Category: Using Bet Angel
Congratulations Scott
You have probably come across Scott’s blog, https://www.sportismadeforbetting.com
It’s always an interesting read. I am hopeful of a non sports post on their soon as Scott’s wife has just given birth. Just wanted to register my congratulations.
Better with ten men
It’s always been frustrating to see people comment that a team seems to play better with ten men, the stats don’t back this up. That said, this isn’t a great example; as the team who had the player sent off did go on to win! However, you can see that the price reacted quite clearly when Da Silva was sent off.
I haven’t modelled a sending off accurately just yet but, I am getting there. On this occasion the market …
Are cats good at trading?
I did a post on rats trading, so I had to share this users post on the forum with you: –
“Don’t know if this has happened to anyone else, but was trading a 3rd favourite today, odds of 8 – 8.2. I just couldn’t get it right. Ended up losing £11 on the race before the 5 minute to go warning. At this I decided to have a break and went to the shop to get some fags. …
Manipulators may be good
Saw this interesting piece on Betfair’s website which talks about the role of market manipulators and how they make the market more efficient, not less, through their practices.
There was a post recently on this blog about spoofers that fits well into this piece. I guess that what ever market you are in, you are always going to get people trying to influence prices. I think this probably works better in some markets than others, so it’s probably a skill …
In esteemed company
Just learn that one of the local pubs is hosting an official party conference this week. I may pop along to hear what will probably be some amusing policy decisions.
Hustle
Was this a hustle or just a case of fat fingers? On Wednesday we saw another one of those odd moments when the price on something comes crashing in for no apparant reason. I posted up some examples on the blog before where I got something matched at tiny prices that should have been 1000. On this race we saw something matched at 10’s that really should have been 20’s, not just once but twice!
Premium charge anniversary
It seems to have slipped quietly into the background, but in September last year we saw the announcement of the premium charge. After the furore of last year, there seems little fuss to ‘celebrate’ the anniversary. Maybe there really are only a few payers of the charge?
For my part, Betfair was an easy sell in the past. Get better odds and trade sports like financial markets. But the premium charge muddied that message somewhat. I think the post by …
Strike rates
I know I have got all excited about strike rates recently but….. I must insert some an important caveat when addressing strike rates in general, not all strikes rates are created equally.
If I get a monkey, I can give him a set up that gets him a 50% strike rate, not hard. With the same monkey I can increase this to 80-90% by tweaking some parameters. There is a simple trade, which requires more than monkey like intelligence, that …
Man Utd time
Couldn’t help but watch the Manchester Derby. Man United desperately needed a late goal at home and guess what, the officials managed to find nearly seven minutes of extra time to allow Man Utd the best possible chance to score. Has this happened before I ask?
The average extra time added is around three minutes. So seven minutes is right at the far end of the bell curve, given that it represents 15% extra time in the half. But what …
Writers block
A case of writers block is on the cards. I recently agreed to start writing for another magazine, the first article will be published next month.
While writing to national press standards is demanding, I do quite enjoy it as it makes me feel I have left some legacy from all my participation and research on the markets, this is why I talk about my work also. It would be a huge waste to never document or talk about a …
Minimax theorem
I bumped into this when I was studying game theory a long time ago. I recently revisited this again and it prompted me to put a post up on my blog for people who had not looked at the benefits of optimal play in a game, especially in a zero sum game. Very often people follow completely the wrong path for psychological reasons and minimax can help you make roughly the right decisions. For a primer, have a look at …
Nice screenshot
Somebody emailed me another nice images of a Bet Angel screen posted on a blog. View the image by clicking on this text, it’s too wide to put on the blog.
You can see three advanced charts on the left, you can user define the size, shape and data displayed on the advanced charting. Next you see the three ladders with full market depth. Then you have the market overview charting scaled to show the front of the field …
New record
As I have previously stated, my strike has gone up quite a bit recently. One practical upshot of this is that I just set a new record for consecutive winning trades!
When I sit down to trade the first race of the day today I will have successfully traded the previous 70 races without a single loss. My previous best was set back in October 2007 at 66. I hope that I can push the forward again today but it …
Semenya tests as ‘inter gender’
Breaking news this morning that tests on Semenya confirm that she has some inter gender / hermaphroditic condition. Looks like this story, like Semenya, is going to run and run. It’s a terrible situation to be in really isn’t it, for the individual involved and for sport. Anyhow, full story here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/athletics/8249948.stm
St. Leger so far
Things seem to be going OK this week, better than I expected. The Doncaster markets are a bit jumpy but by and large I am pulling in some steady but unspectacular results. My strike rate continues to improve and in the last 106 races I have lost in only 7.
Yesterday was fair, but acceptable and we still have the two biggest days coming up today and tomorrow, so that should help get to a good week. That said the …
St. Leger meeting
I must admit, from a trading perspective, I haven’t got a great deal out of this meeting in the past. I’m sort of hoping that this year will be different but I’m not setting high expectations to only be disappointed. This month has started well and my strike rate is still climbing so I’d like to hold onto that and see if I can get a good result.
My only advice, given the prior years, is to take things a …
Not playing tonight
No activity from me this evening as it’s my fourteenth wedding anniversary and we are out for a posh meal and some pampering. Traditional musings say this is an Ivory anniversary, but modern says Gold so it looks like a Spandau Ballet single is in order, LOL!
Just a quick post on the England vs Croatia game.
I reckon the odds should be 1.61 England, 7.20 Croatia and 4.1 the Draw.
Current market prices are similar but too short on …
There is some value in that
I’ve often used this phrase and others often use this phrase, mainly incorrectly, so I felt I should qualify what it means!
Simply backing or laying something ‘Because it is value’ just isn’t good enough. If we see something priced at 1.50 and we think is should be priced at 1.20 there is clearly defined value, 30% in fact. We could feel pretty confident about putting some decently money on that. While it may not win this time, doing it …
Simple scalping
We uploaded this video recently and it has proved pretty popular so I thought I would put this on the blog. It’s just a simple guide to the thought process that goes into a simple scalp. On this video we get £40 gross with a couple of quick scalps on something priced at 6’s. Double click the video to enlarge. Enjoy…
Fallon Friday
I think this is how I will note today in the diary. All the Fallon races showed a lot of activity and while I couldn’t get each one right, it turned out the moves in the market were so strong you only need to get one right to make a useful total. It will be interesting to see if this carries on tomorrow. RUK quoted 6/4 for Fallong to get a winner today, didn’t happen and never looked likely IMHO.…
Friday Fallon fireworks
I expected the return of Kieren Fallon to produce some renewed betting interest in the markets this afternoon but it’s been a real surprise to see how much movement there has been. This isn’t directly Fallon related but it’s been one of the most swing oriented starts to the day I have seen in a while, with big moves right across the card.
The Fallon races have produced massive drifts on the first two rides this afternoon. The market seems …
Customise your trading
One of the capabilities that has been built into Bet Angel for a long time is the ability to dock, undock and resize a whole raft of screens, functions and tools.
I browse across the blogs often and came across this nice screenshot from Cran, a Bet Angel user. I think it demonstrates a neat set up that demonstrates this capability. Basically you can see three ladders on the right and the market overview on the left but re-sized to …
Renaissance
August turned out to be a great month for me, building on a solid July. It was right up there with some of the best weeks and months I’ve had. The good thing is, I know why.
If you keep good records, you can monitor and improve your performance and that alone is worth its weight in gold. On top of that, if you actively monitor performance and see a decline, you have the means to address that.
Late last …
Laytown
Sounds like a small town where people favour only one side of the book. But in fact its a racecourse in Ireland.
This race course captivates me each year. When I am better organised and have more time on my hands, I might go and visit the course for the racing one day. It’s obviously something to do with the sea, sand and the s…………..starting post that draws me to the venue. I said last year I would go, but …
Monday Madness
It’s that time of year again, the weather in the UK is rubbish so it must be a public holiday.
Today brings us nine race cards and seven in the UK. All the races in the UK are scheduled to go off 5 minutes after another. On loading them into Guardian this morning I noticed that Huntingdon is likely to clash with Newcastle and Cartmel with Ripon, so bear that in mind. Of course, if one course has a problem …
Roddick questions Twitter ruling
Interesting piece today about the use of twitter by Tennis players. I think reading comments can be pretty useful but it seems the authorities are getting a little nervous with players comments. It’s amazing what a following more popular twitters can have. Roddick has nearly 110k followers and Serena Williams nearly 1m!! We are also on Twitter but aren’t quite as popular, yet!
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/tennis/8228398.stm
New market overview screen
Anybody who has been trading the market for any length of time will know the importance of ‘framing’ the market. A sports market is significantly different from, say, the stock market as a sports market will always gravitate to 100%, the stock market could go anywhere! In a sports market it’s impossible for anything to move in any direction of any length of time before a corrective sets in and pushes the market back to 100%. With this is mind …
Frustrating pt2
Actually the day didn’t turn out too bad in the end, despite the quality! It was a good finish to the evening racing which now predominately switches to the all weather courses. Ffos las broke another great winning streak so I think I will have to wave bye bye to the chance of beating my longest winning run this year.
Watched the Barca vs Shaktar match and it was incredibly dull, I should have done something more useful in hindsight. …
Barcelona vs Shaktar
My models suggest a price of around 5.50 for the draw. Currently it is trading at 5.2 to back so this suggests, for once, there is value in laying the draw here. Even if I use a pessimistic view I wouldn’t shorten the price to less than 5.35. That said there isn’t a great deal to play for in this match.
Most of these assumptions revolve around the price of Barca. I would price them around 1.36 versus the 1.42 …
Frustrating
Logged on this morning to see Hamilton washed out on the last proper evening racing of the ‘summer’. A disappointing end to the evening racing. Having had a pretty positive week I was hoping to finish in style this week but it looks like I will have to settle for a more mundane performance. That said, it does look like I will hit my highest ever strike rate this month so it’s nice to end the summer on a bang.…
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