Category: Tennis
Marray, Murray, Wimbledon,Tennis and Fish
Really looking forward to the Wimbledon mens final today, when history will be made one way or another. Maybe we will see a Marray / Murray double, how funny would that be?
Unfortunately I will not be able to witness it first hand as I will stuck in mud / traffic at the British Grand Prix. I didn’t figure Nadal would go out of the tournament so early and that Murray would make it to the final. It’s also a …
Best Wimbledon trading ever?
This has been a great Wimbledon so far. Lots of seeds faltering and some outright fails in the mix already. The biggest coming last night when the second seed, Nadal, spectacularly crashed out despite starting at decimal odds of 1.01. It could be my imagination but it’s difficult to remember so many opportunities to turn over such short odds when trading, even for a small number of ticks.
It prompted me to look back at previous Wimbledon tournaments to see …
Good start for traders at Wimbledon
There are three main surface types that Tennis matches are played on. Hard, Grass and Clay. Over time I’ve got to understand just how important each surface type is and how it affects matches.
Which surface do you think throws up the most competitive matches? I’ll answer later in the week.
Yesterday saw several good chances to profit from a range of matches. Red hot favourites struggled to break down stubborn opponents, see Nadal’s match, and good starts by rising …
Bizarre end to Queens Club Tennis final
In the last twelve years I’ve seen a lot of weird things in sport. Unexpected endings or remarkable twists and turns. Today I learnt something new about Tennis, Injuring an official will cost you the match, no matter how important the match.
David Nalbandian has done well at Queens this week and was doing well in the final. He vented his frustration on an advertising hoarding after losing a game and injured a line judge. The result was disqualification. Never …
Rain stops play, starts trade
After a generally uncompetitive end to the women’s Tennis at the French Open I was looking forward to a decent final in the men’s. Fresh from the Aussie open blockbuster I had hoped we could see some very competitive action, not forgoing Nadal’s dominance on clay.
The first set was a bit of a mish mash with five breaks in seven games before Nadal went on to go two sets up. Djokovic needed some something to turn it around and …
A tale of two different tournaments
You couldn’t wish for two more different tournaments in the French open this year. On the men’s side Nadal is playing consistently and has eased through to the latter stages. His opponents meanwhile have stuttered and at times looked in real trouble. If you look at the men’s draw; all this has meant that Nadal, ‘the king of clay’, has shortened from 1.72 at the start of the tournament to just 1.58. All the other top seeds have drifted.
On …
Another Murray moment
Andy Murray conspired to throw up another great trading match today at the French Open. Unfortunately I had to miss it as I had an appointment with the bank and solicitors!
Murray went off at short odds and traded as high as 21’s before going on to win. 1-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2. His opponent traded at very short odds before Murray’s comeback, much to the disbelief of people who kept backing his opponent at ever larger odds.
I did have …
Serena Williams crashes out of French Open
Low backers were handed an almightly thumping when Serena Williams crashed out of the first round of the French open this evening.
It is the first time the 2002 champion has lost in the opening round of a grand slam event. Those who read my article of last year on forecasting decline in players may have had half an eye on Williams, but few would have honestly expected defeat this early and in this manner. Most speculative short layers should …
French open tennis – When it’s good to see red!
Today sees the start of the French open tennis and it’s one of those moments when the red clay surface will often mean green for traders.
Grand Slams often produce good matches and the slower surface at Roland Garros will bring shot making and athletism to the fore.
Early rounds of grand slams often bring up very shot prices, but the odd shock. So I’m generally looking to oppose red hot favourites in the early rounds hoping for a slip …
Tennis traders turn blue into green
The tournament in Madrid has caught my attention this week. I haven’t traded it much in the past, but the move to blue clay caught my attention. I love uncertainty, as it often creates opportunity.
Madrid is playing on a new surface this year, blue clay. Officially the surface is supposed to play the same as red clay but the top players are complaining that it’s playing nothing like normal, “It’s too slippery”. Players have complained that it is hard …
Underneath a legendary Tennis match
Not many words can describe the fantastic Men’s final at the Australian open tennis, so I wont try. But to say it was special, would definitely be an understatement. I started the match half dressed having not risen early enough to get changed properly, broke for a full Sunday lunch and still returned for a hour of excitement. Amazing stuff.
The great thing about these matches is that pretty much any trading strategy you adopt will win. If somebody goes …
Bumps and ripples
What can you tell about a Tennis match before it has started? Quite a lot actually.
The market is pretty accurate at discounting value into a match and assessing the relative strengths of different players, from that you can plot the most likely path through a match and its progression. You can also hunt for bumps and ripples in that path for odds that are most likely to be reached and how. If you do this, you will see that …
Caught-siding
Courtsiding is the method used by people betting on Tennis to beat the in-play delay. The in-play delay is put on matches, such as the Australian open tennis, to stop people from placing bets before other people get to see what happened. It doesn’t work!
Because of the incentive of low risk profit, people will go to great lengths to beat the clock and this has become a feature of many in-play markets, not just Tennis. Like Biff in back …
Murray Matrix
Looking forward to seeing Andy Murray in action tonight.
Last night I bagged 25 decent winning trades from the overnight matches. I use Tennis Trader to work out key points in a match and what odds are likely to be traded around key points. By looking up these key points in advance I can set up a trade that will trigger at or around those points and offset to a value that will lock in a profit. All markets exhibit …
Aussie open – open!
Just about to head off to bed, but in half an hour the Australian open tennis will kick into gear. It’s a great opportunity to get stuck into the Tennis, even if you are not into Tennis, as a lot of matches will appear in the UK early in the morning when not much else is going on.
I have set up Bet Angel to do some simple automation in the early rounds of the tournament as I know where …
Big over-reaction
Sometimes I just want to roll Gael Monfils up in a bundle and kiss him.
One of my biggest ever wins came on a match with Monfils in it. He overstretched himself and called for the trainer. I had just backed his opponent and his priced rocketed in and netted me a very lucky big profit, so I greened up. After a brief spell with the trainer Monfils carried on and looked like he had never been trouble and went …
Is Darts the new Tennis?
Some great matches again at the PDC world darts championship this week. Dramatic comebacks from impossible positions, turnarounds, low odds turned over, high odds coming in, big matched bet turnover. Darts certainly has the characteristics of a great trading market. It’s popularity is picking up now as well.
Its scoring and ‘feel’ is similar to Tennis, you also have familiar concepts such as a break of throw / serve. But a big advantage of Darts is that the games are …
Awesome match
At last, a real classic match to talk about at the US Open. Djokovic through to the final after defeating Federer, again, in the semi final from two match points down. A great trading match as well, with some clear cut entry and exit points.
Three day game
Andy Murray finally put to bed his forth round match at the US open. But the fact it took three days highlights one of the potential issues with trading Tennis. Do you take a long term or short term position, do you hold a position or close it out at defined points?
There are two sides to the coin. The fact an event has no definitive end point vastly increases the volatility and the chance of getting two prices matched …
Passive Tennis trading
Missed most of the US open last night as I opted to play Tennis rather than watch it, but I still profited on the matches last night.
I also had a nice reminder of how using stats can show a different version of the match than the score. I won 6-4 6-4 last night, but the first set was quite tight and I effectively won it with a break of serve in the ninth game. The second set was not …
Well done Djokovic
Well played and and excellent job so far this year. A remarkable season so far, I wonder what heights he will reach this year?
I managed to call the final just right as it was easy to read and conformed to most entry and exit points. Wimbledon has been great this year. It’s probably the best tournament I have traded in terms of results and very few mistakes. This is rare, as you expect a few howlers through a grand …
Wimbledon 2004
I’ll never forget the Womans final of 2004 when Sharapova defeated defending champion Serena Williams. It was really the first big win I had on Tennis, which I had traded infrequently up to that point, so it was a bit of a watershed moment. Would be nice to get a result like that today but I’m not going to bet on it! Should be an interesting final though. Kvitova was tipped up to me early on in the tournament but …
Meanwhile
OK, I’m still digesting the news a bit. But while I do that, there is still some great sport on.
The two Wimbledon semi finals are priced around the same level, 1.58 for the favourite, but we have two different contests IMHO.
The head-to-heads tell a different tale: –
Djokovic should be favourite, sure, but Tsonga leads Djokovic 5-2 in head to heads. Though this is the first time they’ve met on grass.
Nadal should also easily be the favourite …
Feast or farce
Not difficult to choose what to do this afternoon. Yes there was some racing on but when end up with 15 minute gaps and one race at Pontefract had just two runners, though curiously this was the best race of the day for me.
Over at Wimbledon there were quite a few decent matches and opportunties so it was this that held the main interest for me today. As a point of interest, if you want evidence that people are …
A week full of opportunities
We are now just beyond the half way point in the year. So double what you have made so far and you end up around your annual total!
Glad I am sat here and not half drunk on some beach. OK I lied, but any regret at not getting sun burnt has been tempered by some fantastic results in the market this week. I’ve really picked up speed in June and I am heading for a great month overall. Despite …
Back to earth with a bump
In line with my objective to take more time off this year, I had a well timed break after after Royal Ascot to head off for a BIG wedding abroad. What a fantastic experience it was and how I wish I could have extended the trip to the post wedding bash on the edge of the mediterranean. Wimbledon was calling though, so I had to make do with what was a fantastic few days instead. We packed so much in …
Tennis – Grass vs Clay
What statistical evidence is there to support the differences between grass and clay court Tennis?
Yesterday we highlighted some ATP data that told you the difference in how much shorter a point is on grass. Winning a point on grass is an average of 1/3rd the time on clay. My first instinct on reading this statistic was that a match on grass must be shorter than on clay.
Ever curious, I downloaded and analysed ten years worth of grand slam …
Grass is for cows
Wimbledon is the only grand slam on grass, but it wasn’t always that way. Two other tournaments were played on grass on the grand slam circuit. The US Open, was played on grass until 1974, and the Australian Open, was played on grass until 1988.
Very few players would not admit that a win at Wimbledon would be a career defining moment. But it’s not through trying that players fail; it’s generally down to how each surface plays. Research by …
It’s a trick…
Shot.
Great value entertainment and trading fodder today at Queens, in the traditional warm up for Wimbledon. I thought Murray did a great battling job in Paris and his display against Roddick the other day was just awesome. Today, after an early wobble, he closed out against Tsonga and did some headline making shots as well, but in a different manner to the Roddick match. Hold onto your hats as Wimbledon fever is almost here. Can’t wait!
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