Category: Using Bet Angel
Three million up
Not my P&L LOL! But Betfair’s customer base, which has now just breached the 3 million mark according to various press comments.
While three million sounds impressive it’s really difficult to know if the relevance of this metric. Where are those three million, what do they bet on, sports, games, casino? One question you can try to answer is how many are active. Last year Betfair said they have 652,000 active accounts and if their active accounts are tracking actual …
Not again!
London marathon this weekend so I will be lending my annual support to the runners and friends that I know are running. If you are running, please let me know so I can give you a cheer as well.
Once again my feet will be itching to shuffle around the 26.2 mile course, but once again I will not be able too. My right Achilles has responded well to a new training regime, which I was hopeful would allow me …
Three’s a crowd
With another general election TV debate tonight I’ll be keeping an eye on the markets. After the last debate it seemed clear that Clegg won but I was surprised at how that translated into market movements. I am a big sceptic on polls during an election. Telling somebody how you will vote is an anathema to most people, so I don’t believe that a stranger asking how you are going to vote generates a valid opinion. As always, my preference …
Make cash from ash
I hope you are not one of many being inconvenienced by the erupting volcano in Iceland, or the national air bodies, depending on how you see it. The office is quieter this Monday thanks to the failure of quite a few people failing to return from overseas after the school Easter holidays. My wife spoke to a friend last night, still stuck in the US with little hope of return this week. Scheduled ETA at least two weeks away, I …
Bit of a Kop out
No surprise to see Tom Hicks and George Gillett exit stage left at Liverpool. Struggling to refinance their debt they have to find a viable exit, but it’s a terrible time to sell. Liverpool are heading for a poor season and the attractiveness of the club must have been dented by their lack of success, not only this season but in prior seasons also. For the amount of wages they pay they really should be performing better, but I am …
The politics of betting
I think this general election could turn out to be quite a good trading opportunity.
When trading you ideally want uncertainty and I think we have plenty around at the moment. Last nights debate added some more to mix as well. I thought it was funny to follow the coverage then this morning see all the new polls coming in. I’d be surprised if the election is decided on one debate, especially the one I saw last night. But there …
Charting how you want it
I recently put this video up of how to connect to the Bet Angel charting spreadsheet that is supplied with Bet Angel. We put this spreadsheet in the product as a demonstration of not only the spreadsheet capabilities in Bet Angel, but also to give you some additional tools to play around with. I often use this spreadsheet to play with a variety of charts and technical indicators. Some are really interesting but others that prove useful in traditional financial …
Italian end of season matches
Since my first posting some time ago there have been plenty more Italian matches with strange prices. However, not all have ended up with the predicted result. There appears to be a process of reversion to mean going on! I was lucky on this one, as rather than backing the draw I opted to back Lazio, who went on to win. Because of the propensity for these matches to be unpredictable I wonder whether an element of this unusual pricing …
US Masters
Picking a winner in any major golf tournament is a very, very tricky task. There are only a few strokes between the top of the leader-board and being out of contention. Any body who has played golf will know that a few strokes difference is only a hook, slice or shank away.
Anybody who has been on my course recently should know the angle I will be taking on this event. But the great unknown here is how Woods will …
April fools day at Folkstone
Ahh, you can tell the flat season is back. How? Well, when you get days like the one we had this week at Folkstone!
As flat races are over shorter distances all horses have to be loaded into stalls. Well I say all horses, sometimes a horse just wont go into that big metal thing in front of them. Typically it is a small percentage of races, maybe about 1 in 20 where a horse refuses to load and gets …
Cheltenham – Post-mortem
OK, it’s been a little while since Cheltenham finished, but I’ve been very busy on other projects and I have also been having a bit of a break before the start of the flat season proper.
Lets start from a top level. Measuring the activity to post time in the markets, a total of 26 races generated matched bet turnover on Betfair of £84.3m this year. In 2009 it generated £83m, so overall the matched bet turnover was up about …
Lacking inspiration
Had a good look at the champions league this week, but just lacked inspiration to do or say much about it. The markets were pretty much spot on with their pricing and with the matches being first leg matches, I just couldn’t muster up any wisdom or opportunities. The second legs will provide more interest and hopefully more opportunities.
I’d like to say something, but making up something for the sake of it isn’t my style and it may be …
Made in Dubai
Well I did say it was probably worth doing! I managed to get slightly more than the £50 I managed last year, but was helped by a number of favourable mitigating factors and a bit of luck. Sometimes you need that to pull out a good result. The race itself must be one of few where the prize money dwarfs the turnover on Betfair. It was a great race as well, probably the most expensive photo finish in racing history. …
Much fun was had
I found myself at the new Wembley stadium yesterday, the first chance I have had to go. It was a useful coincidence as the match was on a Sunday, my usual day off, and it is my birthday this week. So it seemed a good chance to ‘go large’ and have a decent day out.
I took my eldest daughter and my son with me as well so they could experience the occasion. It was great and well worth the …
Even odder
Thanks for all the people that emailed in about the Chievo vs Catania match. Many different views and opinions on this match. Also thanks to my Italian friends that got in contact to talk about this particular game.
No surprise that the match ended up 1-1 as strongly predicted by the market. 95% of all the money on the match was traded on the draw which is pretty much unheard of in a soccer match. There is vigorous discussion on …
Very odd
Not often I talk about Italian football but this one can’t go by without comment.
Chievo vs. Catania
Cheivo are 3.15 to win this match, nothing unusual there. But the really unusual thing this that the draw is priced at odds on. You don’t see that very often, in fact, you never see it. Draw’s occur fairly randomly and the odds for the draw is one of the easiest things to predict. I’ve never seen fit to predict a draw …
Cheltenham day three
That’s more like it! Today was easily the best day of the week so far, but not without it’s cock ups.
In the first race I was pushing for a decent total, but successfully went in-play, again, when I forgot to SP my final orders in the market, Doh! I had some frantic sorting out to do, but escaped. It was entirely my fault and I felt a bit of a wally. Things got better from there though and I …
Europa League
More fun planned this evening with an infinite range of permutations available on each match. But the two English matches do look the most interesting.
Fulham are 3-1 down, but a home goal would create a massive difference to that score line and you get the feeling anything is possible with Fulham. I wouldn’t bet against Fulham pulling it off this evening. The match is priced for 2.6 goals with a slight advantage to the home team. I think that’s …
Cheltenham day two
Well I don’t think I will reach last years peak after another tougher than average day. I think I have too much ground to make up now in the remaining days. But it’s still going to be a good week, just not as good as it could have been! You can’t win them all.
The difference between yesterday and the Tuesday was that I really struggled to get any traction in the markets. By traction I mean you need to …
Cheltenham day one
Well that was interesting to say the least. Half an hour before the first race of the day my internet connection suddenly goes down. Up till that point it was a carefully planned day, but with that, a chaotic period ensued. The internet going wasn’t a major problem as I have back up plans. I have a laptop with mobile broadband, just in case. But I also have back up locations I can switch to. The chaos was simply that …
Cheltenham
Well it’s here again, but what does it hold in store?
To be honest I have no idea and I try my best not to set any expectations ahead of an event, I just try do my best. It’s nice to have a few clues as to how you are going to trade something, but these big events come around so infrequently you only really know how it ‘s going to behave when you are actually in the thick of …
Broke it like Beckham
It was sad to see Beckham break down in that match last night. The good news for England fans is that it doesn’t seem to have affected the odds on England winning the world cup. Though at 7.00 these seem pretty short I think!
I really felt Beckham’s pain last night because I have suffered the same injury, I hope his doesn’t have the impact it had on me. I used to be very sporty and where ever I went …
The birth of a strategy
I’m always on the lookout for something new, preferably complimentary, to what I already do. But the path to a new strategies always starts with low expectations and its often a bumpy path. I think it’s probably the same for people starting out. In fact the first part, low expectations, is probably essential.
I recently headed off again down the path of blind alleys but on this occasion the blind alley turned out to be a new path and the …
Madness and wisdom
Are the racing markets becoming more or less volatile?
I can answer that with a definite YES. Yes they are becoming more and less volatile. Let me explain.
A few years ago I could pop an order in the market and wait for it to get filled. Now, if I go into a weaker than average race, like many this week, that doesn’t happen in the same manner anymore. If I get my staking wrong, the market takes one look …
Backhim?
2-3 is an interesting score line for Mr Beckham to bring to Old Trafford. I thought Beckham was anonymous in the first match. I am sure he will want to do better in this leg. Two away goals is a killer for AC Milan and therefore Man U are at very short prices to qualify. Milan need a clear two goal win to stand any chance so they must score.
The market is pricing in just short of three goals …
Return of the hulk
I like this stage of the champions league. Something has to happen for a team to go through.
Arsenal are priced to beat Porto but there are many permutations available which mean that both sides have a big incentive to score. The market has been pretty accurate as a reflection of that. It is pricing in just under three goals with nearly a goal advantage to Arsenal. Usually you would expect these to be tight contests, but an early goal …
Classic set up
A wonderful set up occurred in the FA Cup clash between Reading and Aston Villa this afternoon. Against the odds, Reading took a 2-0 lead againsts premiership outfit Villa. The teams went off for half time in distinctly different moods. A break in play is the perfect opportunity for teams to turn things around and that Villa did. Rejuvenated from their half time talk it wasn’t look before Villa were suddenly 3-2 in the lead. You could have backed them …
February
Spring is in the air and not a moment too soon! Those bleak winters months are almost behind us, the garden is starting to bud and the birds are munching through the feed faster than I can replace it. March brings us Cheltenham and that is always interesting, to say the least.
It’s difficult to accurately compare last month against previous years as I wasn’t really around much last February. But overall I was above my previous best Feb by …
When a negative is a postive
No this isn’t a maths questions, it’s about horses ! See a horse playing up and most people will lay it, feeling that it’s chances of winning the race are decling. That’s probably correct, as a horse that is not behaving itself before the start is unlikely to perform better during the race. That re-adjustment of opinion though is a huge opportunity for the astute trader. Look at the following graph from a race at Southwell last week. As they …
Mercedes unlikely to win first GP
Anybody who can remember my ‘We are not competitive’ tip for formula one last year may be interested in the following article coming out of the Mercedes camp at the moment. Full story here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/motorsport/formula_one/8539826.stm
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