Recent Articles
Should Betfair be more secure?
I’ve put a poll up on whether Betfair should be more secure, read on and vote.
As you may / or not be aware, Betfair suffered a security breach not so long ago but choose not to inform customers after consulting on the risks involved in the breach. Personally I feel, whether there was a risk or not, people should have been informed.
The following was recently pointed out to me in the Betfair terms and conditions under the “limitations …
Poppycock
You wouldn’t think such a widely accepted charity symbol could possibly be a controversial figure, but I am sure that FIFA are determined to make it so. You would think a largely political organisation would be able to successfully brush aside any possible controversy about remembering the sacrifice people make during wars in a calm and reasoned manner before anything controversial came of it. But FIFA appear to have fowled up again on this one.
You can see the logic …
Bet Angel on TV
OK, not as glamorous as it seems, we have just sponsored a few races at Southwell today. I’m not available to attend the event but one of my guys will be there. I’ve offered him a bonus if he streaks in front of the winning post!
Never going to be great quality conditions on a Monday, but we hope we have done our bit for racing today.
Stay caffeinated
With the end of the summer racing I’ve been on my travels recently. I’ve skipped a few days, but on bigger days I’ve still needed to do some work on key markets.
Therein comes the problem of how and where. Whether you are staying with friends or in a hotel you also need to have a back up plan, just in case. My solution is to use coffee as my back up plan.
Where ever you are, there is usually …
The long day…………..
Today we have an interesting session. UK racing trundles on from afternoon to evening racing, then the Breeders Cup meeting comes on line in the US. As the Breeders cup meeting on the Friday draws to a close, we then morph to Australian racing and the final day at the Melbourne cup meeting. The remarkable Black Caviar runs again tomorrow and is a incredible 1.06 to win it’s group one race. I think that’s untradeable, but I am tempted to …
Muddled
It’s a bit difficult to disect European vs English form in the Europa league. But we have some clear clues on at least one match this evening.
Rubin Kazan play a much depleted Spurs side this evening and you would have to favour the Russian side given Harry Redknapp’s preference for player his second string in this competition. With the news that Harry will miss the match due to surgery you get the feeling that following a strategy that relies …
R&R
The Melbourne cup went pretty well and I’m looking forward to finishing off the whole carnival in style if I can. I’ve put a few other things on the back burner this week to focus on the meeting. I’m feeling too old to burn the candle at both ends and get away with it! It was interesting to note that matched bet turnover on the Melbourne cup was lower this year than last. It reached about £3.6m vs. £4.4m last …
My Melbourne
Me and the Melbourne cup go back a few years now. Many moons ago I got interested in the ‘race that stops a nation’ and learned that it really did stop the nation, they have a national holiday today.
So, intrigued, I got up at 4am one dark winter Tuesday to see what all the fuss was about. Nothing really happened apart from a lack of sleep and I returned to bed disappointed. Back then I had converted have the …
Melbourne cup carnival is here
The race that stops a nation isn’t too far away now, but the action really kicks of in Flemington today / tomorrow, depending on where you are in the world.
We have a number of very high profile, rich prize money racing in Melbourne this Saturday, Tuesday, Thursday and next Saturday. It should prove to be a real feast of high quality racing.
From a European perspective there is the issue that most of this takes place in the dead …
Have a break
With a busy week planned for next week I am having a continuing a bit my break this week from all things betting exchange related. I am dipping in and out of the markets but not with any gusto. I am busy on some non betting exchange stuff at the moment, so rather than a half hearted attempt, I felt it better if I tested a few things rather than put in half a full effort. Now we are heading …
Every action..
Requires an equal and opposite reaction… said Issac Newton.
So my attention is drawn to the clash between Aldershot and Man Utd this evening.
Man Utd should win, but the odds are discounting a bit of uncertainty, which is probably a fair reflection of the likely team and how they will play. But can Fergie risk anything less than an emphatic victory? I’m on the look out for a reaction to the stunning result on Sunday. I imagine that will …
United vs City
One of the big matches of the season is up today, the Manchester Derby. I’m really intrigued.
This is the real acid test of who is going to be in the ascendancy over the season. Both have thrown down the gauntlet with very good early season performances and matching each other stride for stride so far. So this match is the first opportunity to throw both in the mix and see what comes out of the melting pot.
You have …
Short priced favourites
I have a tendency to look to lay short priced favourites but this weekend there are two that appear nailed on to win. First up this morning was Black Caviar, 14 wins out of 14 and going for the 15th at just 1.05. A bloodless victory saw her romp home and send her forward to Flemington next where she is likely to encounter more opposition. I think this is the shortest price I have ever seen a horse go off …
Many hands make light work
If you are searching for that elusive edge, have you thought about utilising Bet Angel’s many varied automated features? They say that many hands make light work and it’s true on these markets as well, even if they are virtual hands.
Using the spreadsheet functionality on Bet Angel it’s possible to construct very simple to very complex commands, instructions, tools and scripts to do pretty much whatever you want. You can also use it to test ideas or concepts fully …
Europa league
I’ve had quite a good week on the footy without really trying. That’s nice!
I am experimenting with some new pre-off stuff this week as well. Mixed results so far, but it does seem to be working, just not on the scale I need.
This evening there are loads of matches and as you may know I quite like the double bite of the cherry that is the Europa league. My attention is draw to the highest volume match of …
The champions league gulf
Just had a good look at this evenings matches you can’t help but wonder if UEFA’s coefficient is a bit cocked up. Either than or whether there really is such a massive gulf between the top teams in Europe and everybody else. I suggest the outcomes are driven by commercial incentives in reality.
Barcelona are an amazing 1.05 to beat Plzen this evening. We have Chelsea t 1.12, AC Milan 1.27 and Porto 1.30.
Several uncompetitive prices were offered out …
Manchester 0 Europe 4
Should be an interesting evening of action tonight. Man City should beat Villareal and Man Utd should beat Otgoeoifosadufnoid or whatever they are called. Both teams have no wins so far in this stage of the campaign. Some of the ‘feature’ matches are quite uncompetitive which is disappointing but there is still a lot to play for in individual ties. Some teams will fancy a potential giant killing.
I won’t be trading this evening as I will out watching some …
That’ll do nicely
I had a feeling Saturday would turn out to be an interesting day, so I pulled out all stops to take advantage. I did well and it was a real pleasure to net my best day ever (At least before commission).
I managed to pick up a lot of decent results from a wide spectrum of events on both exchanges. Thanks to favourable commission rates and favourable liquidity conditions on Betdaq, it meant I found it pretty easy to beat …
Good start to a good day
Got up early this morning to give the Caulfield cup a bash and got it just right for a really good result.
We have a ton of really good racing at Ascot today so that should produce some really good potential as well. I am sure everybody will be keen to see Frankel run again and at such short odds you would expect the win to be a formality.
Such short odds in such a big race will mean the …
Whipping up a storm
Only racing can conspire to turn something that was supposed to be a PR win into a PR loss.
Richard Hughes dramatic news last night merely highlights and drives forward what racing will be talking about this weekend. Forgot the wonderful racing at Ascot on Saturday or the fact that Cheltenham is on the cards today. Everybody will be talking about the whip.
Steve at Mull it Over, sort of sums up the mood in racing at the moment. …
Book%
I fielded a question from somebody recently about the book% and what information does that contain?
I’ve seen quite a few theories about what the book% can actually tell you, but here is what it tells me.
At it’s most basic level the book percentage is merely a broad measure of the market. A big number of selections will equate to a big book% and small field a small one. This is due to the spread between back and lay …
Dilemma
It’s just gone 08:30 on Wednesday morning and I’m up over £700 on the day already. On Saturday, I sat down to do a decent days work on the exchanges. Across both I earned somewhere between £3.5-4k which was similar to last year, slightly higher as Betdaq is contributing more than it did in prior years. What’s my point?
As you are probably aware I’ve been doing this for over a decade now, have collected a ton of data and …
Mission impossible
Scotland travel to Spain this evening in an attempt to pull off the biggest shock in Euro qualification history with a win in the world champions back yard. Before we completely dismiss their chances, lets look at the some stats.
The market is pricing in a dominant Spanish performance with Spain coming out winners by at least two goals on average. In the past there have been some big wins in matches like this, but also a few shocks. Overall …
In-running confusion
From today new rules come into play for Jockeys and their use of the whip, new rules must also come into play for in-running punters. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
For example, if a jockey has ‘used up’ all his in-running whip chances before the last fence and is desperate to edge out a close rival. In theory, he will be unable to do anything and this may bring what was a previously short price …
14 out of 14!
Black Caviar was out again at Caulfied this morning and made it 14 starts and 14 wins. Impressive stuff, as was the amount of money backing this undefeated horse. I slept on the sofa for the first part of the night so I could get up in the early hours to have a look at the race. Wouldn’t it be great to see a match up with Frankel? What a race that would be!
Internationals
I had my own international experiance last night when I met up with Howard Hamilton from Soccermetrics. A dedicated group of stats experts huddled in a pub in Fulham to discuss all things football related. Could have done with a quieter pub!
With so many international matches going off at once, or at best close to each other, you may consider using a generic strategy that you can automate. All this can be done in practice mode as well, …
iCons
As you may be aware now Steve Jobs passed away last night.
Whether you agree with everything that key figures have to say or what they do, or whether you feel they were lucky, or not. One thing you should do with people who have trodden a useful path before you, is to learn from them.
Throughout my life I have actively sought to try and work with, meet and learn from people better than me. It’s easy to find …
Mighty oaks from little acorns grow
When my first daughter was born I planted an acorn. Since then it has grown to the proverbial Oak Tree. This year it is 14 years old and yielded its first crop of Acorns.
My point?
When I was in a ‘normal’ job I was always planting metaphoric acorns. My hope was that some would grow to Oaks, and so they did. So I suggest you always keep planting Acorns. Not just in the context of building for the long …
Bet Angel for Betdaq
Somebody emailed me yesterday asking when we will be upgrading the Betdaq version of Betdaq. For those that were not aware, we did this in July; hence this post this morning!
Bet Angel for Betdaq is available free of charge and we were the first vendors to release a Betdaq version of our product way back in 2008. The upgrade in July was the first major upgrade we have done in a while. There are still some differences between products, …
188ft headed goal
One of the things I like about football is it’s randomness. There are predictable elements to it, but goals occur over a wide average and are difficult to pinpoint precisly. This makes it good for certain types of strategies. If you want an example of the unpredictability of goals here is a classic: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15145980
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