Category: Motor sport
Betfair trading – Formula 1 – Street traders
Formula one is back this weekend, so we will get to see how the new cars will shape the sport this season.
I delved into the sport in depth a few years ago and have kept all the records up to date to look at key aspects of it from a trading perspective. While there are not huge amounts of money traded on F1, I’ve enjoyed the intellectual pursuit of understanding the sport a bit better. It’s thrown off a …
Testing times – Profit from them!
Trading on Formula One racing may seem unusual, starting to trade even before the season has even started even more unusual; but it can often present some really good opportunities.
At the start of each year after a winter break, I watch preparations for the new Formula 1 season with interest. The various teams are testing new cars and configurations and it generally leads to a mixed bunch of results. But typically that’s what testing is all about. It’s at …
The British Grand Prix
After a successful week, I’m ducking out of trading seriously today to watch some sport and do a few other things.
British Grand Prix stats
The British GP is curious in that, for a non-street circuit, the average outcome is quite variable from Grid to Finish. It’s the least certain race outside the street circuits. 71% of poles end up on the podium and it’s 50/50 whether second or third on the grid will end up on the there also. …
Monaco Grand Prix
The Gym I belong to had a new joiner that I started speaking to last year, he is an ex-racing driver. He has given me some valuable insight into the racing world from behind the wheel! He told me Hamilton would struggle this year and that Red Bull stood a good chance of pole position at Monaco. I’m all ears now when I chat to him now!!!
For a view of the race from behind a spreadsheet, read on…
You …
Monaco Grand Prix
You could be forgiven for thinking that if you qualify on pole in Monaco you will win. The tight street circuit is a big test for anybody who is attempting to overtake, but my stats paint a different picture.
Street vs. Race circuits
Monaco was one of the first circuits I profiled and it was because I expected it to throw of some definable characteristics. But what it taught me was just how different street circuits are to custom race …
Testing times? Profit from them
Trading on Formula One racing may seem unusual and starting to trade even before the season has even started even more unusual, but it can often present some really good opportunities.
At the start of each year after a winter break, I watch preparations for the new Formula 1 season with interest. The various teams are testing new cars and configurations and it generally leads to a mixed bunch of results. But typically that’s what testing is all about. It’s …
Wonder weather you should trade?
Nice example today of how weather can play a important part in sport.
I’ve mentioned before that Rain in F1 can play an important part in a race. Turning a predictable victory into an unpredictable melee of circumstances.
Today we were presented with that and say the winner market dump odds of 1.51, 1.12 and 2.10. Daniel Ricciardo, who is having a great season, won the race but traded widely at 40’s. Throw into the mix a fast, but …
British F1 Grand Prix
I thought I would be on again for my annual trip with my son to the F1 this weekend. Curiously as I sat in Hospital with him this week, I pondered on the irony of being IN ward F1 instead! Thankfully Luke is back home now.
If you are regular reader of the blog you will know that last year I won a Z4 for the weekend last year to go to Silverstone. I enjoyed driving it so much I …
Monaco Grand Prix
Almost went to the Monaco Grand Prix this year., but the PGA Golf at Wentworth got in the way of it this year, so I’ll have to delayed my visit to this iconic race. I’m picking up some useful totals on Golf so the opportunity to make money rather than spend it, is still too tempting for me!
You could be forgiven for thinking that if you qualify on pole in Monaco you will win. The tight street circuit is …
Testing times
It is with interest that I am watching preparations for the new Formula 1 season.
The various teams have been testing this week in Jerez and it’s proved to be a mixed bunch of results so far, but hey, that’s what testing is all about.
But the uncertainty during testing and all the rule changes that have occurred this season could throw up some unexpected results as we head through the season. So I’m really interested in taking a deeper …
British F1 Grand Prix
I’m off to my annual Dad and Son day out at the British GP today and the weather looks like it will be perfect. I’ve won a BMW Z4 for the weekend as well, so that just perfect and I’ll be using that to full effect by hacking up and down the M40 to Silverstone over the weekend. Trading can wait for this Sunday! By the time you read this I’ll already be sat in the Grandstand at Silverstone.
The …
Canadian F1 Grand Prix
During the F1 season you will see me pop up with the odd stat. This is based on the research I completed this year.
I’ve been waiting for Canadian Grand Prix to come around as this is one of the least predictable from an outcome viewpoint (putting aside all the vagaries already in F1 this year). The circuit has been described as a ‘street curcuit without the houses’.
If you look historically at the Canadian GP the top qualifier only …
Monaco F1 GP
I’ve pretty much completed my study of F1 circuits just in time for the high profile Monaco Grand Prix.
You could be forgiven for thinking that if you qualify on pole in Monaco you will win. The tight street circuit is a big test for anybody who is attempting to overtake, but my stats give a different story.
Monaco was one of the first circuits I profiled and it was because I expected it to throw of some definable characteristics. …
Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix
My quest to model all F1 circuits continues and its starting to yield results. It’s been a massive task, but I just love fiddling around with data to better understand a sport and look for an edge. If I don’t find anything, it makes for a nice magazine article anyway!
There is a limited data set from Bahrain so comparing this track to others is not an exact science, but when you sort the data a couple of characteristics pop …
Short note on the Australian F1 Grand Prix
Last year I had a couple of thoughts about Formula one and motor-sport in general, so I embarked on a research project. Still a lot of work to be done and conclusions to be reached.
I’m still not finished on the research and I don’t have a complete data set but one I started the research, sensibly, at the start of the season and started working through each race going back ten years or as far as I could go. …
Home advantage
One rule I have, is to favour positions where they is a psychological bias in the in the underlying event. What do I mean?
Take a look at the post I made about the Olympics not so long ago. This post documented home advantage bias with some academic evidence and concluded by explaining a number of reasons why this exists.
Imagine in a football match that we have a strong home team playing a weak away team and the away …
British Grand Prix
I’m off to see the British Grand Prix this weekend. Just my luck that the race day should coincide with the moment the first Briton in 74 years is going to be playing the men’s final at Wimbledon, I’d quite like to watch that. But I can’t renege on the offer to take my son to Silverstone, even if it means trudging through what is likely to be very boggy ground.
The weather forecast looks mixed at best and this …
Motorsport mayhem
Another classic example of the complexities, but opportunities, presented in motor-sports markets.
These markets are often difficult to price at the best of times. It gets even more fun when the stewards get involved. Objections, scrutiny, obscure or not so obscure rules, changes, or breaches thereof.
After a blinding lap delivered Lewis Hamilton pole position for the start of the Spanish grand prix. Now a failure to adhere to the rules on his qualifying run down lap relegated him right …
F1 is back – Australian Grand Prix
Well my tickets for Silverstone are already booked and I’m looking forward to the new season.
I don’t tend to do much on Motorsport, but over time I’ve become adept at picking out opportunties on F1. Have a browse of some previous blog posts.
Comments from winter testing and early season practice tend to show you whose cars are competitive and whose are not. Other teams will catch up over the course of the season and rule changes can …
British Grand Prix
By the time you read this I will be tucking into a Bacon Roll at Silverstone, home of the British Grand Prix.
I’ve been determined to get to more sporting events this year rather than just sit at my desk looking for an opportunity, so I am pleased to confirm I am fulfilling that obligation so far this year. I was going to the Open Golf, because it is in the south this year. But given recent events I think …
Canadian entertainment
Not often you see a formula 1 race like that! I lost count of the number of times Jenson Button pitted, then he goes on to win the race! Vettel lost it on the last lap and was turned over at 1.04, Button was backed at very big odds. I wasn’t trading it but perhaps should have been given the weather conditions. Sometimes it’s just nice to watch the sport, especially when it’s this entertaining.
F1 season trading
There are some great trading opportunities through the course of F1 races, but you wouldn’t catch me betting on the drivers or constructors championships pre-season. There are just too many unknowns. However, here’s a trend that might be of interest and something that can be used to your advantage.
Over the past six years, partnerships have been increasingly fruitful for teams, particularly at the start of the season. In the first ten races of the 2005 season, only one one-two …
You thought racing had integrity issues!
Formula one race fixed at the weekend, some strange moves in odds on Tennis matches. These have all be topped by this remarkable boxing ‘match’. At least the winner had something to say about it.
Full story here: –
All 29 seconds seconds of the ’bout’ here: –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qqtYErML_M
Best motor sports trade ever?
I made a post with this here a little while ago: –
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2009/03/13/we-are-not-competitive/
I am not skilled at motor racing sports or have a strong enough opinion to trade it regulary, but if a trainer came out and said that a horse was not competitive, you would expect the price to drift quite a bit. That’s what I felt would happen in the Formula 1 markets when I heard these comments by McClaren on the state of play on their …
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