Recent Articles
Profits and (losses)
Last week I got a few comments about P&L’s I’d posted up; this is quite common.
I was asked more than once, what stake did you use to achieve that? But there are so many ways to answer that question. You could have a hundred different answers depending on how you trade. If you don’t understand this answer, have a deep think about it.
A debate also broke out on the forum about posting winners and losers. My view on …
Racing makes history… and annoys families
So Racing has broken that taboo and Racing goes ahead on a Good Friday. Hmm, just got used to having the day off and so had the kids and suddenly I’m looking at trading instead of spending time with the family. No in fact, I’m not going to. I’ll switch on some automation and let it work (it’s magic?).
I understand Racing’s desire to be more appealing but this was one day, of few, of the year where I could …
Craving Craven
I prefer to know whether I’m in a good market or a poor one, but the Craven often sits in-between that. I know there’s quality there, but in terms of liquidity it often hasn’t delivered in the past and as a betting heat it doesn’t have the same importance as other nearby events. But it is better than the dross that’s often between Cheltenham and the Grand National though, it has to be said!
Winter is generally pretty tough and …
Title decider
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
No two ways about it this is the match that will most likely decide where the title will go. If City drop two points then it’s Liverpool’s to lose. If City win then Liverpool will find it very hard to make up ground. Should be a cracking match. I’m going to give …
Augusta, the cut
This has turned out to be a good Masters and a decent start to the season. I’m on target to get my best ever result on a Golf tournament.
Positive movers to the cut, to £10 stakes
Start to cut – Bubba Watson – 30 to 3 – £90 : High to cut – £256.67
Start to cut – Adam Scott – 13 to 6 – £11.67 : High to cut – £28.33
Start to cut – Jordan Spieth – …
Trading Golf markets on Betfair
If you want detailed Golf stats check out this site which I have been using to dissect Golf tournaments in more detail.
My first ever bet on Betfair back in June 2000 was actually on Golf, curiously. But back then it wasn’t a trading strategy that made me place that bet. Years later, Golf is now a regular part of my trading mix and the US Masters is my first chance of the year to really go for it.
I’ve …
Time to make a mess of the Garden – The US Masters
If you want more Golf stats check out this site which I have been using to dissect Golf tournaments in more detail.
We are at the first major of the year. I’m already active in the Masters market trying to establish a position before the first player tees off.
I like the US masters, because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays. …
Betfair re-launch in Italy (Sort of)
Betfair trumpeted the launch of the Italian exchange this morning. But they were the only ones celebrating as the markets in Italy resembled something of a ghost town and liquidity a piece of tumble weed blowing through it. A stark comparison to the betfair.com markets (see below).
Legislation permits that the exchange only be populated with Italian customers. So Betfair have closed all betfair.com accounts and moved them them to the ‘ringfenced’ Italian exchange. But I’d imagine most large …
Trading the Premier League title run-in
With West Ham vs Liverpool on the agenda this afternoon I thought I would have a close look at the premier leagues remaining matches and how they will affect the run in for the title. View the video to see how I’m looking to do this.
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Aston Villa v Fulham
- Aston Villa have just the 18th best home record this season – last term they had the 17th best
- Since 2008/09, 8 of the 9 meetings between these sides have had fewer than 3 goals
- Fulham have lost the 2nd half in 10 of their
Aintree Grand National meeting
I’ve prepared a couple of videos for you to do with the Grand National meeting, see below. To get videos as they are released click on this link.
This is a curious meeting for me each year. It’s not on the scale of some of the really large meetings, but is still a decent meeting in it’s own right. The problem I have here is that I never seem to pull off anything spectacular from it. On a race …
Paris St-G vs Mourinho
Some clever mind games going on this week by the Chelsea manager in preparation for this match. From a market perspective it’s basically two evenly matched teams with Paris having home advantage. My guess is that Chelsea will be keen to keen the goal tally against as low as possible so I suspect a defensive approach given their ‘lack of a striker’.
The stats reflect what I’ve said above, so a difficult call really.
Paris St-G vs. Chelsea
We looked …
Mission impossible for Man Utd?
An intriguing tie at Old Trafford and one that Man Utd can’t afford to lose. You would expect that United must win by two to stand any chance of qualifying with the return leg still to come. ‘Dir Roten’ will be well aware of that and I suspect they will be happy to sit back and wait for Utd to make a mistake at first. An away goal would make it incredibly hard for United to qualify so I reckon …
The risk meter – A hidden gem
Bet Angel contains a near little feature hidden away in the market overview screen, it’s called the risk meter.
If you trade on horse racing then this handy little tool will allow you to measure what a market feels like. This means you can adapt your trading style according to this measure. Some markets suit certain styles and others don’t. So using the risk meter will give you a better assessment on how the market feels and what to do …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
- Palace have picked up just 1 point from 14 games against the top 9 this season and they’ve scored just 2 goals in the process
- 9 of Palace’s last 11 home matches have had fewer than 3 goals
- 7 of Chelsea’s last 9 wins have been by at
The flat is back
Looking forward to the return of the flat turf season this weekend with the Lincoln at Doncaster.
We should rejoice at the return of the flat turf season. It’s return will herald less clashing and generally bigger fields. In the winter it can be a right pain when you have many cards and all the races and are falling all over each other. This will mean you should see better opportunities and more, just around the corner. I’ve produced a …
Using traded volume to trade on Bet Angel
In this video I describe how to use the two traded (matched bet) volume indicators on Bet Angel. A simple but effective way of understanding where the short term volatility is driving market prices.
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Cardiff City v Liverpool
- Since 2010/11 Liverpool have lost 7 of their 10 trips to promoted teams while 8 have had at least 3 goals
- 13 of Liverpool’s last 16 away matches have had at least 3 goals, with 10 having 4 or more
- Liverpool have scored before half-time in an incredible
Questions appear over Betfair Australia
Discussions are ongoing on the Bet Angel forum around speculation that Betfair may exit Australia: –
https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=9077
It would be a real blow to Betfair IMHO if they did consider exiting this territory. At their IPO it seemed like they were ready to take on the world and I distinctly remember part of the pitch being that being a listed company would give them more credibility in new territories. But instead, France, Germany, Spain, Greece, Italy etc. etc. etc. etc. …
Man Utd vs. Olympiakos
Do or die for Man Utd and to a certain extent David Moyes tonight. Looking forward to the match.
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 70 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 65.4% chance of a Man Utd win, a 13.9% chance of a Olympiakos win and a 21.3% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 65.7% chance of a …
Chelsea vs. Galatasaaraearaery
Chelsea vs. Galatasaray
Really looking forward to the match this evening!
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 121 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 70.9% chance of a Chelsea win, a 10.2% chance of a Galatasaray win and a 19.6% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 80.2% chance of a home win, a 8.3% chance of a away win …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Hull v Man City
- Hull have lost 4 of 6 home matches this season against the current top nine
- Hull have been level at half-time in 7 of their last 9 home matches
- Man City have won 4 of their last 5 away matches whilst scoring 14 times
- 10 of Man City’s
Cheltenham Day 3 & 4
We’ve teamed up with our friends at Proform to bring you one of their race cards at Cheltenham, for FREE! Download today’s racecard by clicking on this text.
Cheltenham day three
A decent day where I managed to pull out a number of good results across both exchanges. It was much more like Tuesday and completely different to Wednesday that threw a few curve balls! So looking forward to tomorrow and the Gold Cup!
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Cheltenham day two
We’ve teamed up with our friends at Proform to bring you one of their race cards at Cheltenham, for FREE! Download today’s racecard by clicking on this text.
Cheltenham day two summary
A really interesting day and one that produced many surprises in complete contrast to day one. It would have been nice to have two similar days so that we can take some of that forward to day three. As it is we have it all to look …
Excellent start to Cheltenham
We’ve teamed up with our friends at Proform to bring you one of their race cards at Cheltenham, for FREE! Download today’s racecard by clicking on this text.
Cheltenham day one summary
Well that went well.
Tuesday’s are always a day for experimenting and testing the market so I don’t usually get really stuck in, but I realised quickly today that the markets were behaving themselves so I got stuck in. I tried a number of strategies and they …
Free Proform Cheltenham racecard
We’ve teamed up with our friends at Proform to bring you one of their race cards at Cheltenham, for FREE!
If you haven’t checked out Proform yet, it’s one of the most capable pieces of software for looking at racing form. It’s contains a number of interesting features which you can check out by visiting their site. I first came across it when trying to find the reason for anomalies I saw in certain race types I was trading. …
What you can do with a £10 stake?
I’ve done this experiment a few times on the blog where I use a £10 stake and do something with it. Last week, with Cheltenham looming upon us, it’s well know that the Cheltenham markets will be well and truly stuffed up with money. That can be tough and it’s likely you will need more money to make some this week. So I thought it would be a nice reflection to trade with small amounts again as a demonstration and …
Sunday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Serie A: Napoli v Roma (Sun, 19:45)
Napoli have slipped six points behind Roma following a run of just two wins in their last seven games. In the same time Roma have conceded just once and won five times. However, Roma’s form on the road is less impressive as they’ve scored just …
Seasonality in Horse Racing
Winter racing markets can be a struggle and traditionally produce less opportunity than at other times of the year. This video discusses this.
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