Recent Articles
The thin line between individual skill in Tennis
If you have been active on Wimbledon these past two weeks you would have seen some great matches. But you should have also seen something else, maybe without realising it.
Often you see an outsider really battle away at a heavy odds on favourite, maybe even winning the first set, but despite this their odds don’t seem to come in that much. If you look at Murray’s match against Janowicz, Janowicz was at one set all and leading 4-1. His …
Shock or not?
All the talk during Wimbledon so far has been about the surprise at seeing seeded players crashing out of the tournament. Just how ‘shocking’ is it?
I looked backed at 12 years of Wimbledon and ranked each round by the lowest ranked loser in each round on the men’s Tennis. Averaging out the results in each round shows that there isn’t really much of a bias per round. The average rank of a losing player in any round is more …
Bartoli Bonkers
I fancied the Stephens vs Bartoli match above others yesterday because it looked much more competitive. It turned out to be a very interesting match.
Bartoli was soundly disliked for pushing for a rain break when the crowd wanted more action, but the break didn’t do much to diminish her spirit and she closed out the match. In fact it looked like a bit of gamesmanship from Bartoli. She demanded to stop play at 4-5 to her and 40-40 on …
British F1 Grand Prix
I’m off to my annual Dad and Son day out at the British GP today and the weather looks like it will be perfect. I’ve won a BMW Z4 for the weekend as well, so that just perfect and I’ll be using that to full effect by hacking up and down the M40 to Silverstone over the weekend. Trading can wait for this Sunday! By the time you read this I’ll already be sat in the Grandstand at Silverstone.
The …
When is a Tennis player most likely to hold serve?
If you back a player before they serve, they are very likely to win their service game. At which point the odds will contract and you can net a profit, hurrah! Sounds easy, but nothing ever is that simple is it?
So, one itching question I sought to solve last year was “Which game is a player most likely to win on serve”. The hypothesis was that the propensity to win on serve is higher at some times than others.…
An Ace is worth more than a point
When you read that statement it looks a little strange. How can one point be worth more than another? But statistics seem to show that’s true.
Over the last couple of years, I’ve been busy collecting data on a range of Tennis matches from the top level of how a match played, in games and sets, right down to individual points.
I’ve been carefully examining how one point affects another and spotted what seemed to be a bias on serving …
Retirements at Wimbledon
What a strange day that was yesterday? Most of the commentators were a little perplexed by the unfolding retirement situation and then to top it off we have defending champion Federer out in road two, which opens up the tournament significantly for Mr Murray.
But of course the talk was all about the large number of retirements, so lets see if it really was that unusual.
Checking back on women’s Tennis at Wimbledon there have been 12 retirements and three …
Can you predict 1.01 defeats in Tennis?
Surface problems aside, the main news from Wimbledon this week was the ‘shock’ defeat of Rafa Nadal, shortly followed by Federer. Nadal was a shock, apart from the fact that last year he crashed out in similar circumstances, it was just a round later. Coincidence, predictable or a shock?
A couple of factors play into the hands of the Nadal shock this time. The first is that Rafa’s game leads him to get injured more often than other players, he’s …
Wimbledon stats
I’ve written up Wimbledon in one sort or another for quite a few years now. Some of the stats are obvious, some less so. I’ll see if I can find the time over the next two weeks to put up some stats, as well as some summaries of interesting matches or scenarios. I’m looking forward to Wimbledon, though I should point out that I won’t be starting in earnest until Tuesday this year. I need a rest after Ascot! I’m …
My Betfair birthday
I celebrated my ‘Betfair Birthday’ this week, I am now a Betfair teenager! It’s been just over thirteen years since I opened my account and started betting.
What better way to ‘celebrate’ than to look back at the moment I took the big jump? If you would have told me that thirteen years ago what I do now, I just wouldn’t have believed it remotely possible. Therefore, I suggest you always use the word impossible with the greatness of caution.…
Ascot so far
Sorry I didn’t provide an update yesterday, it’s just a very, very busy week!
The top line
On the top line turnover is down for Betfair and up for Betdaq. Betdaq numbers are harder to decipher than Betfair but you can see a persistent lift in turnover, however you view or cut the numbers.
On Betfair on the first three days produced £36.9m in matched bets vs £43.7m last year – £6.8m lower than last year. The current trend, turnover …
Australian racing invites back traders
Good news from the ever changing world of racing today as Betfair confirmed that the recent announcement from racing Victoria meant that conventional trading was going to be possible again, at least in the state of Victoria.
Previously a turnover charge was levied on activity and that killed the prospect of backing and laying in the same market. Now Victoria are saying they want the charge levied on net activity in the market. So they benefit from new revenue and …
Ascot day one trading review
Total matched bet turnover at post time was £13.9m vs £15.6m last year, down 11%. But some of this will be due to the fact we didn’t have a really short priced favourite in the field. Today should give us a more representative day.
Yesterday was a little erratic and no clear trading characteristics came out of it. The first day of big meetings I tend to ‘play around’ a little in the market to test things and that went …
The numbers behind Royal Ascot
And so here we are, another year, another Ascot. For me, another declined invitation to attend. While that pains me, in another couple of years it won’t be a problem. But for the moment, I’d still rather be on this side of the desk during one of the busiest weeks of the year.
Wall to wall, quality racing, from now till Saturday, I’m in trading heaven! Let’s see how it all adds up.
Last year Royal Ascot had matched bet …
US Open Golf – The cut(ish)
Day two at the US Open ended up turning into Day 1.5 when play was suspended because of light at about 20:30 local time with 68 players still to complete round two. So we have have not quite reached the cut. For anybody in before the off, it’s probably worth tidying up now if you are doing other stuff this afternoon. Or else you can keep things going till the last possible moment until the actual cut.
A much more …
A week in the life…
I penned a post earlier in the week about a day in the life. It was a bit off the cuff and I was surprised to get some feedback on it, blogging can be a lonely pastime, so thanks for your messages! Getting some feedback had prompted me to talk about a week in my life.
Seasonal variation
First thing to note is that my week changes throughout the year. I’m guided by the sporting calendar. In the summer this …
US Open Golf day one
Weather did have an effect on the day but not as dramatic as I may have hoped for, conditions where generally quite good. The ground staff have done an excellent job it seems. Still trying not to laugh at the ‘flags’ though!
Woods got off to an indifferent start, but the top of the leaderboard took advantage of that to establish a lead. The front of the book generally slipped, mainly thanks to Woods. But no real contenders came from …
US Open Golf at Merion – Nice set up
There are four hours left to the official start of the US Open but whether they start on time or finish a full session today very much depends on what happens with the appalling weather at Merion.
You often see the British Open throwing up some challenging conditions, but I’m not sure I have seen much worse than those at Merion so far this week. Merion received six inches of rain between last Friday and Monday and the forecast indicates …
A day in the life
A slightly philosophical post for today.
So, it’s 20:20 and I just picked up £200 or so from the last four races. Was rather hoping there would be some Tennis around as well, but such is life.
Here is a snapshot of my life for the day: –
Up at 06:30, read emails and stuff, picked up data from the day before and did some analysis on it. Made some notes to follow up on later in the afternoon in-between …
AEGON vs. AEGON
Just watching the action at Queens club at the moment and thought I scout around for any characteristics I could find.
I recently ranked all tournaments by volatility, amongst other things, and noticed something curious about the AEGON grass court championships.
If you look at last year at Queens the data seems to indicate that there were no matches that swung from 1.01 to a loss. Now it’s not impossible that I have missed the odd match, so please correct …
Canadian F1 Grand Prix
During the F1 season you will see me pop up with the odd stat. This is based on the research I completed this year.
I’ve been waiting for Canadian Grand Prix to come around as this is one of the least predictable from an outcome viewpoint (putting aside all the vagaries already in F1 this year). The circuit has been described as a ‘street curcuit without the houses’.
If you look historically at the Canadian GP the top qualifier only …
Short priced Tennis finals
We’ve reached the closing stages of the French Open and have ended up with two short priced favourites for both finals. One is the function of the seeding and draw, the other through form.
Of the two matches the women’s final looks to hold more potential, if Sharapova can come up with a game plan to unsettle Williams. In Tennis the most common tactic is to come out all guns blazing and try and get a quick break in the …
Finals day at Roland Garros
Ha, it’s obviously not, but it may well as be. The match of the men’s tournament is upon us and deserves a lot of attention today. Nadal has ended up playing Djokovic in the semis thanks to his 3rd seed status, but it’s a match befitting the final.
On the other side of the draw Tsonga is the big benefactor of Rafa’s seeding and has an intriguing match against Ferrer.
Here are some stats for the Djokovic vs Nadal match, …
Understanding UK Horse Racing
Most people understand most sports on the exchanges, but for some the terminology and structure behind racing can be a bit of a mystery. It took me some time fully graps what racing was all about and I’m no expert, but it helped how I trade the market. People attending my course will know I talk about it a fair bit. So I’ve invited forum racing favourite ‘JollyGreen’ to give you some broader background to racing. Here is the first …
Doing a back flip
The quarters are on us in the French Open Tennis and at first sight they look uncompetitive. The favourites are very short against their opponents. But when trading you are not that interested in how short a price something is, more where it can do.
So on short priced Tennis matches I’ll often try and do a ‘back flip’. I’ll happily back the outsider on the basis that if the short priced favourite doesn’t grab the match by the scruff …
History made at the French Open
The French Open is at the quarter final stage now and it’s generally been good stuff so far. Not as many major shocks as you could have wished for, but plenty of competitive swingy games. It’s generally been good trading fodder and the average range of volatility this year has been above normal. So I would imagine a lot of people have managed to pick up some decent results.
Because it’s been above average don’t get suckered into believing you …
Derby post mortem
An interesting Derby meeting this year. I don’t often post up analysis after the event but I thought it was worth a few notes this year.
I managed to pull a decent result out of the hat on Saturday, but I think I’d describe it as exactly that, ‘Out of the hat’. It was a bit of an erratic today, where I ended up with quite a bumpy P&L.
For some reason UK racing thought that putting on lots of …
Insight into the failed Betfair bid
Nice peice yesterday from Alistair Osborne on the failed bid for Betfair. Alistair has an interview with Richard Koch which goes in depth on the process and ultimate failure of the bid. Worth a read: –
Spot the ‘greensider’ competition
Nipped up the road to Wentworth last Sunday for the BMW PGA Championships.
I reckon you have your next golf star laid out in front of you in the form of Matteo Manassero. Only 20, he is playing beyond his years already and I reckon he could have an impact in a major sooner rather than later. He has four tour wins now and he is already being backed in for both Open championships. One to watch.
I went …
Derby Day – Trading outlook
An OK week so far. Some of the racing hasn’t been great, but that’s given me more time to work on the French Open. A distinct lack of ‘shocks’ so far but slow and steady wins the race, as they say.
Looking forward to Derby day though and it can produce some big volumes. Last year Epsom produced £12.3m matched bet turnover for the day but that was a bit distorted by Camelot. Just that race alone accounted for around …
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