Recent Articles
Flat pack
Looking forward to the return of the flat turf season today with the Lincoln at Doncaster. 22 horses line up to battle out this competitive handicap.
We should rejoice at the return of the flat turf season. It’s return will herald less clashing and generally bigger fields. In the winter it can be a right pain when you have many cards and all the races and are falling all over each other. This will mean you should see better opportunities …
Betfair loses key Australian court case
Racing officials in New South Wales are rejoicing after a years-long challenge to their race fields legislation was this morning thrown out by the High Court.
Read more here – https://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-03-30/racing-nsw-wins-court-battle/3922762/?site=melbourne
Betfair Australasia chief executive Giles Thompson says he respects the court’s decision but says it will reduce the competitiveness of wagering on racing in NSW. “A turnover fee will place extreme pressure on our ability to continue to offer our customers what we believe is the best product in …
Why a lack of fuel is linked to sports trading
On the walk into the office this morning I passed the local petrol station, there were a queue right out into the road. I saw somebody I knew who had driven in from some distance and he revealed a similar story across a wide area. It’s all down the fuss about whether tanker drivers will go on strike. People are scared that fuel may run out if this happens. You can summarise this situation up quite simply, people are acting …
A question of scale (part three)
Click on the text for part one and part two
Curiously for some, it is actually quite easy to work out the maximum upside you can get in any market over time, that’s a definite calculable variable. See my previous blog post ‘profit exists everywhere’. You can also do the same for losses. When you look at those stats, you suddenly realise that the market is capped in either direction. That has advantages and disadvantages.
But the ‘market capped’ thing …
Profit exists everywhere
Somebody asked me the other day which markets have profit in them. Well the answer is that all have profit in them, it’s more a question of where it ends up. But all, have the potential for payoff. There are a couple of other key factors, which I will explain later.
Long before the market really gets going, each market can be split up and broken down in infinite detail. If you know how volatile it is then you can …
Sports Relief – Auction for signed England shirt
Just got back from my local school where two of my children have just done their run for Sports Relief.
Sports relief resonates with me as I’ve always been into sport. But it also strikes a chord because when I finished running competitively for a club, I still wanted to run. So I started to run for charitable causes instead. Keep fit and do something good as well. I ran my last Marathon in London in 1996 and my …
New version of Bet Angel
We’ve made some additions to Bet Angel and made a point release this week. The tweaks are: –
- New Sound Alert automation rule
- New Selection volume / Market volume automation condition
- Betfair charts and Advanced charts can now be synced with the selection shown in any of the ten ladders
- New ladder toolbar contains a button that displays the green-up value across all selections
Additional information is available on the forum. You can download the latest beta at https://www.betangel.com/download/…
UK Government changes remote gambling tax
During his budget speech today George Osbourne has announced plans to change the tax treatment of gambling tax so that it is generated at the point of consumption.
Depending on how it is implemented, this effectively stomps on offshore operators offering services to the UK while avoiding paying UK tax on those profits.
We have yet to see the detail yet, but that’s the breaking news.
3-7
Not very often you see a scoreline like that in a football match.
I’ve been fortunate to be psyhically present to watch top level matches that ended 8-2, 6-2 and 5-5; but 3-7 is a really odd one. So odd I couldn’t really price it if you asked. I’d happily lay at 1000! Total goals are easier to price and I would have offered about 2000 for ten goals last night. Stats aside, there is a nice write up of …
Fraud on client funds again?
WorldSpreads recently entered special administration after the company said in a statement that as at close of business on Friday 16 March, the board of directors believed there was a shortfall of some £13m in clients’ money. I offer my sympathy if you have been affected.
Basically it looks like they have been trading using clients funds, though official information is always a big foggy in these cases. If so, it would not the first time a company has done …
F1 is back – Australian Grand Prix
Well my tickets for Silverstone are already booked and I’m looking forward to the new season.
I don’t tend to do much on Motorsport, but over time I’ve become adept at picking out opportunties on F1. Have a browse of some previous blog posts.
Comments from winter testing and early season practice tend to show you whose cars are competitive and whose are not. Other teams will catch up over the course of the season and rule changes can …
Happy St Patrick’s day
Best wishes to our Irish customers. Whatever you are doing today have a good one.
After the frenzy of Cheltenham we return to earth with a bump today. Lots of racing, but little of note. Use today to adjust yourself back to the melee of lower quality racing. On the football however we have the FA Cup quarter finals, so that looks interesting and will throw up some opportunities. I may dip in out and of those markets.
For main …
Don’t Panic!
This afternoon, for an experiment, I was wired up to a heart rate monitor. It was a test to see how I reacted throughout a busy day and to see what sort of stress I went through. As it turned out it measured a different sort of stress from normal!
The day started as normal and pulled in a couple of OK results. On the approached to race three though something seemed to be going wrong and the response I …
Cheltenham – So nearly a record
Big day today, the iPad three is launched! – LOL – You also have the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Yesterday went much better than I thought. I scoured my notebook from days one and two to give myself the best chance of pulling something out of the hat and did. The markets are very similar to last year in that respect.
I was a bit more aggressive and confident yesterday and that helped a lot. I was also able to read …
Wolverhampton Winners
Two winners at Wolverhampton, one race after another. Have a look at the graphs and see if you can spot the pattern.
Cheltenham day three
Day two of Cheltenham went pretty much to plan.
I did get off to a bad start though, a small profit then a loss of £120 in the second race didn’t put me in the best of moods, but I pulled things around nicely and patched together a string of decent results to end up ahead of last year again. Still short of my best ever, but as I mentioned before, not a surprise.
I am trading both exchanges together …
Cheltenham day two
That was an OK start to Cheltenham. I’d rank it on the better side of the line. OK because I didn’t break any upside records, but OK because I didn’t do so on the downside either!
Volumes waiting to be matched are higher than last year, they are running at around ten times normal week day levels. The rate at which those orders are filling are only six times normal level so there is quite a big gap in the …
Ear plugs for the Cheltenham roar
I’m in a nice relaxed and refreshed mood for the first day of Cheltenham. Last night I used ears plugs so I could be assured of a decent nights sleep. With three children, a decent nights sleep is not always assured.
The first day for Cheltenham is a day of learning for me. Yes I know what I am doing, but I am also really keen to understand what has changed from previous years. We will be gathering data today …
Trading the Gold Cup – Ante post market
I’ve been tracking the Cheltenham Gold Cup ante post market.
Big news today is that Kauto Star is definitely in the race and Grand Crus is headed for the RSA.
We have been tracking top 15 runners and before the announcement they made up 100.2% of the book, after the announcement 100.4%. The big negative was obviously Grand Crus, but Kauto Star only covered half that deficit, with the field making up the rest. Long Run’s odds are unchanged.
In …
Cheltenham by numbers
For those that are not on my mailing list, I prepared and sent out a little peice this weekend called ‘Cheltenham by numbers’. It’s stats based review on the festival.
You can read it by clicking on this link: –
https://www.betangel.com/newsletter/
Nightmare
I have a little diary next to my desk. In it I scribble notes on the markets and what happened and any mitigating circumstances. I also keep a spreadsheet where I track what sort of activity I have been up to.
Both are key pointers for me to look at and to set expectations from. If I look on the spreadsheet and see a really good, or really poor day. I’ll flip to the diary to see what actually happened. …
Europa league matches
Both Manchester teams being in the Europa league has injected a bit of life into the Carling Cup of Europe it seems.
I quite like the look of this evenings matches. The market is forecasting around 21-22 goals this evening. SP Lisbon vs Man City is the pick of the bunch from the 18:00 kick offs. So I am secretly hoping that City score first but struggle to break down their opponents from there on in. Despite my wish, I’ll …
Which match?
I’m looking at three different matches this evening.
First you have Barcelona vs Leverkusen, Barca 1.17 to win and 3-1 up from the away leg, a formality. But there is little incentive for Barcelona to go for and nothing for Leverkusen to lose so an interesting set up. Barca should win easily, but the lack of incentive gives an opportunity for a slip up.
Spurs vs Stevenage is a different kettle of fish (love that phrase). Spurs have a great …
The 49 bets
Here is something interesting. Well I thought it was interesting anyhow, so I thought I would share it.
On Saturday I was working a position into the Liverpool vs Arsenal match. I’ve often maintained there can’t be many big gamblers / traders out there as I rarely see big amounts in the market. OK there are reasons why I may not be able to see them, but even then, I rarely see anything that looks like a bigger player.
In …
Tonights football opportunties
I like the look of the champions league tonight, but I can’t trade it as I’ll be out watching the football instead. I’ve been doing a lot more of that this year and really enjoyed it. What’s life if you can’t enjoy the fruits of your labour?
The Arsenal vs AC Milan really catches my eye because both teams have little to lose. Arsenal wont gain any credibility by defending and will have to have a go. With Van …
Betfair continues squeeze on users
Full management statement here: –
https://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2012/06-03-2012.aspx
Having been an active investor for over 20 years, here is my take on the management statement. Management statements always focus on the positive and you have to read a bit deeper than the headlines.
Core revenues up 11%, but no mention of non core revenues, other than ‘they are in line with expectations’. The games products are no longer working and despite being pushed in-front of all users, which personally I find very …
A question of scale (part two)
In part one we talked about how scale could be an issue in the markets, but how?
If you are betting there is a maximum amount of money that you can bet ‘at value’. Obviously there is little point in betting outside of value, so by default that means it’s impossible to fulfill an unlimited amount at value. It’s also impossible to take all the money on offer and get value, so you realise quickly that there is only a …
How to avoid Betfair API problems
Unfortunately Betfair suffered two more problems on the API yesterday, adding to the number that have occured on a regular basis recently.
This post is a reminder for everybody that Bet Angel can run in an alternative (non API) mode if you experiance an issue. Using this mode can completely save your bacon if there is an API glitch. It’s a feature that pays for itself, even if it’s just in terms of your peace of mind! You must …
Is trading football the new racing?
Horse racing markets are popular with traders because of the large amounts of volatility, but trading football on betting exchanges hasn’t traditionally been seen as a place to get large risk free swings in odds. Things appear to be changing however.
I have recently been conducting some re-reseach on pre-off movements on football. I do this sort of thing on all sports, revisiting previous research. But on conducting the research this time around I noticed a change. The football pre-off …
Creating a profitable strategy (Part one)
Lots of people want to know how to do a winning trade. But very few ask, or think hard enough about how to create an overall postive strategy.
In the context of trying to do something positive over the long term, a trade is just one component of a broader strategy. Trades will win but also lose and therefore it’s the overall strategy where we want to get the balance right rather than getting too focused on each individual position …
Connect
Connect with us on the following social media platforms.