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One of my favourite races of the year

One of my favourite races of the year

The Hennessy Gold Cup was run at Newbury yesterday and I have fond memories of this race as this is the race I traded live at the IX Investor show for Betfair in 2006.

Seeing a betting company at an financial investment show was a shock for many people and lots couldn’t understand why we were there, so we had real trouble getting people to come near the stand.

This was when I rolled up my sleeves and traded live …

01/12/2013 | By | Reply More
Do teams perform better or worse after European games?

Do teams perform better or worse after European games?

Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs.

European hangovers?

At the start of last season we analysed the impact of European games on teams’ following domestic matches. What we found was that backing teams playing at home after an away trip in Europe was a potentially profitable strategy.

When removing games where teams faced a knock-out game in Europe for their next match (i.e. their domestic match was sandwiched between two European knockout matches) …

30/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Conversation with a Journalist

Conversation with a Journalist

Had breakfast with a journalist last week in London.

Here is the background to why we met up when I was in town. Over the years I’ve seen so many stories about people who lost a lot, I mean a real lot, gambling. Some lost through there own fault, but sometimes it was for completely nefarious means, by gambling with other people’s money. I wondered why the media doesn’t publish the opposing story, somebody that actually made something.

So I

29/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Europa league goal ratings

Europa league goal ratings

I like the Europa league, lots of matches split into two groupings. Though the liquidity can be a little light on certain matches. I like the range of matches though that are variable and often give you a chance to average out a strategy.

Tonight I’ll be keeping an eye on Spurs to see how they perform after there thrashing at the weekend. You would be surprised what clues you can pick up from watching how teams interact, perform and …

28/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Champions league goal ratings

Champions league goal ratings

Goals ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –

Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray – 136%
Man City vs. Plzen – 132%
Juventus vs. FC Copenhagen – 128%
Paris St-G vs. Olympiakos – 114%
CSKA Moscow vs. B Munich – 114%
Shakhtar vs. Sociedad – 110%
Leverkusen vs. Man Utd – 102%
Anderlecht vs. Benfica – 98%

I have priced in 24 goals this evening.

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27/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Champions league goal ratings

Champions league goal ratings

Goal ratings for this evening, projected variance to long term average: –

Porto vs. Austria Vienna – 125%
Dortmund vs. Napoli – 123%
Arsenal vs. Marseille – 122%
Ajax vs. Barcelona – 115%
Steaua Bucharest vs. Schalke – 104%
FC Basel vs. Chelsea – 101%
Zenit St Petersburg vs. Atl Madrid – 100%
Celtic vs. AC Milan – 95%

I’ve priced in 23 goals.

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26/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Another graph

Another graph

I’m presenting another course today; if you are interested, I’ll be doing one more course on 9th December before I change the format in the new year. We still have a few places left on that one.

Amongst many things I’ll discuss and explain, I’ll be talking about this graph today. It’s curious how different strategies can throw out similar graphs. If you have seen some recent graphs I posted up you will spot the similarity, but the strategy …

25/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Racing post security breach

Racing post security breach

Just so I can send the message out to all channels as quickly as possible. It looks like Racing Post has suffered a security breach and people with accounts there may have had their details compromised. Racing post appear to be putting a message on their site this morning but it’s returning a 404 error at the moment. However I have had a couple of people send me this email. We are running a thread on the forum for people …

24/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Market watching – Day of the drifter

Market watching – Day of the drifter

I’m an avid market watcher. Every day for years I’ve collected data on what I’ve been doing and what the market is doing, where the odds are going, what’s happening etc. This allows me to ‘look under the bonnet’ of the market and understand what is going on. On occasion it throws up some real anomalies. On Monday we experienced some of that.

Monday was the ‘day of the drifter’. If you would have laid the favourite, the majority of …

21/11/2013 | By | Reply More
What England need to do….

What England need to do….

First off, while the England vs. Germany match will be must watch viewing for both countries this evening, personally I think the Sweden vs. Portugal match will be a cracker and is set up nicely for some drama and great potential trading opportunities. Ibrahimovic or Ronaldo won’t be going to Rio, who will it be?

Meantime back at Wembley England have a chance to show they are ready for Rio.

I don’t think you can read too much into the …

19/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Santa delivers early xmas present

Santa delivers early xmas present

No I haven’t finally got a Christmas card from Betfair, just a catch up on events at Santa Anita a couple of weeks ago.

I’ve had an on off relationship with the breeders cup over the years but this year turned out to be quite good in the scheme of things. It was marked by good and bad races but the good ones produced something and the bad ones didn’t really lose much. So I’d rank 2013 as one of …

16/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Why friendlies can be a trading minefield

Why friendlies can be a trading minefield

I wont be actively trading the international friendlies this evening. There are many things I can predict about how a football match will pan out, but doing this on friendlies is much harder and a bit more random. Basically I don’t know if I have an edge.

Friendlies, especially like those tonight, are for managers to try a few things out. Shove some fresh talent onto the pitch and see how they perform. Change shape, try a few tactics and …

15/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Using Bet Angel on the Ladbrokes exchange

Using Bet Angel on the Ladbrokes exchange

With the launch of the new Ladbrokes exchange, we’ve had lots of people asking if we are going to produce Bet Angel for Ladbrokes?

But, in fact, we have already and it’s free. Basically BETDAQ Angel is already compatible with Ladbrokes because the Ladbrokes exchange is based on the Betdaq exchange model. All bets on the Ladbrokes exchange feed into Betdaq and vice versa.

So you can see how, we thought we would show you what happens on the Ladbrokes …

10/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Europa league ratings – 20:05 kick offs

Europa league ratings – 20:05 kick offs

I’ve priced in 33 goals in this batch of matches. Ranked from most goals to least, expected variation to long term average.

Tottenham vs. Sheriff Tiraspol – 138%
Az Alkmaar vs. Shakhter Karagandy – 123%
Sevilla vs. Slovan Liberec – 118%
Lazio vs. Apollon L. – 112%
Rapid Vienna vs. Genk – 106%
Estoril vs. Freiburg – 105%
Thun vs. Dinamo Kiev – 101%
Legia Warsaw vs. Trabzonspor – 97%
Maccabi Haifa vs. PAOK – 97%
Rijeka vs. Lyon – …

07/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Champions league ratings for Wednesday

Champions league ratings for Wednesday

Excluding the early kick off.

Barcelona vs. AC Milan – 131%
Atl Madrid vs. Austria Vienna – 130%
Dortmund vs. Arsenal – 125%
Chelsea vs. Schalke – 110%
Napoli vs. Marseille – 109%
FC Basel vs. Steaua Bucharest – 108%
Ajax vs. Celtic – 103%

I’ve priced in 21 goals this evening.

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06/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Champions league ratings for Tuesday

Champions league ratings for Tuesday

Expected variation to average of goals scored. Most goals to least.

Plzen vs. B Munich – 137%
Paris St-G vs. Anderlecht – 129%
Man City vs. CSKA Moscow – 128%
Juventus vs. Real Madrid – 118%
Shakhtar vs. Leverkusen – 114%
FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray – 107%
Sociedad vs. Man Utd – 102%
Olympiakos vs. Benfica – 93%

I’m penciling in around 24 goals this evening.

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05/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Melbourne cup

Melbourne cup

Me and the Melbourne cup go back a few years now. Many moons ago I got interested in the ‘race that stops a nation’ and learned that it really did stop the nation, they have a national holiday today.

So, intrigued, I got up at 4am one dark winter Tuesday to see what all the fuss was about. Nothing really happened apart from a lack of sleep and I returned to bed disappointed. Back then I had converted have the …

04/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Derby Day

Derby Day

Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no….

If you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time)  is Derby Day in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup. It’s a busy period full stop on the horse racing front, as we also have the Breeders Cup in Santa Anita.

Typically the Friday on Breeders Cup day is …

02/11/2013 | By | Reply More
Stop losses and the illusion of safety

Stop losses and the illusion of safety

Drachten is a small town in Holland, but what’s got to do with stop losses & risk?

Well, a few years ago almost all traffic lights and signs were removed from the town’s centre in an effort to improve traffic safety. This was based on the theory that drivers pay more attention to their surroundings when they cannot rely on strict traffic rules. What happened was that accidents fell because people actually paid attention to actual risk, rather than relying …

29/10/2013 | By More
The Bet Angel Active Desktop – The biggest thing you may have missed so far.

The Bet Angel Active Desktop – The biggest thing you may have missed so far.

For those who have upgraded to 1.35.x you may have noticed something different about the way the desktop looks when you log in.

Click on image to zoom

The desktop was an area that has looked the same for many years now and it needed refreshing. Gone is the old jumble of messages that you may have not read for a while.

In its place is a new active desktop that not only integrates the social aspect of Bet Angel …

27/10/2013 | By | Reply More
Ladbrokes WILL feed bets to Betdaq to boost liquidity

Ladbrokes WILL feed bets to Betdaq to boost liquidity

Discussion on the Ladbrokes exchange is the hot topic at the moment. How will it look, how will it work etc. etc?

Today we received official confirmation that Ladbrokes on-line clients, who are being teased with a ‘coming soon’ tab on their home page, will feed liquidity directly into BETDAQ. Visiting BETDAQ’s home page today saw them send a clear message on the benefits of the Ladbrokes integration to all users. I’ve reproduced the graphic for you on the blog.…

23/10/2013 | By | Reply More
Champions league goal ratings

Champions league goal ratings

Champions league ratings for this evening, forecast variation to long term average. Basically are we expecting more or less goals than average. Looks like a nice for overs, I’ve shared out 22 goals this evening.

Most to least goals: –

  • Arsenal Vs. Dortmund – 118%
  • Austria Vienna Vs. Atl Madrid – 110%
  • Schalke Vs. Chelsea – 108%
  • AC Milan Vs. Barcelona – 108%
  • Steaua Bucharest Vs. FC Basel – 106%
  • Porto Vs. Zenit St Petersburg – 101%
  • Celtic Vs. Ajax
22/10/2013 | By | Reply More
Screen profiles – Setting up Multiple Ladders and Charts

Screen profiles – Setting up Multiple Ladders and Charts

Further to my post on Bet Angel screen layouts, a recent conversation with a regular user has given me the chance to show off some clever things you can do with Bet Angel, Multiple ladders and screen profiles.

As we will be covering charts in this post, the first thing to note is that on the advanced charting you can pan and zoom through chart data to examine key turning points. If you load the markets into Guardian you …

20/10/2013 | By | Reply More
End of flat season nears – Trading advice

End of flat season nears – Trading advice

Nice to see Cheltenham on the card again, but with the first two races containing a total of nine runners, I’m not getting that excited about the jumps just yet.

Traditionally the end of the flat season is the November handicap at Doncaster. This falls on the 9th of November this year. But tomorrow being champions day at Ascot, will more or less be a celebration of the flat season.

The forecast for tomorrow is better than I expected …

18/10/2013 | By | Reply More
Ladbrokes ready exchange for launch

Ladbrokes ready exchange for launch

Activity picking up on Ladbrokes on what appears to be a launch, ahead of schedule, of the exchange that was touted at their results as I documented a little while ago.

A quick browse of the Ladbrokes website shows that the tab has already been added to the site ahead of the launch. So what do we expect to see?

Well, you may or not know, that Betdaq is actually intertwined with the ‘Global betting exchange’. The concept being …

17/10/2013 | By | Reply More
Betfair set to launch in New Jersey

Betfair set to launch in New Jersey

My industry antennae picked up this new website recently: –

https://www.letsplaynj.com/

Betfair appear to be readying for a launch in New Jersey, but unfortunately it’s just casino and gaming. Hardly ground breaking stuff. But interesting nonetheless.

The choice of imagery just above the subscription form is interesting. A London backdrop?

Anyhow, I’ll keep you updated when things mature a bit.

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16/10/2013 | By | Reply More
Home advantage for Poland

Home advantage for Poland

England at at short odds to win and get to Rio, I hope they do. I was too young to remember the legendary 1973 performance, but it seems everybody is drawing parallels with that. The simple fact is that life is best understood backwards but you have to live it forwards, so most forecasters will not be examining that chapter of England’s history and the price reflects that.

England also failed to qualify for the 1978 finals and I do …

15/10/2013 | By | Reply More
England Expects – Another draw?

England Expects – Another draw?

I’ll be watching but not trading tonight for the world cup qualifiers. As a rule of thumb I can’t trade something when I am emotionally attached to it. Tonight I’ll shall no doubt be shouting, moaning, directing and heading the ball at various points. I think I’d class that as an emotional attachment!

I’ll still do some stuff before the off and will probably carry that in play, but it terms of ‘hard core’ trading that can take a back …

11/10/2013 | By | Reply More
Does scalping still work?

Does scalping still work?

I’m doing a course today at the office where, amongst many things, I will talk about scalping and answer this question. The answer is ‘Yes’ by the way.

Qualifying the ‘yes’

For every market, there is a strategy and every strategy a market. Your mission is to join the two up. If you deploy the wrong strategy in the wrong market then you will get bad results. So underlying this ‘Yes’ is some depth and qualification, it takes a bit …

07/10/2013 | By | 1 Reply More
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

Once a year I will taste some French racing like a connoisseur tastes French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast.

I don’t tend to trade on Sunday’s, or on French racing; but the richest race in Europe always draws my attention as it and the companion races are nearly always an opportunity. Most of the surrounding card  in the UK is not the greatest quality, so I’ll tend to do some other …

06/10/2013 | By | Reply More
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