Recent Articles
Pub landlady wins EU case
Venues showing live Premier League matches from foreign broadcasters are not breaking EU law, court advised.
Full story here: –
https://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/feb/03/eu-law-sports-rights
This could make a big change in the financing of the premier league.
Twitter feed
In case you were not aware we do have a twitter feed. You can view it at: –
We have played around with it on and off for some time, just putting in thoughts and notes as they occur. You can see the current tweets there at the moment which will have been useful for you. If there is enough interest we will continue doing so.
Ouch!
You have to feel sorry for money chasers sometimes. On Sunday we saw one of those ‘classic’ horse racing moments when a horse, that traded at 1.09 before the off, fell at the first hurdle at Fakenham.
That said, I don’t feel that sorry for money chasers as when I see something at short odds I instinctively try to oppose it. Low downside and high upside is just too tempting to resist. Therefore I will always look for an opportunity …
Betfair maintenance
Unfortunately it looks like this Betfair ‘maintenance’ did not go well and the API is not working as expected. Numerous other issues have been occuring since the site came back. With Ludlow cancelled this is is a clear indication that today will be an inactive day. A frustrating end to the month.
If you still want to log into Betfair, the API is currently reported as being down. But if you are using the very latest version of Bet Angel, …
Extra rest will help Djokovic
Andy Murray booked his place in a second successive Australian Open final following his four set victory over David Ferrer.
While Murray has looked solid throughout the tournament, the outstanding Novak Djokovic stands in the way of the Scot’s Grand Slam dream having beaten Roger Federer in the other semi-final. The Serbian is chasing his second Aussie Open title and has had an extra days rest before Sunday’s showdown.
The head-to-head record stands at 4-3 in Djokovic’s favour, although Murray …
NH Racing
OK I know that the NH stands for national hunt, but it may as well mean No Horse Racing. If Racing wants to know why its industry is in decline take a hard look at today.
Another big race meeting is lost to weather. Some low quality and small fields at Lingfield which are of little interest. Those races go off five minutes before Cheltenham so little time to build up to the big races, then Cheltenham clashes …
Murray match in charts
If you want an insight into how odds move in a Tennis match we will be posting up charts at key points of the Ferrer vs Murray Austrailian open semi final today.
To view the charts, click here to read the thread on the forum.
Press the flesh
A half day for me today on the trading front as I went to Earls Court to ‘press the flesh’ at a gaming and betting exhibition. I’ll often go to these events as, while they are mainly trade, there are a lot people that I know there. It’s also interesting to see what’s out there and to catch up with a few people.
One surprise was to see several “Soccer Mystic / Tennis trader” type products there from software vendors …
Fireworks in Melbourne
Happy Australia day to our antipodean users this morning!
Some decent late night / early morning activity in Melbourne this morning as an injured Nadal struggles to fight of Ferrer in his quarter final match. This could be a significant moment in the tournament, so tune in immediately to take advantage if you can. When the Australia day fireworks force a break in this game the trainer can treat Nadal and that could be a pivotal moment.
Pool lined with gold
What a season Blackpool are having and the tactic when the tangerines are playing is really simple. If they are at large odds at home, back them.
This may sound obvious but if you want to understand the full subtly of this tactic then fire up Soccer Mystic point it to any match where a team is large odds at home and look at what happens to the projected odds in the first half.
You wouldn’t have needed to do …
2010
Already near the end of January and I realise I haven’t talked about what happened last year.
2010 was very satisfactory and I evolved further during the year. Each year that passes I learn more and more how the markets work and why they are priced the way they are. I think this is the thing that I enjoy most, the discovery. Whatever I am doing, I will often have a pen and paper handy in case some amazing thought …
Will Bent leave it late again?
Gerard Houllier will be praying that capturing Darren Bent will help Aston Villa turn a corner on what has been an incredibly disappointing season to date.
Bent left Wearside with an impressive scoring record after bagging 32 league goals in his 58 appearances – which is why Steve Bruce was so upset to see his main striker depart. Even though many football fans will recall Bent’s time at White Hart Lane as a failure, he still managed to score 25 …
Kauto can’t
Last week I asked if Kauto can, but it seems he can’t. With no racing of note on today I thought I’d review this race for you.
The 11 year old isn’t the same horse as previous years, no surprise there. But it was disappointing to not have another historic moment in racing. There haven’t been many over the last year and it’s nice to hang a news story on these things. I think racing has missed out as a …
Overnight success
How would you like to go to bed only to wake up in the morning to a successful trade?
While I’m enjoying doing the Austrailian open, a lot of the early round matches take place at hours I just can’t cover. Judging by the liquidity, this is the case for a lot of people in this market. So, why not take a different angle on things and place some trades to get matched overnight in-play?
Using Tennis trader, I …
Levy debate starts in parliament
Three hours of debate has just started in Parliament about the future of the Horse Racing levy. Tune into BBC Parliament to hear the MP’s debate: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/tv/bbc_parliament/watchlive
Betfair crash
Quite a serious outage this evening, or outrage as some will nickname it. The site has been offline for nearly two hours now. We hope you are not too badly affected by the crash.
We do have some clever things built into Bet Angel such as connection modes that can help during certain types of crash, but this seems to be a complete outage on Betfair’s behalf. We look forward to learning what the cause was.
Bookmakers still alive and well
William Hill came out with a year end statement today and the headline results were pretty good. Net revenue is expected to come in up 7% on the year delivering EBITDA of around £275m up from £258m in the prior year. Online revenue has grown 24% with sportsbook turnover up 57%.
One other note from the statement was that 47% of scheduled UK racing meetings were cancelled in December.
Full results will be out in late February. It seems traditional …
Aussie open tennis
Looking forward to getting stuck into the Tennis this morning. I’ve had a delayed start to the Open as I was unable to do anything on the first day due to other commitments. Plenty of opportunity abounds in the tournament. The good thing about this grand slam is that you can trade it first thing in the morning, leaving the rest of the day for other sports.
It was this time last year that I used the Aussie Open for …
Adopt Arsenal business model
If you remember this post where I was commenting on how impressed I was with Arsenal’s business model. Well it seems FIFA is as well.
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/9358589.stm
I think, for the long term future of the game, it makes sense to engage on sensible terms.
I remember when I was young. I would pay £1.50 to stand on the terraces, stuffing my face with a hot dog, getting smoke wafted in my face, BUT you really could believe that your team …
O’Neill new manager of West Ham?
BBC report O’Neill to take over at West Ham after the match today: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/w/west_ham_utd/9362709.stm
Lay West Ham to be relegated I reckon, if its true.
Can Kauto?
Easy to spot the key interest today on the horse racing front when Kauto Star will try to make history at Kempton park. Such is the interest in this and the sentiment I suspect his price will shorten through the day so for once I am on early on this. It should be an interesting market and an interesting race, so I hope it turns out that way.
Betfair widen cross matching net
Today will see the launch of cross matching on pre-off horse racing markets. Having studied the markets for a long, long, time, I think I can guess the impact that this will have, but I am open minded. Change will occur though, so keep your eyes out.
In-play cross matching produced a curiosity which we hadn’t thought of, so it may be that pre-off does as well. We have collated data over very long time frames and can see at …
Backing a definite loser to win
Bizarre start to the racing at Huntingdon. Nine out of eleven horses took the wrong course, the chase instead of the hurdle course. The end result is that all horses on the chase course were disqualified. One jockey went back to complete the correct course though and netted third place. So only three out of the starting line up qualified as finishers.
You could still back the real winner for large odds as he approached the line and it seemed …
Normal service resumed..
It’s been a good few days on the horses. Excellent when compared to the period we have just had to endure. It’s so much better having something to get stuck into each day rather than the intermittent and erratic markets we recently had. Plenty of markets can give you a bit more confidence and allow you to average out any mistakes you make on the day. Lack of them only exacerbates the pressure to perform and that can be counter …
Late goals expected in FA Cup
Manchester United and Liverpool commence battle on Sunday afternoon in the tie of the FA Cup third round. If the match earlier in the season is anything to go by this could well be a Cup classic. From a pure betting standpoint Liverpool’s away form this season gives plenty of reason to back a home win. Roy Hodgson’s men have won only once away from Anfield in the league and have lost six of their nine games.
However, traders might …
Sack race
A rather predictable scenario if you ask me. At least three managers in the firing line and you could add Holliuer to the mix as well, despite getting the ‘backing’ of his board. If we do get a flurry of sackings it could provide a useful mid-season trading opportunity. I’m keeping my eyes open.
Good start to Tennis season
In preparation for the Aussie open Tennis later this month I have been warming up on the Qatar open this week.
Best of three tournaments mean that the swings you can get can be very large and quick. If a heavy odds on favourite slips up or stutters, the response in the market will often be significant.
One of my favourite tactics, that I detailed here, is to lay a very short priced favourite in the hope that they …
December
It is quite easy to guess how December went.
With all the weather disruption only a minor miracle could get me near last years December. That didn’t happen and it felt like December could be a write off at one point. But a few decent days near the end of the month salvaged something out of the month but it was still over 50% down on the prior year. Last year did go exceptionally well though, so that decline masks …
Happy New Year
Just a short note to wish you a happy new year. I hope 2011 brings you all the things you hope for!
At last…
Yesterday saw the first decent sporting action since 1492 or something. Anyhow, it’s seems an age since we had a day where there was lots going on.
I tucked into the racing and footy yesterday and had a good day and I am hoping for a repeat today. Fog seems to be the main problem now, not snow and ice. Let’s hope things keep moving along so we can at least have a decent end to the year. Good luck …
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