Recent Articles
Saturday Soccer Stats
With six games remaining Barcelona have the advantage in the title race against Real Madrid. But it’s only a slender lead and while Espanyol have tended to be woeful at this time of year in recent seasons – in their final eight games since 2009/10 their record is W7-D11-L24 with a greater than 50% loss if you’d backed them in all those matches – you can guarantee they’ll be motivated for this clash.
Unfortunately …
Tennis Trading – Why a blanket strategy is usually unsuccessful
Frequently I get asked whether a given blanket Tennis trading strategy is a good idea, and almost always my answer is ‘it depends’. This probably frustrates the person posing the question, but it’s a genuine answer – it really does depend on the given situation, and the two players participating in the match.
The simple (and obvious) reason why this is the case is because not all players are created equally. Some players are good at serving, others’ strengths lie …
Touching distance
Updated my spreadsheets and stuff last week. When I looked, I realised I was finally within touching distance of a very long term goal. One that would have been inconceivable back when I started. I would have thought you mad if you set me this as a target! It’s been a long journey….
The start
Back in June 2000 I had a neat idea.
I’d use these new fangled exchanges to arb between bookmakers and the exchanges. It was slow …
Going to the wire
It’s a fascinating season in the Championship this year and it’s going to wire!
The championship is always ultra competitive, unlike the premier league most years, and this often throws up some interesting scenarios. The prize on offer, promotion to the premiership is such a large one, that clubs will spend or ‘fight like beavers’, to get a chance of the riches on offer.
This year we are only three games away from deciding which two lucky teams will get …
Court Speed in Tennis Trading
Recently on Twitter, there has been detailed conversation about court speed, and the impact that it has in Tennis.
As a trader, let me make one point abundantly clear here – I don’t care why the conditions at a venue is fast or slow, just that it will be, and that it is possible to ascertain this information in advance. Advance knowledge of conditions will enable me to work out the likelihood of players holding serve, and a fast hard …
Spring is definitely here
European clay court Tennis, Racing at Newmarket and shock of all shocks, some decent weather in the UK. Spring is definitely here!
So we are now on the cusp of a lot of major sporting action. This year wont be quite as busy as last year but it’s something to look forward too.
The Monte Carlo Masters Tennis is a signal to start dusting down things for the French Open. The clay court season in past years has been interesting …
Finding value in a football match
Not so long ago I tweeted the following: –
Tonight Bournemouth play Reading away but there is an interesting metric going on tonight. Reading are reasonably, though not entirely clear, of relegation in the Championship. But more importantly they are only 90 minutes away from an FA Cup final.
Bournemouth are in the position of being in complete control of their destiny at the top of the division. If they win every match remaining they will be in the premier …
Manchester Derby
The Manchester clubs come into the derby having experienced contrasting fortunes in recent weeks. Comparisons between Van Gaal’s side and David Moyes’ team at the same stage last season are now long gone and the Dutchman seems to have put his stamp on the side after a turbulent start to the season. Pellegrini, on the other hand, is looking anything but secure in his position as manager of City, who look destined …
Best of a bad job
Well that was an interesting day. I knew it was going to be a case of doing the best I could in tricky circumstances. Despite being tired it all worked out roughly in the end. But it didn’t feel like a successful day!
First up, the run-away leader in the US Masters made this a particularly tricky Masters this year around. I wanted a record result, I desperately wanted to break a four figure sum but it looks like that …
Losses refunded – BETDAQ trading promotion
In line with the release of the new version of BetDAQ Angel, view the video here, BETDAQ would love you to give it a decent test drive. Therefore they are offering you a rebate on losses on your account while you give it a good thrashing. There has never been a better time to give trading on BETDAQ a try, especially now you can automate it using the new version of Bet Angel for BETDAQ.
Download a copy of …
How to win every year on the Grand National
So the Grand National is upon us and that monumental task faces us again, picking a winner from 40 runners. Worse than that, all our friends will want a tip as well.
Picking the winner from this incomprehensible field is a bit of a nightmare. There are some common trends that are touted each year. Horses that haven’t won over three miles are generally not considered, as are horses with no experience of large fields. Positives are age, experience, proven …
Tennis trading – Assessing the first break of the match
Laying a player when a break up in the first set is a popular trading entry point, so I thought I’d go through some of the stats from the recent Miami Masters/Premier Mandatory tournament to get some concrete data for several variables for the player leading by the first break in the first set.
These variables were as follows:-
- ‘Train’ percentage – the percentage of the time that the player who took the first break in the set won the
Trading the US Masters Golf
I like the US Masters, mainly because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays. This gives me a good guide as to when to trade in and out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same location every year it is much more predictable.
If you are a golf player, when …
BETDAQangel now includes automation
While you have been busy filling your face with chocolate over Easter the team here have been busy road testing the latest version of Bet Angel for BETDAQ. It is now ready for release!
The latest upgrade is on top of the all the recent upgrades we made to the previous version of Bet Angel for BETDAQ, which you can view here: –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O7dihNSS2ng
This latest version now includes automation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONYUUeS9osA
Using automation you really have little excuse for not …
How to treat teams with nothing to play for
As we approach the business end of the season, with titles being decided, clubs scrambling to achieve European qualification and some fighting for their lives to avoid relegation, in each of Europe’s top leagues there will be a group of teams that don’t fit into any of the aforementioned categories. They are far enough clear of the relegation zone to not be concerned, while the European spots are out of their grasp in the number of games remaining and these …
Saturday Soccer Stats
Arsenal get the chance to all but confirm their top four finish with the lunchtime kick-off on Saturday as they host a Liverpool side that stand six points below them with just eight games remaining. Given their superior goal difference that is effectively a 6.5 point advantage and Liverpool simply have to win here if they are to claim a Champions League finish this term.
Liverpool will need to overturn a poor recent record
Houston open Golf – Best trades
I’m warming up for Augusta, so I’ve been having a dabble in Houston. Here are the best trades so far to £10 stakes.
Paul Casey is having a bit of form recently but of course he won’t be at the Masters. McIlroy has drifted a little but that’s normal.
Matt Kuchar – 18.5 to 13.5 : £3.70
J.B. Holmes – 30 to 8.4 : £25.71
Sergio Garcia – 28 to 15 : £8.67
Phil Mickelson – 30 to 13 : …
Creating a Tennis Trading strategy
I’ve had a lot of people ask me about creating a Tennis trading strategy recently, so I thought I’d post an updated version of old article from January 2014 which a lot of people have found useful in the past.
For this article, my plan was to detail how to create and use an effective ‘script’ to trade a tennis match, by means of laying player’s service games and laying the player a break up in a set.
It is …
The flat is back
While playing Football World Cup in the desert may not be a great ideal, running the world’s richest race is!
This weekend we have two key events in the racing calendar , the highest profile being the Dubai World Cup in Meydan. Here is another sports event I will make the effort to attend some day. For the moment, I’m still sat behind my monitor taking an active interest in it from the other side. The racecourse was designed to …
Assessing Over & Under Performing ATP Players
Having a strong interest in sports analytics, reading this article which focuses on the success of FC Midtjylland and Brentford FC – https://decorrespondent.nl/2607/How-data-not-humans-run-this-Danish-football-club/230219386155-d2948861- naturally piqued my interest. These two clubs – both owned by millionaire hedge fund manager and sports bettor Matthew Benham – use data analytics to assess performance in a number of areas, and one way that they use these analytics is to look for undervalued players in the transfer market.
When I read this article, my first …
Bet Angel now includes live Tennis scores
We are delighted to announce Bet Angel professional version 1.39 has been released. This is a major upgrade from version 1.38. Key new features: –
- Live tennis scores via Betfair.com now exposed via Bet Angel
- Bet or Trade automatically based on underlying scores in a match
- Improvements to the search feature
- Improvements to Tennis trader
The new version of Bet Angel is available for immediate download. You can download and install from: –
https://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro
If you are an existing Bet …
Sunday Soccer Stats
Is the Davis Cup better trading fodder?
Several weeks ago, Tennis traders were treated to a weekend of epic trading action in the Davis Cup, with five players coming back from two sets down to force a deciding set, including James Ward’s memorable victory over John Isner, which turned the whole tie in favour of Great Britain following Andy Murray’s facile defeat of Donald Young.
During, and following the weekend, there was some speculation regarding trading the Davis Cup and the general theme was towards the World …
WBX – World betting exchange – Closes
I doubt many people noticed but on Monday WBX shut it doors to new business. They haven’t gone bust so all outstanding bets will be settled and the operations will continue until all business has been sorted out but citing a number of issues they have decided that enough is enough. You can read the notice on their site: –
https://www.wbx.com/notice/scNotice.html
I noticed there is no chatter on any forums about it, I guess a few posts may appear after …
Could the General election change racing forever?
A fair few years ago I started visiting the houses of parliament.
I wasn’t looking to be an MP I just wanted to follow the passage of the new Gambling Bill through parliament and the committee stage. I learnt a lot about politics, lobbying, MP’s, party whips and the legislative process. The biggest thing I learnt was it was largely a pointless exercise. All the discussion, cross checking and diligence went out the window when the bill was guillotined thanks …
Cheltenham festival – On the other side of the fence
Sometimes, enjoying the sport you normally trade can be just as must fun! Dave gives us an insight to his experience of a day at Cheltenham…..
As many of you know, my health has been an issue for many years now. I wake up every morning and within 30 seconds I know if it is going to be a struggle or if I can be okay. I rarely get a good, or what many call a normal day, so I …
Sunday Soccer Stats
Chelsea come into this game on the back of a thoroughly disappointing result and performance against PSG in midweek, while Southampton’s schedule has been much easier without the rigours of European football or domestic cup ties. They beat Crystal Palace last weekend in what was a much needed win after defeats against West Brom and Liverpool. Chelsea will be looking to maintain their comfortable position at the top of the league, while Southampton will …
A quick summary of Cheltenham
Well it’s a relief that the first big week of the year is over, but also a bit of disappointment. Today was the misery I expected and the adjustment back to run of the mill action is underway. But big meetings don’t come around that often, so love them or hate them there are not that many.
The meeting had a lot of volume, but don’t confuse volume with liquidity they are two different things. I need to do a …
Has Manuel Pellegrini got Manchester City’s Tactics Right?
Cheltenham update
A quick update on how the week is going so far. Today, Thursday, is trading well so far.
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