see how is long it takes for a new idea to fade, but why?
Well, people were in this market before I was, so my arrival no doubt had an impact on them. It must have or else I couldn’t have made any money. So was their response to sit there and let it happen? No, they would have tweaked their strategy to take account of …
September
September was pretty much spot on where I thought it would be, which is encouraging. I got off to an indifferent start but picked up speed as I went along and finished on a high. Nothing amazing stood out in September and I completed a quiet transition away from the evening racing. The only notable thing was that my strike rate slipped year on year for the first time in a while. I have tweaked a few things recently, so …
Eight day week
A long week this week on the racing markets. I know a lot of traders who work seven days a week, but I tend not to; this week being an exception.
It’s really the last chance this year to smash in a big week. The Cambridgeshire meeting at Newmarket, more group racing on Saturday and Sunday in Australia and of course the pièce de résistance, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe on Sunday.
It’s tiring but its a nice way …
Four years ago
It was back in 2006 on this Friday and Saturday that I attended the World Money Show with Betfair.
It was a tough thing to do, as all around us we had all sorts of sexy stands and products owned by very slick and well funded financial types. The first problem was getting people to come to the stand, I remember arguing with a Forex trader who was critical of Betfair’s presence at the show. I tried to explain that …
A bit of a eureka moment..
For some time I’ve been working on a modelling spreadsheet. On and off I’ve dabbled with it for a few years when time permitted. The aim is to produce a better tool for forecasting value. Predicting the future is always tough and I’ve been searching for a solution to a complicated forecasting problem. I’ve got close, but not enough for a clear ‘victory’.
Sat in bed on Saturday evening with my iPad, I was getting a bit bored of the …
Don’t come back till St Leger day
Today we can all buy shares again thanks to the oldest classic horse race in the world. There is this ‘theory’ that during the summer stocks languish and only when everybody is back to their desk does the market perk up. Here is one link, from many, that discuss this: –
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing/article.html?in_article_id=484982&in_page_id=166
I’ve never managed to pull anything spectacular out of hte St Leger for some reason and the Doncaster meeting seems to have been particulary tough this week. Let’s …
European Court rejects gambling restrictions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11234128
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) said German laws that protect state monopolies for gambling were “unjustifiable”.
The ruling could open the way for foreign betting companies to establish a presence in Germany.
Impossible?
When I was young I was constantly reminded how some things were just impossible. I had many dreams, but a difficult start in life meant they were very very distant. I also had no mentor, guide or path on how to achieve the things I so dearly wanted to. This was going to be hard work. I saw my father suffer at the hands of fate at a young age and this was a pivitol moment. It could have reinforced …
Working holiday
I can now finally explain my ‘very satisfying‘ comment from a little while back.
Under duress from my wife and kids, this year we decided to have some ‘time off’ in August. I usually holiday in the winter when the sporting schedule is very quiet, but this year we took a summer ‘holiday’ as well. With the summer sporting schedule in full flow, it would prove very costly financially to just take time off; the winter is the …
Very satisfying
Managed to put in a decent session yesterday and the result was very satisfying. Given the huge number of races on yesterday the total was expected, though higher than forecast, but it was the manner in which it was achieved that was the key. Slightly cryptic, but I will explain more next week.
That went well
Goodwood ended up much better than I expected and I comfortably beat all my previous years totals. July as a month was also a cracker and was particularly pleasing because I managed to pull in a record month.
It’s a great confidence booster to get a record month after a decade on the markets. I never take anything for granted and have always felt that I and everybody, has to earn their place in the market. It’s naive to assume …
My journey – Part two
My early foray into Gambling markets was on football pools. I learnt on the football pools that a lot of the money staked had no rationale behind it. People just used birthdays, lucky numbers etc. etc. The football pools was certainly a bit of a lottery, but it was a lottery that offered the chance for somebody using a bit of intelligence to place better positions in the market. With so much ‘dumb’ money around, I thought that in the …
Impossible
During my career I’ve often relished the chance to break new ground in whatever I have been doing. It’s always the voyage and discovery that I enjoy the most, everything else can take a back seat. Breaking new ground, achieving the impossible, charting the unknown or pushing the boundaries is something that I really enjoy. Furthermore, as soon as the word impossible is uttered, it immediately makes me sit up and pay attention.
Last week I achieved something that will …
May
I was cursing my comments on April at the start of May. I think I previously quoted that I had the wind behind me. At the start of May, I had a force 10 gale in my face! But by the end of the month things were a lot more comfortable and I put in an excellent performance. Some times the market can be like that.
Somebody was asking on the forum how it’s possible to make £1k a race? …
New coalition supports gambling
Was browsing around the net in a quieter moment and read the story about David Cameron moving home to number 10. I was tickled to read this section in the story: –
“Mr Cameron, who said he had “quite a lot of other meetings and things I’ve got to do at the same time” as moving, was also asked to give two horse racing tips by Today’s sports reporter Garry Richardson.
The PM, who was given about a minute …
Bleak mid-winter
Cold weather, snow and ice isn’t ideal for any outdoor sports and in particular horse racing. Winter is generally a difficult time of the year but it seems that this winter is particulary cold.
The Met Office recently issued data that indicated December was the coldest in 15 years and the popular press is talking up the prospect of a very cold winter indeed. It’s difficult to be certain if it will be as bad as the forecasts, but hysteria …
2009
Just finished adding up and checking all the data from last year. So here is a mini review: –
Last year I got off to a difficult start, to say the least. As explained over a year ago, my father was seriously Ill and requiring a lot of care. Sadly he passed away in late January and after a year of struggle I decided to take most of February off to get a clean break from a very difficult period. …
Record run ends..
Well it had to stop sooner or later and it turned out to be sooner! I had tr0uble getting anything decent out of Chester all day and it was that race meeting that stopped my run at 82 in row, with a frustrating loss early on in the day. I ended up just failing to break even on the race, losing less than £1 but it was enough to stop the winning run. I could have laid something in-running to …
William Hill to move to Gibraltar
As discussed by Scott , Will Hill have confirmed this morning that they are going to move their business to Gib. Full press release available by clicking this text.
With the government keen for tax revenue and the horse racing industry desperate for levy revenue this is a bitter blow. But also, this is likely to trigger a move by competitors to follow suit. At the end of the day if some people are paying less tax and levy, …
What’s that ebook racing system really worth?
Roll up, I have a new system for you, for no effort and little skill you can bag £50k a year and Sir, for you today, it’s only, Not £499, Not even £99, but just £37. But hurry I am closing offers on Friday and I only have 20 left!
Hmm, I bet you heard that pitch before, it seems every day my inbox is accosted by offers telling me they have a foolproof system for sale. But if you …
Slingtrading
Those that have followed me for a few years will know that one of my favourite toys in the office is a Slingbox.
A Slingbox allows you to ‘sling’ pictures and audio out of your home to where-ever you are in the world. All you need is a decent Internet connection and you will be able to tap back into your horse racing pictures back at home. This opens up the possibility of being able to trade from pretty …
Outrageous risk – Part One
This is how many would describe the following strategy I am about to outline.
The strategy takes on the maximum risk possible in a market, here it is :-
Go into the market at 1pm and back every favourite with a £1 tick size….. that’s it! Ok, you will have to close your position before the off, but that’s about it from a strategy viewpoint. No offsetting your order or closing out one tick away from your entry price. By …
January wrap up
Is the gambling industry recession proof?
It’s a question I have seen pop up on several forums and to be honest I don’t know the answer. During the last recession I didn’t have much focus on gambling companies, but one thing for sure is that a recession is generally not good for consumer spending. Whether punters turn to gambling when the chips are down isn’t certain, but there will certainly be less disposable income around. I can see how irrational gamblers are though, through the markets; …
Obama in illegal gambling scandal
OK, maybe not a scandal then but quite funny how you can fall foul of the law. The national campaign for Barack Obama altered a fundraising opportunity on its Web site this week to avoid a violation of Minnesota’s gambling laws.
The contest, which originally offered 10 supporters who donated $5 or more, and their guests, the chance to meet Mr. Obama at the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 28 in Denver, now does not require a donation after campaign …
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