Category: Trading strategies
I lose money regulary…
Insert caveat – When I’m testing a new strategy!
In the thinner winter markets I often spend a lot of time revising data collected at other times of the year and inching forward on new ideas. I’m a great believer that no matter how much data you have, it’s more important to actually apply things into the market. There are two key reasons for this: –
(1) You need to be careful when Data mining, it can be statistical deja-vu. …
Trading correlated win markets
Last night we were presented with a good opportunity to trade a correlated market and it’s a favourite trade of mine.
Leeds were playing Chelsea and the opportunity was to oppose Chelsea without actually betting against them. This is because we were in the latter stages of a tournament. It’s important to note that this tactic only really has any logic when matches are taking place on different days.
In the latter stages of a tournament a red hot favourite …
Do simple things, very well….
I’m oftened ask what is the ‘secret’ to sports trading. Is there a Betfair trading strategy works and is really easy?
Of course there is no one liner that I can give that could possibly encapsulate all the experience I have gathered. I’ve participated in hundreds of thoasands of markets and know much about how the markets are priced and how they work, tha’s a lot of information that can’t be crunched into one line, but there is a small …
The Gambler’s fallacy
The Gambler’s fallacy is a psychological error, also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances. It is the belief that deviations from expected behaviour revert to mean. This is often referred to as ‘the law of averages’, I prefer to call it ‘The flaw of averages’
It layman’s terms it’s the feeling your mind gets when 15 reds pop up on the roulette table. There can’t be a sixteenth can there? So you bet black. In reality, …
Clever ways to trade and visualise football data
Market data can be boring in it’s flat form format. By re-interpreting this data you can not only get a bit of depth in a market but perhaps see things you haven’t seen before. I tend to visualise data, because this allows you to look at the data in a much more intuitive manner and this means you can spot opportunties easier as it significantly aids your reading of a market.
In the embedded video we use the multi market …
Are traders really the dominant force on Betfair?
You often read about traditional backers (or layers) moaning how traders ‘mess up’ the market.
I’ve posted elsewhere on the blog that I actually think trading creates a range of new opportunities for traditional strategies because they often chase prices into value territory, without actually realising it. So much so that I’ve started taking advantage of outlier prices. But that point aside, I do often wonder just how much trading goes on and on what scale? We already know you …
Chocolate and Nobel Prizes
I’ve taken this headline from a tongue in cheek article on the BBC web site.
This article reminded me of conversation I had with somebody recently about their ‘success’ in gambling markets. They came up with a thought recently, put it to use in the market and were walking away with hundreds a day. They came to me to ask if this was good. It was an outright gambling strategy, so I guess they also wanted to show me …
The comeback kings
When trading you are looking to lay at the shortest possible odds first then trade out at much higher odds, or vice versa. Doesn’t matter which, I’ll take either!
However you need something to happen for that opportunity to arise. In football there are many ways that this can happen but the main method to see a swing in odds is goals.
The perfect scenario is for a team to conceded a goal then comeback to win the match. This …
Newton would have used exchanges
Newton’s Third Law states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Sometimes people are perplexed at how you can correctly call price action on an exchange, but sometimes it’s quite easy; thanks to referancing Newton’s third law.
Every betting market must add up to 100%. It’s impossible for it to exceed that value in either direction for any prolonged period of time. So if something is coming in, in one direction, this means something else, either …
Trading the unexpected
Reading 5, Arsenal 7 – This was obvious the stand out football result from the last week. A most remarkable scoreline.
For so many goals to be scored in one match is rare, especially seven goals away from home; though Leeds fans may have more recent memories. But to win 7-5 from 4-0 down is remarkable. I’ve been scanning my records to see if I could find an example, but I can’t. 4-4 draw’s are rare, but I do …
Trading psychology in a nutshell
Some time ago I sat two people down and gave them each a simple trading strategy. I wanted to observe first hand how people executed them.
The reason I did this, was that it had become apparent to me sometime ago, that given the same set of instructions, people often execute differently. The difference appears to be psychological.
On one desk we had one person executing fairly well and making a small profit. On the other desk we had another …
Home advantage
One rule I have, is to favour positions where they is a psychological bias in the in the underlying event. What do I mean?
Take a look at the post I made about the Olympics not so long ago. This post documented home advantage bias with some academic evidence and concluded by explaining a number of reasons why this exists.
Imagine in a football match that we have a strong home team playing a weak away team and the away …
Mass aggregation
A rather opaque title for a football post.
This evening we have the Europa league football and I like this stage of the tournament because, as I mentioned in my other post recently, the mass of markets means I can make a hash of things and most likely still end in profit. Actually I didn’t say that, I said that you could improve your expectation of a profit by spreading your risk. But I hope you see what I …
Hedge your bets
Last night in the champions league we had a range of generally uncompetitive matches. Only Galatasaray vs Braga exhibited the characteristics of a match that could potentially be tight.
Of course you can never quite tell in Football. The average number of goals scored is quite low so results can be highly variable. A ball in the back of the net off a ‘wicked’ deflection, why are all deflections ‘wicked’?, could easily see a side take the lead unexpectedly. From …
Trading the Ryder Cup Golf
Looking forward to the Ryder cup this weekend. Nothing like a bit of Patrotism to spice up a sporting event!
I did a full write up on the Ryder Cup last time around but have been too busy to do so this year. One thing I remember really well from th 2008 Ryder cup was how ‘the tie’ played out in a competitive competition.
This year looks very competitive, though I was surprised to see home advantage priced in as …
What Betfair traders have forgotten
Back in the ‘good old days’ when gambling meant just backing only, your objective was clear. Back then, excuse the pun, you had to back something that won more often that the odds would suggest.
Participate in these modern markets and you would think that this quaint old fashioned strategy had long since completely died a death. Everybody seems to be doing all manner of things in the market and you could be forgiven for thinking you couldn’t do anything …
Losers, winners and strike rates
Further to my previous post about strike rates, I thought I add some flesh to the discussion.
At the end of the day people have a variety of different risk profiles. Your tolerance and reaction to risk is predominantly a psychological factor. The good thing is you can learn to overcome any psychological failings. When I was not as experienced as I am now I would often over analyse things and let the market be my master. Now I am …
High probability Betfair trading
Sounds nice doesn’t it, winning positions regularly topping up your account?
If you look at any ebook or system sellers nearly all of them focus on high probability trades. Basically positions that win very frequently. That’s great, it makes the person who just shelled out some cash feel really good. They keep winning on a regular basis and in an excited hubris they often credit the author with some positive feedback, then booooooom; It all goes wrong. Eventully reality dawns …
Wind assisted Tennis trade
Here is a neat insight into something that happens that you don’t realise the significance of at the time.
Last November I went to the World ATP finals in London, I watched Berdych vs Tsonga. I was sat opposite the service line, a useful spot to watch a match when you are interested in some of the finer detail. The thing they caught my eye was how high Berdych threw the ball before he served. I took some photo’s of …
Football trading – Who scores first?
A decent question to ask about a football match.
I first asked this question back in the early 80’s to help resolve the problem of forecasting draws. I knew that if the outsider scored first the chance of a draw was higher, but just how often did this happen?
The answer was a lot more than I imagined. But slowly I began to gain an appreciation of why. Over the full 90 minutes one teams advantage tends to bear out …
Tennis trading – Faking it
Great match last night between Tipsarevic and Ferrer, probably one of the best of the tournament for trading. I was getting a bit tired though near the end. Two of three kids are back at school and it’s early mornings again!
Ferrer went a set up only to find himself two sets to one down, only to turn it around and win on a tie break in the fifth. This match is a great illustration of how some matches are …
Winning Betfair Strategies
Roll up, I have a new system for you, for no effort and little skill you can bag £50k a year and Sir, for you today, it’s only…. Not £499, Not even £99, but just £37. But hurry I am closing offers on Friday and I only have 20 left!
I bet you heard that pitch before, it seems every day my inbox is fills up with offers telling me they have a foolproof system for me. A lot get …
Trading ‘to be relegated’ markets…
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers will have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic. That’s simple, it’s money!
Comparing the finishing positions of premier league teams over a number of seasons and several Deloitte reports, reveals a strong correlation each year between wage bill …
What changed?
Join the debate on the forum – https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=6516&start=10
I’m an avid market watcher and over time you expect all markets to evolve and change, I’ve always been keen to be one step ahead of that. Something that worked well in certain market conditions, sometimes doesn’t work a few months down the line; though some things are unchanging.
When a strategy fails you often have to look at yourself first. I made a cock up on a strategy not so long …
Trading the Olympics
Wow, what a busy few weeks it has been!
For me the School holidays and the Olympics on home soil has been too much temptation to miss. There are not many chances in life to do what I have done over the last couple of weeks, so I’ve jumped at the chance to do it. It has been really great experiance.
Doing that has meant putting trading on the back burner recently. But that’s no problem really, a couple of …
US PGA Golf
I’m currently working a few positions into this market.
I like the US tournaments because you can benefit from decent liquidity in the run up to the start without having to get up a ridiculous O’clock in the morning.
No major movers at the moment, Lee Westwood has drifted a bit. Rory McIlroy looks a little short to me. OK he has an incentive to win, but his form has been a little erratic since his first major. It’s not …
Inspiration overload!
The motto for the Olympics this year is ‘inspire a generation’. I think they are delivering in the UK, can’t comment on the view from the outside in.
Inspiration in an important word. Inspiration shows the way, leads people and asks them to step forward and take things to a new level, inspiration is good.
Seeing somebody successful should inspire you, not make you jealous. That first emotion is a strength, the second a weakness; you can little from it. …
The most challenging race ever?
First day of Goodwood was quiet with nothing spectacular coming out of any of the races. I didn’t really get any stand out results from the card, just plodded along all day pulling in steady numbers. Overall a nice result on the day, but no thanks to Goodwood.
Today we have Frankel running. I think this is possibly the most uncompetitive group race I have ever seen in the UK? It’s difficult to do anything useful in a market like …
Betfair create Olympic market without winner
I’ve been interested in what the Olympics couldn’t bring on the trading front for Bet Angel users. Athletics markets are pretty quiet in general, but are often full of surprises. Nothing is guaranteed in sport, especially where markets are tricky to price.
I watched the Men’s Cycling race today with half a eye on whether Mark Cavendish was to get his just reward, alas it was not to be. As the competitors re-entered the streets of London I started collecting …
Good old Barney Curley
Flicking through the racing today I noticed three Barney Curley runners on the card. Whenever a Curley runner is on the card it’s interesting; when there are three, even more so.
Barney Curley has a long history of landing a gamble. One of hte most famour was the the Yellow Sam betting coup and more recently another in May 2010.
Because of this Curley runners usually attract a lot of attention in the market. People fear they may be …
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