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Key points from Betfair results
Top line numbers
- Revenue up 5%. Underlying earnings growth is difficult to asses because of previous adjustments, so I wont attempt to interpret that.
- Underlying exchange revenue was +1%, but bear in mind there have been a range of price rises so this hints at declining underlying business. The sportsbook has gained £2m in revenue over the past year, the exchange £400k and Betfair US is up £2m, still quite small in the scheme of things but growing much faster.
Bank Building
So, not long till Cheltenham.
I don’t have a specific target for Cheltenham, I just want to line up everything as best as possible. I’ll review previous years data, check my understanding of the markets and make sure I am as ready as I can be.
One of those aspects is building up a bank big enough to use at Cheltenham. If the markets are suitable I’ll really go for it and you need a stack of cash to do …
Has Paddy Power overstepped the mark?
There is a storm a brewing tonight.
They say all publicity is good publicity, but there must be an invisible line that is crossed at some point. Judging by the feedback to their latest promotion Paddy Power appear to be at least on that line.
With the world, in part at least, turning its eyes to South Africa for the trial of Oscar Pistorious, Paddy Power thought they would put a market up for it; click here if you wish…
A bit of a special spreadsheet
Many thanks to Switesh for creating, uploading and detailing this spreadsheet and then allow us to publish it.
There is a lot you can do with Bet Angel and with the Excel spreadsheet integration the sky is the limit. You can use the spreadsheet in the background while you do other things with Bet Angel as well. You can trade on the main interface and also use the automation if you wish, all at the same time. Don’t forget you …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Fulham v Chelsea:
- Fulham have lost their last six home games against top-six team including 4 defeats without scoring
- 6 of Chelsea’s last 8 wins have come to nil, including 3 1-0 scores
- This fixture has had just 25 goals in the last 12 seasons with 8 of 12 matches having
How you really make (trading) decision
If you haven’t seen this episode of Horizon it is worth a watch: –
It is titled, ‘How you really make decisions’
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03wyr3c/Horizon_20132014_How_You_Really_Make_Decisions/
I’ve used some of the examples in this episode in my courses from time to time.
I became interested in sub-optimal behaviour when I started working out how to win the football pools. I figured that while there was an inbuilt edge against me in he market, most people wouldn’t use optimal behaviour to place their bets …
Galatasaray 2-0 Chelsea?
Wouldn’t it be ironic if this was the scoreline this evening after all other English teams lost by the same amount. Or are Chelsea a dark horse? Looking forward to seeing the legend that is Drobga this evening. Who can forget his last campaign for Chelsea?
Here are match results from matches that have had very similar set ups in the past: –
Draw – 2007 – Newcastle vs Arsenal – Result – 0-0
Draw – 2008 – Tottenham vs …
Similar matches
When looking at matches like this evening’s champions league, I’ll often look at matches that had similar characteristics in the past. You would have seen me post up information on previous posts. For example, in the Man Utd match this evening my stats threw up the following: –
The market is forecasting 2.39 goals. Historically there have been 2.18 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38. Historically 33.3% …
Sprinter Sacre misses Cheltenham
Cheltenham not far away and the big news is that Sprinter Sacre will not be there.
Nightmare for Antepost backers but a dream for layers as it traded as low as 1.37 on Betfair.
I note that Henderson is just saying that Sprinter Sacre is ‘missing 10%’ so not injured, just feeling the timing isn’t right for the horse. This brings back memories of Kicking King which traded at 1000 on Betfair before going on to win the Gold Cup …
Saturday Soccer stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Chelsea v Everton:
- Everton have scored in each of their last 9 matches against Chelsea
- Chelsea have recorded 7 2-1 wins in their last 21 home matches including 4 in their last 7 hosting top-half teams
- Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 matches
West Brom v …
Another way to trade a football match
In a recent blog post I talked about how team news can affect the price of matches before the off. Here is the link: –
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2014/01/08/trading-team-news-football-matches/
But today generated a different sort of opportunity due to the unfortunate events in the Urkraine.
Due to uncertainty about the security issues of playing the Ukraine, Dynamo Kiev vs Valencia was moved from Ukraine to Cyprus. No such fears appear to be blighting the Spurs match.
If you are at home the …
Champions League – City vs Barca – Curious
Ahhh, after the disappointment of the FA Cup at the weekend we transition into something altogether different.
I like the knock out phases of this competition as it brings a real incentive to score (or not). So that adds to the dynamics of the matches. The volume bumps up as well so that means you can get stuck into the markets. The big matches out there now should engage your interest because they will be good practice for the World …
FA Cup trading so far..
A quick review of how the FA Cup has traded so far this year. Pretty much the same as prior years TBH.
In the third round Premier league teams were 96.84% of the market. Today that stands at 99.15%, I think the winner could perhaps come from the premier league this year! If you look at the movers from the third round you see a slightly clearer picture, but obviously a lot of that is down to the draw: –…
It’s always darkest before dawn
In the UK we have had a tough winter. Storm after storm, rain, flooding, unprecedented weather not witnessed for 250 years. But it will end and this is where the title on this blog post comes from.
We all know that day follows night and vice versa, but in a period of time relative to yourself, sometimes it seems there will be no end. But I can assure you that everything in life works in cycles.
Remember 2013? Only last …
Liverpool vs Arsenal
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Liverpool v Arsenal (Sat, 12:45)
Arsenal, in recent seasons, have been characterised by their awful record against the league’s other top teams. In the four seasons prior to this they lost 12 and won only two of 20 away matches against other top-six finishers, while their equivalent home record of …
Strange places to trade from..
Over the many years I’ve been trading, I generally never pass up a clear opportunity to do a decent trade or trading session. This has led me to trade from all manner of places.
Just before I left my final job in the corporate world many years ago I’d often trade in the toilet. Bit odd you may think, but as I got more and more into trading I started to take bigger and bigger positions and they need careful …
Betfair reduce in-play delay on football
Received an email from Betfair today that details a plan to reduce inplay delays.
Currently they put a bet placement delay in of 8 seconds when placing a bet in play on football / soccer. They are looking to reduce the delay to 5 seconds in matches this weekend. They also plan to reduce the half time bet placement delay to one second.
See the forum for more details
Man City vs Chelsea
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Man City v Chelsea (Mon, 20:00)
Man City turned on the style at White Hart Lane to move to the top of the table and it’s clear that Chelsea are second favourites with the bookies, but a defeat here will leave them six points adrift with a vastly inferior goal …
Testing times
It is with interest that I am watching preparations for the new Formula 1 season.
The various teams have been testing this week in Jerez and it’s proved to be a mixed bunch of results so far, but hey, that’s what testing is all about.
But the uncertainty during testing and all the rule changes that have occurred this season could throw up some unexpected results as we head through the season. So I’m really interested in taking a deeper …
Pre Match football trading
In the absence of racing today I’ll be dipping into Kempton to have a look this evening, though I doubt I’ll trade it, and I’ll also be welcoming the premier league football into my arms.
Football was one of the first markets I actively traded on Betfair and I still do it today. Trading before the match starts allows me to get off to a head start on things and, if necessary, carry over the profit to play around with …
Merseyside Derby
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Liverpool v Everton (Tue, 20:00)
The first Merseyside derby of the season was a 3-3 thriller and with both teams still occupying positions in the top six and separated by just one point this is one of the biggest meetings between these teams in years.
Liverpool have won 10 of …
Tales of the unexpected
With the Australian open over we can reminisce on what happened. The most obvious thing was that the first grand slam of the year had two unexpected winners. I’m not expecting that to repeat through the season. Djokovic, Nadal and Murray are at the top of their careers at the moments and that has to be a theme through the year.
I’ve learnt to look at the Aussie Open for clues of break through players. I think we saw a …
Federer vs Nadal
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer will continue their great rivalry tomorrow when they meet for the 11th time on a Grand Slam stage.
It should be an interesting match, but I thought the quarter between Murray and Federer would be as well, but that didn’t turn out to be so blockbusting. I’ve had a quiet Aussie open. Some decent results but less active than last year while I’ve been working on some key projects. The early mornings were too much …
Another classic betting coup
Barney Curley may have retired but his presence was felt yet again as four heavily gambled horses romped home in style for a big accumulator today. This brought back memories of May 2010.
Eye of the Tiger came in at 13:30 at Lingfield, Seven Summits at the 13:40 at Catterick then Indus Valley and Low Key in the evening at Kempton.
The link? All the horses involved were previously associated with Barney Curley. Winning trainer John Butler, a former …
Top benefits of using a VPS to trade
[Forward by Peter]
I first used a VPS back in 2004. I had to travel abroad and I wasn’t sure what the internet connection was like, or if using Betfair from abroad would even be viable. So I took the plunge and started using a VPS. The idea, get a fast and reliable connection to Bet Angel and Betfair where ever I am. I’ve been using one ever since! But what is a VPS and would it be useful to …
The £16m football accumlator
After a busy week I’ve been catching up on email and reading through some reports and stuff. I’m a little late but spotted this and thought I’d share it.
“Online Sportsbook has continued to show strong wagering growth, up 48% in the first two weeks of 2014. However, football results in week 2 were highly unfavourable with an unusually high number of odds-on favourites winning. Driven by the impact of this on our otherwise very attractive accumulator business, we recorded …
Sunday football previews
Chelsea v Man Utd (Sun, 16:00)
The first meeting between these teams this season was a drab nil-nil affair that is probably best forgotten. With Arsenal and Man City both hosting bottom-six teams this weekend Chelsea will need to win to stay within three points of the lead, while United know they cant afford to drop too many more points. So hopefully the significance of the game creates a bit more excitement.
Chelsea are in decent form having won their …
Betfair link Sportsbook to the exchange
In a positive move for exchange liquidity Betfair have finally linked up the Sportsbook front end to the exchange mechanism.
In only appears to be on Football markets at the moment but no doubt more markets will follow. As it now stands anybody placing a bet on the Sportsbook will automatically see their bet ‘referred’ to the exchange. If the exchange price (less 5% commission) is better than the sports book price, then the bet is placed via the exchange …
Courtsider scandal at Australian open hits the headlines
Australian authorities took a big step to send courtsiders packing last night with a aggressive move to enforce gambling laws. Australian legislators take a dim view of in-play betting as they feel it will damage the integrity of sport and it’s banned in Australia. This moves indicates they are actively seeking out courtsiders during games.
News broke as follows: –
“Last night a 22 year old man was arrested and charged with offences under Victoria’s new crimes integrity in sports …
The best from the worst
Looked at the football last night to see if there was anything worth trading, but there was little on. I tend not to mess around in cup matches as they are less predictable than normal matches and subject to some funny activity now and again. Last night’s match between Fulham and Sheffield Utd looked really uninspiring fodder.
And so it proved as Fulham and Sheffield Utd slogged out a drab 0-0 draw. I was glad I missed it to be …