Recent Articles
Simple Tennis Automation
With the Australian tennis open about to start, I thought I would look at automating some tennis markets and see what can be done.
The Australian Open is mens tournament a is played over five sets, there is no tie breaker in the final set either. Out of the grand slams, only the US Open has a tie breaker in the final set. Without a tie break matches can, in theory, go on indefinitely. Although the longest ever grand slam …
Australian Open Tennis is here
The start of the year is a great time to get some Tennis trading experience under your belt. If you want a quick browse of previous advice dispensed on Tennis, click here to search the blog for Tennis articles.
The Australian Open is the first grand slam tournament of the year and usually presents some good opportunities. In 2012 we were treated to a legendary final which I documented on the blog. The final turned over £46.2m in matched …
Arsenal shouldn’t worry over Walcott
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Theo Walcott, Forward, Arsenal
Theo Walcott’s cheery mood following Arsenal’s FA Cup victory over Tottenham was quashed when scan results on his knee injury ruled him out for the rest of the season and this year’s World Cup. England will surely suffer from his absence but Arsenal have coped well without him …
Trading team news on football matches
I’m looking at the Man City and West Ham match this evening. I see City are 1/5 on for the win! The big question I am asking myself at this moment in time is, what teams will walk onto the pitch this evening?
I trade a lot of football before the match starts. Why? Well if I do anything in-play then trading before the off gives me some leeway to what I want to do with a strategy in-play. …
A question of scale (part four)
I have finally completed my quartet of posts called ‘question of scale’.
Parts one, two and three have been looking at the question of scale in the exchange markets. Four looks at what this effectively means for me and it starts with a simple question.
OK, I’m going to give you £500,000 to invest. Where will you invest it and what return will you get?
Let’s put that in a savings account. Hmm, only 1-2% interest means we will …
Picking an FA Cup shock
Ah, the romance of the FA Cup!
The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is a little thin on the ground.
Last year of course Wigan ensured the demise of Mancini’s tenure at Man City by winning the Cup. In 2012, for the first time since 1994, a minor team made the fifth round. In the prior year a league two team …
My Sports trading journey – Part five
A new year seems a good place to try and round off my story of how I got trading and my journey through the markets.
Click on the links to catch up with parts one, two, three and four
The jump
So I had taken the great leap into the unknown. For years I’d worked diligently up the corporate ladder and could have stayed in a senior position, but had now stepped off. At the back of my …
£17k
After I posted up my summary of 2013, I realised there was another statistic I could have added to the mix. Commission paid. I used a number of strategies last year. Including some experimental ones and that meant that the most I paid over a four week total in commission last year was a staggering £17,697.
To clarify that’s commission generated, not profit. Eye watering stuff. I hadn’t realised just how much until I ran over the stats! Just wanted …
Happy New year – Mission impossible 2!
Bit of an exaggeration, but not far from it!
New years day brings a smorgasbord of activity on the sports markets and it’s a tough day. Not least because most people will be hungover, but there is also so much sport going on, it can be a demanding day.
It’s better than boxing day though as it’s a bit better aligned. Cheltenham has often produced decent results for me on the first day of the new year. Lots of footy …
A year in the life
You may recall my blog posts a day, a week and a month. So what better way to sign off 2013 than a year in the life.
The year
I tend to follow a predictable pattern each year, skipping between major events where liquidity is highest. I used to do everything a few years ago but as my percentage return on invested capital shrinks, I am much more picking nowadays.
So I can tell you at the start …
Consistency
So the festive trading period is over and we now return to more mundane matters on the racing front.
Nothing outstanding occurred for me on the trading front, but Sprinter Sacre pulling up at an SP of 1.20 was probably the high or lowlight of the period depending on which side of the book you were on. You could hear the howls of anguish like never before coming from the crowd. Another reason why trading is much better than traditional …
Automating your football trading
Bet Angel contains a very powerful automation tools. In this article we look at how this can help automate a simple strategy on football.
Automation is as simple or complex as you wish. To help you we plan to create a library of simple automation files that you can download and build upon.
For this automation strategy we will look at backing or laying the draw. We want to automatically place a bet just before kick-off then exit the trade …
Variability of football, the tipsters nightmare
Here is a very easy puzzle for you to solve. Your friend asks you to forecast the result of a football match.
The scenario is quite simple: –
Team A Form
Hasn’t lost at home this year and is unbeaten run to 10 games. They have only conceded 16 goals in 17 games. They have lost just two of their last 36 home games (W24 D10 L2) and are 4th in the league.
Team B Form
Has no wins in …
Mission not impossible
So, after a tough day yesterday we look forward to an easier task today. Some reasonable quality about and of course we have Sprinter Sacre on the card.There are also a sensible amount of races. Saturday looks promising on the racing front.
With hindsight, always a wonderful thing, yesterday didn’t go too badly for me. So as a matter of record I should blog that for a better reflection next year. But I think one thing that did trick for …
Mission impossible
One look at the racing card this morning and the music from mission impossible should have started running through your head.
Even with two meetings abandoned there are still a total of 11 meetings in the UK and Ireland today and a total of 720 runners over 72 races.
The problem you have on days like this is that the races fall all over each other and before one has finished another has already started. They are also generally lower …
Some rest for the wicked
So we are almost at Christmas and the sports schedule is thinning out into the run up to Christmas day. No racing today and it’s the same until boxing day. It’s lined up quite nicely this year to give me the opportunity to actually have a decent rest and do nothing! Well I’ll try at least, certainly there isn’t much to be done on the trading front.
So it will be a time of reflection and looking forward. With that …
Sunday match previews
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
[Peter] I’ll be at St Marys watching Southampton vs Spurs so can’t comment on that match!
Swansea v Everton (Sun 16:00)
Swansea are unbeaten in five home games but Everton have been beaten just once all season – and everyone loses at the Etihad these days. Roberto Martinez has got the Toffees …
Player absence and team performance in football
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean. N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
[Peter – Based upon my research over many …
Sometimes you win, sometimes you……
LEARN!!!!
I came across this phrase this year and I think it’s a neat one. It encapsulates the mental process you need to go through to be successful in pretty much anything in life.
What is talent?
It’s nice to think we are talented or some how ‘special’ but in fact a lot of talent comes through good old fashioned hard work. We have discussed it often in the psychology section of the forum. Generally there are no short cuts, …
Betfair ‘ask the MD session’
In case you were not aware Betfair are holding a ‘Ask the MD’ session this week. It’s a great opportunity to ask Betfair’s senior management about any burning issues you have.
There is often a lot of debate on various forums and social media about Betfair’s strategy and what they are doing and why so this event this week presents you with the opportunity to ask those questions directly to Betfair and to carefully digest the resulting explanations. Too good …
Sunday match previews
These statistics are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
In the first fixture, I will forever remember the cat trick at Anfield which livened up a rather dull 0-0 draw in the reverse fixture that year.
Spurs v Liverpool (Sun 16:00)
While Liverpool have certainly been the more eye-catching of these two teams this season there is just three points between …
Man City vs Arsenal stats.
I’m looking forward to this clash as it will be a decent test of both teams and will hopefully lay down a market for the remainder of the season. These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments. Also check out Betdaq where the early kick off matches are commission free! BetdaqAngel is fully feature free trading software for Betdaq.
Man …
Europa league goal ratings
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Red Bull Salzburg vs. Esbjerg – 124%
Tottenham vs. Anzhi Makhachkala – 124%
Dinamo Kiev vs. Rapid Vienna – 116%
Valencia vs. Kuban Krasnodar – 110%
Standard vs. Elfsborg – 110%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. APOEL – 110%
Thun vs. Genk – 108%
PAOK vs. Az Alkmaar – 108%
Betis vs. Rijeka – 108%
Lazio vs. Trabzonspor – 106%
Freiburg vs. Sevilla …
Champions league goal ratings – Wednesday
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Barcelona vs. Celtic – 138%
Chelsea vs. Steaua Bucharest – 128%
Marseille vs. Dortmund – 124%
Napoli vs. Arsenal – 118%
Schalke vs. FC Basel – 118%
Austria Vienna vs. Zenit St Petersburg – 112%
AC Milan vs. Ajax – 110%
Atl Madrid vs. Porto – 102%
I have priced in 25 goals this evening.
If you are interested in how …
Champions league ratings
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
B Munich vs. Man City – 130%
FC Copenhagen vs. Real Madrid – 128%
Sociedad vs. Leverkusen – 118%
Olympiakos vs. Anderlecht – 116%
Galatasaray vs. Juventus – 112%
Man Utd vs. Shakhtar – 110%
Benfica vs. Paris St-G – 108%
Plzen vs. CSKA Moscow – 106%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Sunday match previews
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Please check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Sunday Match Previews
Fulham v Aston Villa (Sun 13:30)
Fulham maintained their record of scoring in every home game this season on Wednesday. Unfortunately, two late goals consigned them to a ninth defeat in 11 home games. At the same time, Aston Villa were winning at Southampton despite having just 23% of the …
Weekend player analysis
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Please check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Player analysis
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
West Brom v Norwich
Anthony Pilkington, Midfielder, Norwich
Anthony Pilkington …
How did the world cup draw affect your teams chance?
Money talks and as the World Cup draw was made, the market moved as people discounted a favorable or unfavorable draws. But for whom and how much?
The big winners were Argentina as the market shifted nearly 4% in their favour. Was England’s draw so bad? They slipped from 28 to 30 in decimal odds, only an decline of 0.25% in implied probability terms. They had little change, they have slightly less. Spain suffered the most as their chance of …
The Bitcoin trading phenomenon
One thing you will notice about the Bet Angel forum is that not only do we talk a lot about sports trading and sports markets, but we also talk a lot about general trading and other trading markets.
As you may know I am active in both and push equally hard in all directions to learn more about all markets. I bought my first shares in the heady privatisation days in the mid to late eighties and pursued a well …
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