Recent Articles
Early kick off – Match preview
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post.
Man City v Everton
While David Moyes’ first Manchester derby at The Etihad turned into a nightmare, his Everton team always had an excellent record here. With Roberto Martinez having good memories of playing City from last season’s FA Cup final, can The Toffees maintain their unbeaten start?
Everton are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League but City have comfortably won all three of …
Goals, Goals, Goals….
If you search the blog for ‘Europa league ratings’ you should find a bundle of comments on previous Europe leagues . I don’t tend to post them much now as I never really got much feedback. I’m happy to post them regularly again if people want, I use them and it should be of use to others.
Number of goals
The thing I like about the Europe league at this stage is that it allows you to aggregate risk significantly. …
Automating your football trading
For those who have not yet tried the advanced automation feature within Bet Angel, football offers several opportunities to try this out. If you are unfamiliar with any features in Bet Angel, try them out in practice mode.
In this example I am going to show you how to automate a simple trade on the Over/Under 2.5 market and green out for a profit. I’ll explain why this works and things to look our for.
The Over/Under 2.5 goals …
Relegation & promotion markets and over reaction
I’ve been active in the promotion and relegation market for a few years now, but this year is a good example of why.
I’m always amazed at how volatile the market can be throughout the season. This year looks like an interesting year at the top, but I hadn’t imagined just how much prices would fluctuate so early in the season. I’m mean it’s only just started and yet people are heavily discounting something that won’t happen till next May.…
What’s a Mata with Chelsea?
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs.
Spurs v Chelsea
Spurs have conceded just one goal this season to sit second in the table behind arch rivals Arsenal . However, they lost their only major test so far, in the North London derby, so if they want to prove they are genuine title contenders they will look to make full use of home advantage here against Chelsea.
Four of the last six meetings between …
Good days, bad days and risk management
I have good and bad trades, good and bad days but generally I don’t have bad weeks and, in fact, as time progresses my chance of a loss decreases. Why, because of the way I manage risk.
Approach to risk
The way I approach risk is pretty much the same on a trade by trade basis or on a day by day basis. One major advantage you have in sports markets, is the large number of events taking place, so …
Will 1.01 be gubbed tonight?
Must admit that I hadn’t paid that much attention to the America’s cup yachting and even less as a trading event, but the remarkable turnaround by team USA has set up a fascinating finale this evening.
New Zealand raced to a 8-1 lead and it was seemingly impossible that they could loose the cup, but tonight could be set for one of those remarkable sporting comebacks. Certain the momentum is with Team USA.
New Zealand have already been matched at …
Original Betfair investor cashes out
News today that Balderton Capital ‘cashed out’ it’s remaining investment in Betfair.
An RNS notice appeared today showing that Balderton had sold 4,227,170 shares bringing their holding from 4.04% to 0%.
The significance of this is that Balderton were one of the original investors. To quote their website: –
“Balderton’s original investment in Betfair was made in 2000 and it remains one of the largest institutional shareholders post the listing. The partners have been actively involved in the development …
New version of Bet Angel available
We were pleased launch the latest version of Bet Angel over the weekend, version 1.35. You can read more about it and watch some videos in the newsletter that was sent at the weekend: –
https://www.betangel.com/newsletter/
Key improvement is more customisation of the ladder interface and the new ability to be able to spawn multiple ladders on multiple markets from the most common market selection tools in Bet Angel.
If you are an existing Bet Angel subscriber just download …
Fiery Italians Produce Dirty Derbies
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.
Fiery Italians Produce Dirty …
Manchester Derby – Match preview
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post, E&OE and all that. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information. Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.…
Betfair reaffirm the importance of their exchange
You may remember our campaign a little while ago where we encouraged everybody to provide some feedback to Betfair, you can read the original post by clicking here.
Well it seems they are listening as they posted a full response this morning and re-opened the thread again. I’ve extracted some of the response here to highlight some key elements in it: –
Thanks to everyone who voted, your opinion counts and we recognise that introduction of the Sportsbook may …
Authorities close in on match fixing king
News this morning of many arrests in Singapore and the possibility that the leader of a global fixing ring, Dan Tan, is in custody.
If you want to understand why sports betting often gets such a bad press then here is the story that should explain why for you: –
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/dan-tan-the-man-who-fixed-football-8554751.html
I find it frustrating that corruption exists in sport and I believe its one of the reasons why if you manage to make some money in this market then …
Creating and saving multiple screen layouts with Bet Angel
Sometimes people say to me ‘I don’t like the layout of Bet Angel’ or that they would change some things around, perhaps add or remove something. Well, you can actually already do that.
Not only that you can save any number of screen layouts for use in the future, configured exactly as you require either for a particular strategy or a particular market. Both the Betfair and Betdaq versions of the software have this ability. To help you I have …
Will the premier league goal drought continue?
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.
ANALYSIS – WILL THE …
St Leger meeting
For some background to this meeting have a read of this wiki link.
I must admit, from a trading perspective, I haven’t got a great deal out of this meeting in the past. So I tend to not set high expectations only be disappointed. I tend to treat it as a decent meeting, but not something I expect to get anything stunning from. I see some people are talking it up, but that just shows they haven’t traded it …
Bert sells more Betfair shares
With Betfair shares now approaching £10.55, seemingly a bit ahead of current events. Andrew Black, founder of Betfair, sold another tranche of shares yesterday. The sale amounted to 600k of shares somewhere over £6m in total. This sales leaves Bert with just over 4m shares down from 10.5m back on 14th November 2011. So Bert has reduced his holding by over 60% in less than two years.
Shares hit a low of £6.50 this year before running up on a …
Betfair change home page (again)
Thanks to a machine I use that doesn’t allow cookies I was able to see that Betfair have changed their home page again.
I don’t know whether this was in response to the campaign I kicked off recently, I doubt that alone was responsible, but at least I was able to make your voices heard.
Anyhow the exchange now sits alongside the sports book. For those that are cookied up you can see the changes on the following link: …
Betfair re-invigorate Tradefair platform
Visting the Tradefair site this morning I noticed at announcement on the home page: –
“We are excited to announce that we are now partnering with GFT Global Markets UK Ltd (GFT Markets) to bring you a new service with enhanced tools, features and first class customer service that we believe will make your trading experience even better. Switch by no later than the 12th December 2013, as your existing Tradefair service will become inactive for new trades from that …
Predicting the winner of the US Open
It’s not just the players that are complaining about the scheduling of the US Open Tennis. I can’t trade the final tonight as it’s my wedding anniversary today. I’ve been married even longer than I’ve been on Betfair, but one benefit of that is the next generation of traders is following just behind me!
I saw this interesting BBC article this morning and it talks about the data collection that IBM do as part of their deal to these tournaments: …
Sound alerts – Making a noise with Bet Angel Automation
Guardian Automation is a great way of having Bet Angel automatically place bets or manage a market when you are not there. But sometimes you may be there but cannot keep eyes on all markets.
One handy little feature of the Automation tool is the ability to play a custom sound when an event occurs.
Here I’m going to show you how to create an alert. Once you know how to do it, have a go at creating your own.…
The market can be bizzare sometimes
We were treated to a spectacular turn of events last night at the US Open Tennis.
By a coincidence, I have been carefully studying the way the market behaves before the off at the US Open this year. More or less it’s flat as a pancake, but there are subtle bits of information contained in the pre-off pricing. I’ve been more interested in how this changes over the rounds.
In the latter stages of the tournament as the amount pre-off …
The affect of the international break
First in a regular series of posts from our friends over at Football Form Labs. Endorsement follows….
Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.…
Betfair paint a confusing picture
It’s the Betfair AGM today, I wont be going this year as I have sold my shares. But I know somebody who is, so I’ll let you know if anything interesting comes out of it. In line with this an interim management statement was issued this morning.
Generally the tone was bullish despite reporting a decline in revenue. Revenue was down 13% year on year but underlying earnings were up. Betfair wrote off a lot of expenses in the last …
Why we have a Federer fail
Lots of press this morning about the ‘shock’ exit of Roger Federer in the US Open. But, as I have posted before, Federer is definitely in the twilight of his career. As a middle aged man, much as I hate to admit it, 32 is old in sporting terms. In Tennis, players turn pro at an average age of 18 and retire at 32, Federer is 32.
I love analysing all sorts of things to spot, and more importantly, anticipate …
Betfair Trader Scam – Please read and share
I refer everybody again to a post we made back in July warning people of a scam that is going around. Please do your best to circulate and share this blog post so people don’t get caught and so that people who have been caught, can come forward.
I’m happy to champion this cause to try and bring this scam to a halt. But I need anybody affected to contact me so we can gather enough evidence to do something …
The missing link in trading
I’ve been on a very long journey to understand risk and trading as I do now. When I talk and examine risk I do so almost intuitively now, but I had to learn it all the hard way, from the ground up.
The journey has led me to re-examine myself a lot. I’ve had to learn and improve my ability in three distinct things, trading (the structural bit), modelling markets (the understanding bit) and finally a bit of psychology (the …
Some US Open tennis detail
I meant to post this earlier in the week, but other matters have over taken me, but I hope this gives you a hint at some of the metrics and variation at this tournament.
The surface at the US Open has been Decoturf since 1978. This is faster and has a lower bounce than the other Hard court slam, the Australian open. Because of this, many serve-and-volley players have done well at the US Open.
I looked back over 13 …
Marmite Monday
It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day.
There will be lots of meetings on today and about a billion races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, a lot isn’t of quality and many races will clash meaning that you can’t do much …
Procrastination is the enemy of success
Last year I had an idea, I added it to the list. For a lot of people that’s where the experiment ends, diet’s always start tomorrow etc.
But for me when I get a bright idea, no matter how crazy, I make a note of it and follow up. I tend to work on a few at any one time as most stay as crazy ideas, don’t work , I learn nothing or realise my thought process was wrong. But …
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