Recent Articles
Going up or not?
I feel sorry for QPR fans who have just ‘won’ promotion to the premier league but could yet be scuppered by the FA hearing into irregularities. It’s another example of why value tends to exist at either extreme of the market. People discount something as certain or not far too quickly than chance would and this is where value is often found. My P&L is punctuated with big spikes where value lays or backs eventually return a big one …
Forgone conclusion?
You can’t help but think, like the rest of the community, that the two champions league semi finals are forgone conclusions. I looked at the weekend markets and curiously all teams lost, so no clues in there. But it was possible to start opposing Man Utd after it dawned to me that they may have half an eye on the semi final.
The market is discounting a win by one goal for Barcelona tonight but much depends on whether Real …
So you think
Despite the long weekend I couldn’t help but be tempted to dip in to the Curragh yesterday to take a look at ‘So You Think‘. I’ve seen this horse progress in Australia so my ears pricked up when I heard it was running in Ireland yesterday. It didn’t disappoint and despite it’s short price I managed to get a decent position on it, netting just short of £127. This could be a good summer for the flat season …
Guineas
I had a fantastic result on the Guineas last year, when just about everything fell into place nicely. This year already looks a bit tougher so I can’t assure myself of a similar result, but will try my best to make something happen. The much vaunted ‘Frankel’ is currently trading at 1.59 which should generate a lot of volume today, but whether it does much else is another question! I’ll be reviewing the Guineas trade, amongst others, in my next …
Royal wedding tip
Fontwell 17:30, Current favourite to shorten even further? Why? The favourite is called ‘Royal Wedding’.
My youngest daughter is fastinated by the spectacle, my son said ‘What wedding?’. Have a great day William and Kate!
Farcelona
That was the word on the street after the sending off last night. It seems a common trait to dislike success, but you can’t escape the fact that Barcelona have proved on many occasions that they are by far the best team in the tournament and did so again last night. It’s just such a shame they have often degraded their performances with gamesmanship.
It’s also a shame that the first leg was a duplicate of the other semi final, …
Schalke vs Man Utd review
The market was predicting a low scoring affair but it was obvious, fairly early on, that the match was likely to be anything but. Man Utd’s pace seemed to surprise Schalke and plenty of chances were created.This produced the unusual effect of there being little price decay in the under 2.5 goals market.
Come half time there were plenty of shots but no goals so a back of overs was a natural step. It took a while be eventually there …
Royal wedding bets
Yes, you can punt on the Royal wedding as well!
I doubt this market will interest me much, but I do like the idea of ‘your sex is on fire’ being the first song the couple dance to.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12999090
The national – Part three
And so ends the national series for this year, a decent result on the The Grand national, the Scottish national and the Irish national. Outside of the Irish national there was little of interest for me today, I didn’t like the card and I was proved right, it was a mess. I really should stop doing days that I know I wont enjoy, it makes little material difference to me and to enjoy a day out on a boat …
Racing needs to wake up
Sunny public holiday, lots of people on extended holidays, spirits are high. But racing is struggling to muster up decent fare again.
Today we have a bumper bank holiday card with 8 meetings and 55 races on hand, excluding the Irish racing. But a casual glance down the UK card shows only Warwick with decent fields and out of the remaining 7 UK meetings only 4 races have ten runners or more. Hmmm….
No racing on Good Friday and only …
Gambling millions
Give me five minutes with somebody and I can teach you how to put through enormous sums through a market at relatively little risk, you wont make or lose much, but you will be able to say that you gambled millions that day, an impressive feat; or is it?
I have often been misquoted, especially when it comes to numbers. But one thing that is fairly certain in the modern betting age, is that racking up bets in the millions …
Man Utd to leave it late?
Manchester United have a chance to stretch their lead to nine points at the top against Everton at Old Trafford on Saturday lunchtime. The games are coming thick and fast for United and the signs were there for all to see at Newcastle. United could only manage a goalless draw at St James’ Park and Sir Alex Ferguson will be pleased to return home next. Old Trafford has been an impregnable fortress this campaign with only West Brom returning with …
Probe starts into AW races
On top of rumours of another scandal about to break, the BHA is investigating unusual betting patterns at all weather courses: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/9465233.stm
Dropa del rey
Look at this image. Police men, firemen, bus stopped, everybody rushing to aid the dire situation at hand. Looks nasty, but infact it wasn’t a pedestrian under the wheels of this bus, it was the Copa del rey! For a video of the most entertaining part of this 0-0 draw view the following: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/13155619.stm
Fair weather
Well what a start to spring we have had in the UK! It’s more like the summer at the moment, not that this will impress people in warming climates, but it’s a welcome period after a very cold winter. Having flown away to warmer places in February, it’s been a good start to the year. No seasonal disorder for me this year!
The racing markets have been better in April as well, so the weather on that front is improving. …
Losing it!
A good example of key turning point in a Tennis match recently. Whether you consider the distraction a key point or the reaction to it, It dug under the mood and psyche of the player and triggered off a bad run in the match. Sometimes not all turning points are based on stats or interpretation of them. However, they do help frame your potential risk and reward and that’s why we created Tennis Trader.
https://sports.yahoo.com/tennis/
You can’t take account …
2011
At the start of the year I decided that 2011 will be a different year for me, let me explain.
Last year I pulled out all stops to achieve a few things left on the to do list. I picked last year as it marked a decade since Betfair started and I joined up. There were only a couple of long term things left that I wanted to do and, despite a poor January and December, I managed to achieve …
Grand national – take two
May seem odd to talk about the Grand National a week after it happened, but on Saturday we had the Scottish Grand National. While not as big, well know, or as popular as its bigger cousin it still provides some decent opportunities given the right conditions. Which it had on Saturday.
Gadget show
Just returning from the Gadget show in Birmingham. My kids and I are avid watchers of the show and we tried to go last year. but tickets sold out faster than a quantum computer.
This year we booked the tickets minutes after they were on sale so I carted the whole family up the M40 to Birmingham. I’ve loved gadgets from a very young age and I am still a sucker for something new. I’ve also applied gadgets to my …
Good luck today
If you are running the London marathon today then, I’m jealous! But I’d like to wish you the best of luck and hope you have a really good run. When I last ran it in 1996 the weather was warm like today and it was tough going, so take it easy.
If I can stay injury free for a few years I may try once more, but I’m getting old and decrepit; so it gets less likely each year. Nothings …
One horse race
I was going to write about the FA Cup semi final today as it looks a really tantalising prospect. But the thing that really caught my eye this morning is racing’s continued struggles to adapt to modern commercial realities. The result of which is a race that includes just one runner at the 17:10 at Leicester this afternoon.
https://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/apr/14/one-horse-race-leicester-protest
It’s unfortunate that prize money is under pressure, but in any other commercial regime you would simply incur less cost to …
Snooker loopy
Although we rarely do much on snooker, in the outright markets the same rules as normal apply. Find a couple of guys at longish odds who, while they might not win, are likely to do well in the first couple of rounds and back-to-lay their championship odds. If we can plot the likely winners at each stage of the draw, there are profits to be made by trading in and trading out before the next round starts.
Current World Champ …
Schwing
A really good day for swing traders and a generally good day to boot. Plenty of races, plenty of opportunties whatever your style; but the thing that stood out today were some big swings. Hope you had a good one.
Nothing’s impossible
That has to be the message that Harry Redknapp will send to his team this evening. But just what chance does he have?
When you can lay Real Madrid at 1.02 to qualify, so the market thinks Harry has less than a 2% chance. But memories are still fresh for me with that remarkable run Middlesbrough had in the UEFA cup a few years ago.
Spurs are priced at 3.35 for a win, the match is only priced for …
Cat and mouse
I’m expecting a game of cat and mouse tonight at Old Trafford, both teams would like to score but both have very strong incentives not to concede. This is the only match that holds any great interest in the remaining quarter finals, the others are formalities it would seem. I’ll put some energy into this match this evening but I’ll be planning on doing something else tomorrow.
Man Utd vs. Chelsea is priced at 2.40 goals with a 0.25 goal …
Record day
Phew, what a weekend that was!
We are now entering peak season for all things sports related and this weekend was a good warm up for the months ahead. It also set a new bench mark for me as the Saturday just gone turned out to be my best ever day on Betfair! Whether I can ever beat such a storming weekend is another question. When you have been going for as long as me, you need a little luck …
A Grand day out
Last year’s Grand National will be remembered for Tony McCoy finally winning his first race with Don’t Push It. The pair are ready for battle again this year and the biggest race of the year offers a great chance for traders to profit at Aintree.
Most of what we do means we’ve normally settled up before the race, but that’s not to say there are no opportunities mid-race. We’ve had a look at a few horses in the running tomorrow …
US Masters – The cut
It’s been an excellent Masters so far and the big mover before the cut was Jason Day who was trading at 300’s yesterday and has come into 16’s. Fortunately, I had some money on Day at 240’s, so that’s really made up the numbers at the cut. Tiger looks menacing so I have taken profits on positions and will re-appraise during the third day. I have plenty of profit to play with now. If I can’t see any new opportunities …
Tiring weekend ahead
First day of Aintree is now behind me and I can take that knowledge forward to today. I had a difficult start yesterday but ended up doing OK on the day overall in the end. I think I could have done better, but lets see what today brings. If you remember Cheltenham, you will be pleased to know that the Betdaq markets are working well at Aintree also, so bear than in mind today if you are finding the going …
Master-mind a trading winner
I actually think Phil Mickelson should be backed for the Masters, even at around 13/2, but such a short price doesn’t give us much room for manouvre in the trading stakes.
Ideally, we want higher priced players who will be in with a shout, make the cut and allow us to trade out on the Saturday.
We’ve already identified a Vijay Singh as an outsider with good course form and recent form, but there are a few others with the …
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