Category: Using Bet Angel
It’s over
Last night finally saw the World Cup end.
It’s been a great couple of months but I’m exhausted, so I am personally glad to see the end of this busy period. It’s really great having such opportunities, but it’s impossible to work flat out like this for any length of time. Time for some recuperation and hindsight. It has been very rewarding though, with last week bringing in my second biggest week ever.
I’ve also gathered lots of data to …
Going Dutch
This isn’t a pick! I think the Spanish have done a good job so far tactically and may test the Dutch defence in a way it hasn’t been tested so far this World Cup. This is a reference to what I will be aiming to do this afternoon. I have Dutchand German friends just round the corner from where I live, but as the German’s didn’t get to the final I will be going Dutch for the final. As I …
Newmarket July meeting
I’ve never really put this one in the diary as a meeting that exhibits great characteristics but this year it feels different and is much more positive. Don’t get me wrong its a much better than average meeting, it’s just never stood out in previous years. It’s been a good start to July, so I am hoping the last day of the meeting will bring further rewards. Typically the last day is the best.
Small fields
If I had a small field in as my garden I would be happy. But a small field when trading is not such a happy occurrence. Look at today’s card and there are seven meetings but only 5 races have field sizes in double figures!
Straight off this tells me what sort of day this is going to be, trickier than usual. But its alarming that none of these courses can seemingly cobble together a decent field. No doubt there …
7/7
Was having a shower this morning when my wife reminded me of the significance of the date. It’s amazing how events can quickly slip into the past and we should all be reminded of those events, lest we forget.
I was in town this morning and did a little piece for CNBC. So far I haven’t had enough time with them to show them the wider world of modern betting markets, but I am sure it will come! I hope …
Germany vs Spain
The market is priced for 2.40 goals or thereabouts with a 1.20 goals to Spain. The Germans have stormed through to the semi final whereas the Spanish appear to have ground out results but both teams slipped up in the group stages.
Some interesting notes I’ve copied from elsewhere: –
- Victory at Euro 2008 was only Spain’s second win in eight competitive games against the Germans.
- Germany are unbeaten in three previous World Cup games against the Spanish.
- Overall, the
Uruguay vs Netherlands
I think you would have to fancy the Netherlands in this match, which the market is doing by one goal. But it is also pricing in very few goals, just short of 2.30. So the market summarises this as a tight match with the Dutch should win.
I would secretly like a Germany / Netherlands final as it would add some serious spice to the mix, but I suspect Uruguay will feel they have an equal chance. A lot rests …
My lucky day
Nothing lucky about the result which was fine, but it was more the manner in which it was achieved. Often you can wade into a market and everything goes wrong. Nothing works the way it ‘should’ and bad postions get worse and so do good ones. Yesterday was unusual, in that I forcast a poor day but I didn’t really get any significant negatives yesterday. It just seemed that when I got myself into a hole, it quickly offered me …
No pleasure
OK, so I got the Netherlands win right, Murray’s defeat at Wimbledon and Forlan scoring with Uruguay qualifying for the semis. But other than the Netherlands win, the other two were a little bitter. A couple of cruicial points would have seen the Murray match take a different complexion and a long overdue UK mens finalist at Wimbledon. As for Ghana’s defeat, it would have been nice to see a win rather than that last minute ‘cheating’ drama. I am …
Reaching a climax
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the …
June
June was fine, nothing amazing but better than last year. Had some difficult patches, some highlights, but it just sort of happened without anything stunning happening in either direction. I just ground out a result each day.
The whole month got a shot in the arm with the World Cup and Wimbledon, both of which were welcome additions to what was often pretty poor racing. I put some renewed focus into these areas this month. The launch of Tennis trader…
More about penalties
Following the recent chatter on penalties, I note the absence of them so far! Somebody posted on the forum about a very useful tool that you can use.
I didn’t know this existed, so thanks to the poster for finding it. It confirms what I was talking about, but more importantly it could prove very useful if a match goes to penalties. This is because it allows you to examine all previous results from the penalty takers and …
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having …
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when …
The maths behind penalities – Part One
Groups stages, tight games, can’t afford to lose, Germany, England. This must only add up to one thing, penalties!
Are we going to suffer again, will there be the same agony as in prior years? Penalties is another area I have looked at and I think the findings may be of use to any prospective England goalkeeper facing a penalty, football traders may also benefit.
First off, you can reach some easy conclusions. From spot to net, the ball will …
That match
Given the gloom and doom I am almost tempted to back England this evening. But much of that depends on price and what the team looks like when it is announced. The match is priced for 2.56 goals with a 1.60 advantage to England, yeah right! England just haven’t looked a potent threat upfront and I think it’s optimistic to imagine a free flowing high scoring game, lets hope I am wrong!
If you look at the world cup so …
Announcing – Tennis Trader
While there are no English men in the Wimbledon for the fist time in history this year, there will be plenty of traders.
This year you will be able to trade it with complete confidence thanks to a new tool we have created for you, Tennis trader. Whether you are a experienced Tennis trader or not, this unique tool will transform your ability to trade Tennis matches.
The problem with trading any sport is guessing how the odds are likely …
Not a joke
Honestly, not a joke; but this is the book I am reading at the moment just before I go to bed. It’s actually a really good read and highly recommended for sports traders!
1.05 about to be turned over?
Should England pack up and come home? Traded at 1.05 to qualify last night must have those backers quivering. After failing to beat Algeria, which most teams in the English football league could surely achieve, has there ever been a more defining moment in English national football?
For many, many years we have had loads of great individuals but seemingly no team. Last night showed this up in clear light again and surely the time has come to stop picking …
England’s fate already known
When England step out onto the pitch this evening they will know what they need to do. If the USA get a good result against Slovenia, then England really need to dispatch Algeria with confidence. If not it all goes to the last game. I say this because the English will probably want to avoid the impressive Germans. No point in holding out for a draw in the knockout phase is there?
The US are priced at 2.20 goals against …
My journey – Part one
To understand where I am today, you need to wind the clock back to my childhood and the spark that created everything.
Many moons ago I was born to a pretty average family. My father was a carpenter and my Mum worked in a petrol station. My family had pretty unspectacular lineage and most of my immediate relatives lived within a few miles radius. I didn’t get the best start in life (that’s another story) but I loved playing sport, …
Ascot
It’s that time of year when the Queen nips out the house and down the road to have a fiver or two on a few nags. I’ll also be looking to put a few fivers on them as well, but from behind my desk. When I’ve finished all my work on betting exchanges, maybe I will nip up the road for once! Ascot has always been a key part of the summer racing and it’s no surprise with five days …
Betfair signs deal with Samsung
Betfair’s wholly owned subsidiary Betfair TV has signed a pan-European commercial agreement with Korean electronics giant Samsung Electronics, under which the two companies will deploy sports betting and gaming applications on Samsung’s Connected TV platform which is powered by the Yahoo! Widget Engine.
Betfair TV has developed a real-time betting interface that will bring live Betfair betting applications directly to Samsung’s Connected TVs and Samsung Connected Blu-ray Disc Players. The application uses a direct link to the data that drives …
Blunt start by England
In fact, most of the matches have been pretty blunt, which seems to often be the case in the world cup early matches. England had a great chance to really get off to a good start after taking the lead so early, but I don’t feel there were aggressive enough going forward. England now need to convincingly win the next two games or they could end up on the wrong side of the draw.
No doubt the following image will …
USA 1 – 0 England
Not a premonition but a recollection of times gone past. Until England drew the US in the group stages I wasn’t even aware of this episode of sporting history. It seems England have always been under-performers, but perhaps were a bit unlucky on this occasion. You would get 17’s for a repeat performance tonight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_v_United_States_%281950%29
Ratings for today: –
England vs US – Market is forecasting 2.50 goals with at least 1.70 to England, leaving a paltry 0.30 to the …
Bad light stops fish
A great Tennis trading match today and a classic bit of sportsman ship from Mardy Fish. Fish wins the first set 6-4, Murray storms back to win the next set 6-1. Fish goes three up in the final set, Murray rallies to tie the match at 3-3. With the momentum behind him, Murray feels he can finish Fish off. But Fish does the ‘professional’ thing and ends the match due to ‘bad light’. If Fish was under pressure in that …
Happy 10th Birthday Betfair
It was ten years ago today that Betfair took their first bets. It is amazing to see what has happened in the intervening decade. I joined the fray about 9 days later, I’ll talk more about what happened from there in a few days time. I’ve sent Betfair some personal greetings, I’m interested to see if they reciprocate.
England lose on penalities
Not a prediction, this happened at the weekend. OK it’s only Soccer Aid, but losing in a penalty shoot out on the Sunday before World Cup week isn’t the best omen is it?
Still at least that’s out of the system, so it can’t happen in the world cup, can it? I can’t figure out why England players in any form can’t win a shoot out. Quite a few years ago I ‘qualified’ for a world cup tournament where I …
Concern for missing commentator
Anybody who was trading the races at Hexham on Saturday couldn’t have missed that the Dougie Fraser was missing. Good old Matt Chapman had to fill in as best he could from the booth, but by the evening it was clear that something was wrong.
Full story in a lot of newspapers yesterday. I have linked to an article here.
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