Recent Articles
The Oaks – Betfair’s first ever market
So today we reach the Oaks and tomorrow the Derby, when the summer racing really starts to step up a gear. The start of June means Royal Ascot is just around the corner.
If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at Epsom was Betfair’s first market way back when they started in June 2000. But it was a little later that year, on June 11th. Mark Davis reminisced on his blog about it. I …
It’s no wonder gambling has an image problem!
Here is my own personal take on the Elliot Short story and his subsequent jail sentence.
If there is one thing that frustrates me about what I am currently doing, its the image the betting industry has. This leads people to have deep seated issues with anybody who has anything to do with it. It’s almost as bad as the banking industry! Quite clearly it’s a gambling industry issue and one that’s driven by things like the Elliot Short …
French Open Tennis – Thank you again Monfils
A nice couple of contrasting matches yesterday.
First of we had Nadal slip to a set down and 0-3 down in the second set tie break. Of course, he dug deep and pulled himself out of trouble. But you would probably be quite surprised how often favourites get into trouble at short odds. The key factor being that the opponent really has to take them game to the favourite right from the off to stand any chance of winning; so …
Australia moves to restrict live betting
News from down under today that the government is ‘encouraging’ a ban on live betting odds during sports broadcasting in Australia. That great big stick of legislation is being waved to ensure implementation.
Prime Minister Julia Gillard said it was good news for Australian families, who were becoming “increasingly frustrated” with the spruiking of live odds on their television screens.
Full story here: –
https://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2013/5/26/politics/pm-unveils-plan-ban-live-betting-odds
Monaco F1 GP
I’ve pretty much completed my study of F1 circuits just in time for the high profile Monaco Grand Prix.
You could be forgiven for thinking that if you qualify on pole in Monaco you will win. The tight street circuit is a big test for anybody who is attempting to overtake, but my stats give a different story.
Monaco was one of the first circuits I profiled and it was because I expected it to throw of some definable characteristics. …
Football – And so the hard work begins…
I failed in the ballot in my attempt to get tickets for the European Champions league final at Wembley today, such is life. I thought I may slip into some hospitality somewhere, till I saw the cost! It’s funny really, because I thought going to watch the Monaco Grand Prix would cost an arm and a leg. But on researching that, it seems I can still do that cheaper than the hour journey to Wembley! So Monaco will be on …
BMW PGA – Wentworth – The Cut
List of positive movers at the cut, returns to £10 stakes. The really bad weather on Thursday and Friday put paid to a host of contenders chances so this has been very beneficial for people further down the field at the start. Weather forecast is good today and tomorrow so I would imagine some of the higher ranked players will re-assert there authority on the tournament.
I’m busy on other sports today but will be heading over to Wentworth for …
BMW PGA Golf – Laying Luke
Not the biggest turnover Golf tournament on the calendar from a matched bet turnover perspective, but the nearest one to home!
So this week, I’ve been popping back and forth to Wentworth to keep an eye on proceedings in the morning. It’s not too far from me so I can do the school run and then divert up the M3 to the golf course.
I nipped along for the first time on Wednesday for the Pro-AM day. I used the …
Next Everton manager
Despite no football matches being on, there is still gold in them thar hills! The next Everton manager market is looking like providing a nice post season boost to my footy results.
Currently we have had six potential managers trading at odds of 4.00 or lower and there still seems to be a fair amount of uncertainty as to who could be the anointed one. Anybody who has been on my course should have been active on this market and …
Betfair add Sportsbook cash out facility
Nipped onto the Betfair site this afternoon to sort out some things on my account only to be re-directed to the sportsbook again, sigh.
I was greeted by a re-designed sportsbook page with the words ‘Cash out – BETA’ appearing right in front of me. It appears this is a new function and replaces the link to the exchange saying ‘cash out – you need to use the exchange’. Anybody visiting the home page would be hard pressed now to …
Creating a ‘fat finger’ rule with Bet Angel automation
I slipped this video into the section on automation last weekend, but I reckon a few people would have missed it; because I didn’t specifically highlight it.
This video demonstrates how to create a rule using Guardian automation to capture favourable odds that can be created when the market goes a bit ‘loopy’. It’s a rule that can run in the background automatically regardless of what you are doing in your main trading interface.
We have a thread on the …
Today’s crop of dodgy football matches
The football season is pretty much over, but the fun and games are not it seems. With a few things to be decided in Italy there is still time for some unusual odds, volume and perhaps results? I have attached an image for posterity. At 09:00 this morning the matched bet volume on Verona vs Empoli was the leading traded volume on the football for the entire day for all matches!
Novara vs Lanciano – £15k matched, £11k on the …
Racing steps up a gear
Nice looking card today with Newbury, York and Newmarket then Aintree in the evening. So I’m rubbing my hands at the prospect of some more action today.
The better quality racing has been quite good this week, the other stuff in-between not so great. But I’ve managed to pull out the odd decent result while avoiding the worst of things. It’s noticeable recently though, particularly since mid April, that trying to get an order filled on the weaker betting markets …
York Dante meeting
After a successful Chester meeting last week we roll onto York for the Dante meeting this week.
The York card looks OK but the other stuff on the card today looks a little ‘testing’. I’ve never managed to consistently pull out any big totals from this York meeting in the past but I approach each market with a fresh set of eyes, so you never know.
As we move through the early part of the flat turf season the early …
Betfair find a new home for flutter.com
Remember flutter? I do, I signed up for flutter.com around the same time I signed up for Betfair.
Flutter was one of Betfair’s biggest competitors before spending a lot of money pursuing slightly the wrong angle and falling victim to a Betfair takeover in their infancy.
I’ve been an advocate of Betfair using the Flutter brand to launch their assault on the gaming and sportsbook market while leaving the exchange mechanism to the suitably named Betfair. However it looks like …
Roland Garros on the horizon
The European clay court season is in full flow now and Rafael Nadal lifted his 40th career title on clay and 5th title this year at the Madrid Masters. On the women’s side Serena Williams successfully defended her Madrid Open title and kept her world #1 status in defeating Maria Sharapova. This was despite a massive scare in the quarter finals. We now move to Rome for the ‘International BNL d’Italia’ which will be the last tournament before Roland Garros.…
Betfair and CVC terminate takeover talks
Full statement here – https://www.betangel.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=35&t=2623&start=266
Looks like I was right to sell into the market. It will be interesting to see what price the shares open at this morning. Highlights of the statement: –
Following the announcement of the trading and strategy update, the Board received a revised proposal from the Co-offerors (the “Revised Proposal”) on the evening of Friday, 10 May 2013. The Revised Proposal valued each Betfair share at 920 pence per share in cash. On the morning …
City awaits CVC Betfair bid, or not
CVC, the private equity group that was revealed as in talks with Betfair about a possible bid, has until 5pm today to put in a bid or walk away.
The city is talking up a bid of £10, or somewhere near that, to get discussions really going. Betfair shares have responded in kind to this potential. But it’s really a case of how much risk CVC wants to take.
At certain prices Betfair would be a slam dunk investment. I …
Using Bet Angel’s Advanced Automation
Automating your activity is often referred to as ‘botting’, the colloquial term for using a robot to perform activity on your behalf. As well as fully featured betting and trading tools, Bet Angel also includes many automation type features.
Using Automation with Bet Angel will save you time and improve your effectiveness in a market. You can standardise a strategy, test a theory, supplement your existing activity, participate at low risk on new markets, automate the entry or exit of …
Using Bet Angel’s Basic automation
Let’s imagine we want to bet on a runner that looks like it will win. For example, we may have noted in certain types of races that the first runner to dip below 1.4 generally goes on to win. We can ask Bet Angel to place a BACK bet using the Back Automation Rule:
If current odds >=1.01 and odds <=1.4 and WOM<=100% Place at 1.01
This is saying if the price of the runner reaches anywhere between 1.01 and …
How to automate your Betting or Trading
Bet Angel has many exciting features but none more interesting than that of automation. Automation offers the tantalising promise of unattended and automatic trading that free you up to trade on other markets while it works its magic in the background or do something else – like go to work, or play some golf!
But seriously, putting the Excel streadsheet integration to one side, Bet Angel also has key two automation areas. When you start Bet Angel there is an …
My season long shot
May day is pay day for me, on a number of football markets. Season long bets mature and pay out months of hard work.
Relegation and promotion markets are something I play in each year and they can be quite fertile territory, if you have the patience.
Where to look
The new manager effect is a well understood phenomena in football. The old manager is given the boot and existing players suddenly have somebody new to impress. It’s a little …
How do the Italians get away with it?
I know I’ve posted a few times on this, but it’s really difficult to fathom in an age of close scrutiny and elevated morality in sport how matches like this occur. Today – Bari vs Cesena
I just downloaded todays football for analysis and on this match £30k has been match and all but a minor amount has been matched on the draw, which is going off odds on! Amazing, or it would be, if it wasn’t so predictable!
You …
Peak trading season nears
58 races on the card, Tennis in Madrid, players championship golf, this is all good stuff.
We are well and truly embedded in the flat turf season now. 58 races greet us on the card today and there must be at least a dozen really decent opportunities in there. I’d love to tell you what they are, but my trading style means I wont know until we are much nearer the start. But it’s all good stuff out there.
The …
Racing Victoria ups the ante
A statement from Racing Victoria this morning seems to up the ante of fees generated from bookmakers, any higher and you would think it would make sense for them to buy a bookmaker rather than going through the hassle of collecting it from them.
Despite seeing $44m, an increase of 25%, in the amount they are getting for racing, it seems that’s not enough so they are upping the rates again. It seems a dangerous tactic, but as with these …
The longest running Betfair market ever
News that Sir Alex Ferguson is about to retire has re-ignited interest in the long forgotten ‘Next Man Utd manager market’.
This is a market that must hold the record for the longest ever market on Betfair. Some must be glad it is coming to a close! According to the start date on Betfair, the market first opened on 17th September 2001! I realised it had been up there for some time, but that date even surprised me.
Since the …
Betfair test new pricing models
Betfair announced their FY2013 post close trading update today and generally put a positive slant on things. True detail was hard to come by though.
The S word got a lot of mentions today but it was a confusing picture, for me at least. They showed big growth in the sportsbook customer base, but didn’t indicate whether it included the Blue Square stuff or not? So it’s difficult to know if that figure has any relevance. Also last year the …
Strange Betfair error you need to be aware of
While browsing the Betfair site today I spotted an error that could lead to you placing a bet on the sportsbooks rather than the exchange. Even if you are logged into and using the exchange. Please see the following video: –
End of season Italian football – I predict a draw
As I have pointed out in prior years at the same time, end of season Italian football can throw up some strange situations and odds. Here are the ‘top’ eight matches with the lowest price for the draw today.
Spezia Vs. Lanciano – Draw odds – 2.08
Cesena Vs. Juve Stabia – Draw odds – 2.1
Chievo Vs. Cagliari – Draw odds – 2.3
Cittadella Vs. Reggina – Draw odds – 3.1
Crotone Vs. Modena – Draw odds – 3.3…
All set for the Newmarket Guineas
The weather is looking great this weekend for the first real big trading market of the flat season, the Guineas. Good weather on a bank holiday weekend, I must be dreaming!
I’ve always enjoyed the Guineas meeting and have had some fun and game over the years on it. I’m really interested in how it will perform this year as we’ve spotted two major changes in the market between this year and last. So this weekend is turning into an …
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