Category: Horse Racing
Aintree Grand National and fallers
If there is one thing Aintree is known for it is spectacular fallers. In 2011 British racing yielded to public opinion and changed the fences at Aintree. The idea was to stop more fallers and serious injuries to horses. Did that happen? Will it happen? What the key factors behind a faller in a race?
Source data
To answer all the questions I took a look at half a million horses that raced around the various jumps races over the …
The Flat is back
Today marks the traditional return of the flat turf season. So that means the end of the footy season is near, the Grand National is right upon us and the first Golf Major of the year is also here. Time to really start building up your activity!
The Lincoln has been going since 1859 and this complex handicap is traditional launcher for flat turf racing. There have been some two-year-olds out already, so the flat season has started but this …
Made in Meydan
Today sees the worlds richest horse race take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.
Over the years I’ve moved from dabbling in the Meydan markets to doing them seriously. They often make for a useful addition on a dull winters day in the UK. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup stands out on it’s own as a race later in …
Cheltenham Preview Day 4
Triumph Hurdle
I am not alone when I echo some of the quotations I have seen suggesting this is the probably the most competitive race of the week. I was sitting with a friend who compiles his own ratings and he had 12 of the horses within 4lbs of each other. Some will improve and others will regress but either way you will need some luck to find the winner. Ivanovich Gorbatov is trained by Aidan O’Brien who trained the …
Cheltenham Preview Day 3
Let me start by saying this is my opinion on the forthcoming racing. I am not saying this is the oracle, it is only my view and is written to help the non-racing people get a feeling for the day’s racing. If somehow you can profit from it, then it is a bonus
JLT Novices Chase
I am not sure you will find a more competitive race this week and to my eye the betting is slightly wrong. I am …
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Trading in-running
One excellent strategy you can use on betting exchanges, is backing or laying before the off and trading out in-play. Many Bet Angel customers do this or a variation of this, , as part of a profitable activity in the market.
In-running tools
Bet Angel is great for this as you can do it manually or automatically using the automation. On the manual front we …
Cheltenham preview – Day two
This looks a tricky day to find horses capable of springing a surprise or horses you know will run well at a big price and offer a decent back to lay opportunity.
Neptune Hurdle
Well I guess this will fall under the headline “stating the bleedin’ obvious” but I am not sure what else you can say here. It’s all very well talking about potential and improvement because these horses are novices but we must bear in mind this is …
Cheltenham day one preview
Willie do it again?
As I wrote last year, Willie Mullins is once again looking likely to dominate the first day of the 2016 Cheltenham Festival. It does seem, according to some that he simply has to turn up on Day 1 of this year’s equine Olympics and leaves everyone quaking in their boots; especially the bookmakers! I have to say that Willie may not have it all his own way as his horses do not, in my humble opinion, …
Preparing for Cheltenham
We are so close to Cheltenham that I’m now in that final, ‘Have I done everything I can to prepare’ mode.
Cheltenham pretty much makes or breaks March for me. A good meeting and it’s a good March a bad one and it’s a struggle to make the numbers.
Each year I go through the same sort of preparation for big weeks and in this video I explain that process and my thoughts on the run up to a big …
Billy no mates
Nobody has invited us around this Christmas, so yet again today, our family is hosting everybody for lunch, but I wont be there. I guess somebody needs to earn the money to pay for it 😉 I’ll be locked in my study and making the odd appearance to say hello.
New years day is a busy day in the sporting world. At least the footy is occurring on a different day this year! But the racing is on today, as …
How to win £45m in a few minutes
Four years ago today we were treated to a day of spectacular proportions.
On this this day at the Christmas hurdle at Leopardstown, something went very, very wrong. Voler La Vedette ran home to take that race, but for most of the race £21m was available to back at good odds. Nobody it seemed was able to take all that money in-running however and ‘only’ £1.6m was matched, meaning the loser would have to pay out a cool £44.8m to …
Tingle Creek meeting
For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early highpoint in December .
The meeting is joined by Aintree and the Welsh Grand National trial on Saturday to make a decent card. It should make up for the dross we have had during the week!
At this time of the year it’s easy to slip into some gloom. Like the weather, the markets …
Hennessy Gold Cup – One of my favourite races
I have fond memories of the Hennessy Gold Cup. I’ve traditionally done well at this race and its the race I traded live at the IX Investor show for Betfair in 2006. I know I’ve posted this summary, or something similar, before. But it’s definitely one of the highlights of my trading career so far so it’s worth a reprise for those that haven’t seen it before.
Betfair at a financial market expo
Seeing a betting company at a financial …
I think I’ve spotted a trend!
I must admit, the Melbourne Cup Carnival has got off to a slow start for me this year. So I thought I’d better check on whether I was underperforming, or whether there was something else going on.
Something else in going on.
I took the first two days of the Carnival from my records and analysed total turnover in the markets for those two days. Obviously it started from a lower base some time ago, but the peak was in …
Derby Day is almost here
Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no….
If you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time) is Derby Day at Flemington in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup. It’s a busy period full stop on the horse racing front, as we also have the Breeders Cup on as well.
Typically the Friday on Breeders Cup …
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc
Once a year I will taste some French racing like a connoisseur tastes French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast.
I don’t tend to trade on Sunday’s, or on French racing; but the richest race in Europe always draws my attention as it and the companion races are nearly always an opportunity.
Today starts the two day meeting at Longchamp. Saturdays are intermingled with some quality in the UK, so don’t tend …
Why trading horse racing works so well!
We had a glorious example earlier this week as to why trading is definitely a better way to earn money on Racing than traditional punting! The great thing about this trade, is that I did it office when we had somebody in for training; so it was great to pull of such a trade while they were here.
If somebody from a traditional punting background doesn’t understand why they should trade, show them this post!
The set up
We have …
Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting
I missed typed this headline when I first wrote it, a hasty re-write was in order! It’s amazing how a misplaced ‘t’ instead of an ‘r’ can change a headline.
But despite my initial slip, which could have been freudian in nature, this meeting at Newmarket isn’t too bad. We start today and build to a climax on Saturday. I’ve picked off some good results from the meeting in the past and I’m hoping to repeat that this year.
Today …
Laytown races – Laying on the beach
The races
Since 1868 Laytown has hosted the annual race meeting like no other. With no formal race course to host the equine competitors, these horses are raced on the beach. Laytown catches the attention of wide range of racing and non-racing goers each year.
Quite a few years ago I was captivated by the sight of horses running on the beach. It just seemed a bit different and interesting. So I set my sights on visiting this very unique …
Predicting chaotic markets
Took one look at the racing card this morning and was a bit frustrated. Yes, lots of racing on which is great, but just too much. My spreadsheet gave me the following dialogue: –
“There are 587 runners today over 61 races, an average of 9 runners per race.Based upon long term averages today’s racing is likely to exhibit much less volatility against what we would typically expect to see.If all races start on time, then there will be 11 …
Ebor, Ebore or Ffast Loss?
Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week.
The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. It should be better than what we have been seeing recently though.
Traditionally …
An evening off?
The Sussex stakes at Goodwood yesterday proved to be a very interesting market. I posted all of the charts from that race on a Facebook page for you to have a look at, but I felt this was one of the most readable markets of the week so far. Most of the other racing yesterday was a little bit quiet, but Galway gives a boost in the evening.
Today we have an interesting card as Galway is running during the …
Galwood day one
It was a slow but interesting start to the week at Goodwood and Galway.
The Tuesday is always a bit tricky because the racing cards are a little bit weaker on these days. As a case in point, the top races today dwarf the the whole card from yesterday at both courses.
We have a group one race at Goodwood today, the Sussex stakes, that should prove interesting trading fodder and we also have a Galway plate. Both of these …
Betdaq and Irish racing
We have a confluence of opportunity today, but unusually, it will be pronounced on Betdaq.
To understand why we need to look at two factors. Prior to 2008 I wasn’t really active on Betdaq. I took an interest in 2008, but it was pretty quiet. However my hand was forced in 2011, so I started to set about doing something in earnest from that point. Volume, noticeably on horse racing has been rising steadily since then to the point where …
Punters ask for Moore
We are all familiar with a gambled horse.
It starts when a horse in a race receives particular attention. Seeing that horse is being backed, other people back it feeling they may be missing out on something. You find that often sets off a gamble as people discount a lot into the movement of the price of the horse as a ‘sign’, usually without any regard for the underlying rationale.
The Partnership gambler
Yesterday, we were treated to a different …
Royal Ascot week
And so here we are, another year, another Ascot. That came around quickly didn’t it!
For me, it’s another declined invitation to attend. While that pains me, for the moment I’d still rather be on this side of the desk during one of the busiest weeks of the year. By next year my eldest will probably be in a position to take over! Subject to performance and enthusiasm!
Ascot is obviously a big deal and generally I target it to …
BETDAQ Royal Ascot promotion
BETDAQ is back with a key promotion at Royal Ascot, well timed if I say so myself!
As I’m sure you’re aware, next week is a huge one for traders with Royal Ascot and the US Open taking place. BETDAQ has traditionally performed well during the big meetings (see the image below), if not better nowadays than Betfair. So it’s an ideal opportunity to give it a try next week. I tend to trade on both exchanges during these key …
Let’s hope the Derby is this exciting
I’ve taken a diversion from just just posting an image of a result to putting some detail into events at the Oaks today. It was such a fascinating market from beginning to end.
The first thing that happened was ‘Legatissimo’ contracted quite heavily, but the pictures showed that it wasn’t enjoying it’s journey to post, so it looked a obvious lay. Slowly but surely the market reacted to it’s behaviour. This generally got worse till the horse cleared the main …
The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market
So today we reach the Oaks and tomorrow the Derby, when the summer racing really starts to step up a gear. The start of June means Royal Ascot is just around the corner.
If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at Epsom was Betfair’s first market way back when they started in June 2000. But it was a little later that year, on June 11th. Mark Davis reminisced on his blog about it. I …
Two card Tuesdays
We have reached the time of year when Monday and Tuesday UK racing drops to two cards in the afternoon. It’s an important time of year, as this changes the characteristic of these cards to the negative, but also it allows you to do a few other things and skip these cards if needed.
Impact on racing
Racing tends to be lower quality on a Monday and Tuesday and that combined with the 15 minute gaps in-between the cards leads …
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