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The comeback kings
When trading you are looking to lay at the shortest possible odds first then trade out at much higher odds, or vice versa. Doesn’t matter which, I’ll take either!
However you need something to happen for that opportunity to arise. In football there are many ways that this can happen but the main method to see a swing in odds is goals.
The perfect scenario is for a team to conceded a goal then comeback to win the match. This …
New version of Bet Angel
Just in case you missed it, you may not be on our mailing list, we recently released a new version of Bet Angel. Lots of tweaks and enhancements but the main upgrade was a new feature we have added to Bet Angel’s Guardian feature.
Guardian is the powerful multi-featured, multi-market tool within Bet Angel. Using Guardian you can search for, view, sort and trade multiple markets all at once; even if Guardian is closed. This means you can cover …
Newton would have used exchanges
Newton’s Third Law states that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction. Sometimes people are perplexed at how you can correctly call price action on an exchange, but sometimes it’s quite easy; thanks to referancing Newton’s third law.
Every betting market must add up to 100%. It’s impossible for it to exceed that value in either direction for any prolonged period of time. So if something is coming in, in one direction, this means something else, either …
Betfair forced to exit Germany
In another blow for international expansion Betfair has been forced to exit Germany.
In July Germany applied a turnover tax of 5% on stakes which Betfair believed wasn’t applicable to it. Betfair confirmed that discussions are continuing with tax authorities regarding the potential tax liability, if any, arising from bets placed on its exchange since the law came into effect.
Betfair is now reviewing its operations in this market. In FY12, approximately 4% of Core Betfair revenue came from Germany …
Next US president is……
US Presidential markets are surprisingly good trading fodder.
OK, I know we have some European football on this evening and the Melbourne cup just passed, but once in four years means I will devote this post today to draw your attention to this market.
The last market in 2008 drew total traded volume of £13m. This was actually down on the previous election in 2004 where a lot of uncertainty created a wild swing in the market. At one point …
Melbourne cup
I’ll be interested to see what the Melbourne cup does overnight this year.
This is the first time it has been run since the turnover tax was implemented in Australia which the objective of protecting the incumbent operators in the market. I think the outcome, so far, has shown that traders don’t dominate the market in the manner people previously assumed. Turnover, as far as I can see, on most big races is pretty much the same as before and …
Interesting week ahead
We have a really decent week ahead of us on the markets. Lots of sporting and non sporting action ahead and some interesting markets.
The ATP World tour finals start this week in London and volumes will be high. If you get the chance book a ticket and go and watch it. It is very entertaining. Nothing like the stuffy experience of Wimbledon, where you can’t even get a ticket anyhow! Be aware of the different scoring system at this …
Trading the unexpected
Reading 5, Arsenal 7 – This was obvious the stand out football result from the last week. A most remarkable scoreline.
For so many goals to be scored in one match is rare, especially seven goals away from home; though Leeds fans may have more recent memories. But to win 7-5 from 4-0 down is remarkable. I’ve been scanning my records to see if I could find an example, but I can’t. 4-4 draw’s are rare, but I do …
Lots of good quality racing
It’s the time of year for marathon trading sessions. Lots of quality racing around, just none in the UK!
UK racing starts in the early afternoon, then morphs into evening racing. Today and tomorrow we also have the Breeders cup in California late into the night UK time. As that ends we immediately switch to Melbourne Cup meeting at Flemington.
In theory you could trade on just racing from just after midday right through to 7am tomorrow morning. It would …
Trading psychology in a nutshell
Some time ago I sat two people down and gave them each a simple trading strategy. I wanted to observe first hand how people executed them.
The reason I did this, was that it had become apparent to me sometime ago, that given the same set of instructions, people often execute differently. The difference appears to be psychological.
On one desk we had one person executing fairly well and making a small profit. On the other desk we had another …
By the skin of their teeth
Last night I forecasted around 24 goals and we ended up with 22. I should have used a decimal place as my spreadsheet actually said 23.5, but forecasting half a goal often doesn’t make sense to some readers! Tonight I am aiming for 22.75 and we have a generally more competitive set up for the matches tonight. Dortmund caught my eye on the last round and I’ll be looking closely at their match with Real Madrid this evening. I’m not …
A evening that’s overs before its started?
Not quite as uncompetitive as the recent International football but still some, theoretically, one sided matches this evening.
I’ve just ploughed through my spreadsheets and they seem to be forecasting around 24 goals this evening. On eight matches that averages out to just under three a game, hence the headline. Most goals are expected in the Barcelona, no surprise there, and least in the BATE v Valencia match, but most are towards the higher end of the scale. Curiously this …
Farewell Frankel
A horses racing career is pretty short isn’t it?
It’s not something I had appreciated until I learnt more about horse racing. But being so highly rated Frankel is now too valuable to continue racing. Instead he will spend the rest of his days trying to produce ‘Frankel junior’ at some point in the future. Though there is a possibility we may not see another similar horse for quite a few years.
Undefeated in all 13 of his races, Frankel …
A remarkable evening
That was an interesting night.
For some reason the polish officials thought that with a large weather front moving over Poland full of rain, it was a good idea to let the pitch get completely waterlogged by not closing the roof. Echos of June & Euro 2012, though that was a bit further to the east. Any how, onto what did take place….
It was good to see Portugal engaging in austerity, unfortunately for their fans it was in front …
Getting a little jumpy
It’s that time of year when the flat turf season yields to the jumps.
You often find the markets and underlying results go a bit wonky at this time. Things don’t act the same way as normal and markets shift a bit, I have mentioned this in previous years.
You tend to find, feature races being the exception of course, that the flat turf races tail off and it’s too early for form lines to be properly assessed on the …
Money buyers of the world unite!
World Cup qualifiers are the order of the day again and we have some highly uncompetitive matches on the card. So uncompetitive you would be sorely tempted to re-mortgage the house and lump it on a few on these matches. The Czech’s are 1.08 to beat the mighty Malta at home. If that’s not good enough, Netherlands at 1.01 to attack Andorra looks tempting. But the daddy of them all is England to beat San Marino at 1.01. Surely worth …
Home advantage
One rule I have, is to favour positions where they is a psychological bias in the in the underlying event. What do I mean?
Take a look at the post I made about the Olympics not so long ago. This post documented home advantage bias with some academic evidence and concluded by explaining a number of reasons why this exists.
Imagine in a football match that we have a strong home team playing a weak away team and the away …
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc
Once a year I will taste some French racing like a connoisseur tastes French wine, with a sense of appreciation but with the gusto of a true enthusiast.
I don’t tend to trade on Sunday’s, or on French racing; but the richest race in Europe always draws my attention as it and the companion races are nearly always an opportunity. Most of the surrounding card in the UK is not the greatest quality, so I’ll tend to do some other …
Mass aggregation
A rather opaque title for a football post.
This evening we have the Europa league football and I like this stage of the tournament because, as I mentioned in my other post recently, the mass of markets means I can make a hash of things and most likely still end in profit. Actually I didn’t say that, I said that you could improve your expectation of a profit by spreading your risk. But I hope you see what I …
Hedge your bets
Last night in the champions league we had a range of generally uncompetitive matches. Only Galatasaray vs Braga exhibited the characteristics of a match that could potentially be tight.
Of course you can never quite tell in Football. The average number of goals scored is quite low so results can be highly variable. A ball in the back of the net off a ‘wicked’ deflection, why are all deflections ‘wicked’?, could easily see a side take the lead unexpectedly. From …
Miracle of Medinah – Europe win the Ryder Cup
Well, we did think it would be close, but after the first day or so it really looked like an uphill battle for Europe. In the end it was one of the closest most remarkable Ryder Cup’s yet played.
Thanks to some wonderful golf from both sides we ended up with an amazing spectacle, much better than you could have imagined. More remarkably, Europe completed an amazing turnaround to bring the Ryder Cup back to Europe, again. Who would have …
Newmarket Cambridgeshire & a bit of a warning
An interesting set up for racing today. It’s a shame Ripon is off and Chester is only 5 minutes in front of Newmarket.
I’ve picked off a few good results from the Cambridgshire in the past but I will remember this race forever for the disaster of last year.
As we approached the key race of the day people started posting in the forum about performance issues with Betfair, we have a specific thread for this. Having done well on …
Trading the Ryder Cup Golf
Looking forward to the Ryder cup this weekend. Nothing like a bit of Patrotism to spice up a sporting event!
I did a full write up on the Ryder Cup last time around but have been too busy to do so this year. One thing I remember really well from th 2008 Ryder cup was how ‘the tie’ played out in a competitive competition.
This year looks very competitive, though I was surprised to see home advantage priced in as …
‘Webbinar’ thanks
Many thanks for the huge turnout at last nights Webinar. It’s been a while since we last did one so we were expecting to be busy, but I hadn’t anticipated just how busy it would be!
So a big thank you for your attendance and for the huge numbers of questions submitted. I’m sorry we couldn’t answer them all and I’m also sorry we couldn’t directly answer queries specifically on the software during the session.
In conclusion, I think we …
Bet Angel tips – Mass selecting interesting markets
With the football season if full flow, you may find these videos handy.
On Bet Angel you can select markets in two key ways: –
The market selection tool allows you to search ‘nornally’ or with logic commands, or navigate the market tree to find something you are interested in. You can use the quick picks option to ‘pre-populate’ markets you use regularly. There are quite a few ways to get quickly to the market you are interested in, using …
What Betfair traders have forgotten
Back in the ‘good old days’ when gambling meant just backing only, your objective was clear. Back then, excuse the pun, you had to back something that won more often that the odds would suggest.
Participate in these modern markets and you would think that this quaint old fashioned strategy had long since completely died a death. Everybody seems to be doing all manner of things in the market and you could be forgiven for thinking you couldn’t do anything …
Careful with your Europa league research
Looking forward to the slew of Europe league matches this evening. But anecdotally I have to remind myself to be careful with my early round research.
Could have been last year or the year before, but my wife confronted me with some words after she went to use Google and it showed the suggestion ‘Young boys’. Suspicions rose even more when I tried to explain by telling here ‘Young boys come from Wankdorf’, talk about digging yourself in a hole! …
A perfect start to the Champions League
Well that was just a fantastic start to the Champions league group stages! Let’s hope the remaining fixtures bring up a few similar results. It’s easy to use the oft quoted, and often misused, phrase ‘It was a traders dream’, but it was!
Both the Man City and Arsenal games, where there was the bulk of liquidity, ended up in situations where if you backed or laid either team or the draw before the off you could have traded out …
Losers, winners and strike rates
Further to my previous post about strike rates, I thought I add some flesh to the discussion.
At the end of the day people have a variety of different risk profiles. Your tolerance and reaction to risk is predominantly a psychological factor. The good thing is you can learn to overcome any psychological failings. When I was not as experienced as I am now I would often over analyse things and let the market be my master. Now I am …
St Leger Day
The oldest classic horse race in the world is almost upon us again and while it marks the closing of the flat turf season, tradition dictates that it also marks an upturn in financial markets if folklore is to be believed. “Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger day”
There is a general ‘theory’ that during the summer stocks languish and only when everybody is back to their desk does the market perk up. Here …
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