Recent Articles
Predicting a draw
Before I start, my ratings on the champions league this week were almost spot on. Thanks to the standard deviation of these things, its quite rare to hit the nail on the head. But the large number of matches did help quite a bit in hitting the bullseye this week. So it’s been an excellent week on the footy, I’ve got some money to give back now!
I was interested to see some discussion on predicting a draw bumping around …
Four years ago
It was back in 2006 on this Friday and Saturday that I attended the World Money Show with Betfair.
It was a tough thing to do, as all around us we had all sorts of sexy stands and products owned by very slick and well funded financial types. The first problem was getting people to come to the stand, I remember arguing with a Forex trader who was critical of Betfair’s presence at the show. I tried to explain that …
Ryder Cup winner already settled
Another great publicity stunt by Paddy Power who have already settled Europe as the 2010 Ryder Cup winners.
https://blog.paddypower.com/blog/index.php/2010/09/27/europe-win-the-ryder-cup-we-reckon/
They would have already known their liability so it’s effectively booked as a marketing expense. Of course they will get loads of publicity on it, such as people like me posting it on their blog! This is also something that Betfair would find difficult to do. Very imaginative folks over at PP.
European football ratings
I’ve often posted up ratings so thought I would explain something about them. My ratings come for many years of research and are designed to shape the way I will participate in a match. People who have attended talks I have done about football, would probably get most value from them to be honest. Over time I’ve managed to get ratings accurate to a fraction of a percent over the course of a season. But it’s important to understand that, …
Ryder cup preview
If you are looking for an authoritative preview for this high profile event look no further than GX Magazine this month.
I’ve written a six page peice for the magazine which includes some indepth analysis of the tournament and players. Looking at the weather forecast this morning, it looks like it will be an event that won’t favour fair weather golfers, so that should make things interesting this week. Make sure you take this into account as we approach the …
Betfair 1/3 for float failure
Credit to the forum poster who found this on the Internet but it’s either a wonderful peice of PR or people are actually betting against the float being a success. An interesting read anyhow. Until I see the price and / or the offer document it’s difficult to make a true judgement as to whether it’s too expensive or not.
Spain will win
While browsing the other night I found this really interesting peice: –
https://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/1008/predicting-football-1008.cfm
It’s quite rare to find some decent stuff on the Internet. It’s amazing how many experts are out there, despite there actually being very few people who can claim to be true experts. My definition, somebody who is willing to back up their rhetoric with hard cash!
Anyhow, this is an interesting peice and would have made an even better read before the world cup!
Cockchafer!
A year to the day that Epsom had to abandoned some races because of the larvae of the cockchafer, it’s happened again. My lawn suffers from these and they eat the roots of growing plants, including grass. I guess Epsom need to do some pest control if it’s happened two years in a row.
2011 UK Racing fixtures released
And to be honest, after all the rhetoric, it looks better than I expected.
There is a nice summary on the BBC website: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/9029038.stm
Levy row heats up
Lots of rhetoric coming from the big bookmakers about the levy and trying to blame it’s decline on betting exchanges. Perhaps they are forgetting that most of them have moved a lot of their operations offshore to avoid paying the levy. This has obviously had a significant impact on levy funding and unless that is addressed immediately, it looks a little foolish of them to point the finger elsewhere, after all the first bookmaker to go offshore did so in …
Liverpool loan deal falls through
These are troubling times for Liverpool….
Liverpool Football Club’s financial turmoil took another turn for the worse after it was reported that the asset management and financial services company Blackstone Group had backed out of a deal with Liverpool co-owner Tom Hicks.
It was widely reported earlier in the week that GSO Capital Partners, a subsidiary of Blackstone, was close to finalising a two-year US$437 million loan with the Liverpool owner, which would’ve allowed Hicks to repay US$370 million owed …
Too hard
There are many thousands of markets that will come under your eyes each year. So which ones should you do? The hard ones or the easy ones. Not a difficult question is it? So why do so many people pick situations that are likely to fall into the too hard category? I’ll explain on another post, but before that, let me explain how I approach each opportunity.
When I approach a market, I will label it easy, not sure or …
Betfair flotation WILL go ahead
Read full details here: –
https://corporate.betfair.com/investors.asp
As an active private investor I’ve been valuing companies for years. When a company IPO’s to fund expansion this is usually seen as a good sign, raising low cost captial to expand. When a company IPO’s to acquire, there is some risk but the rationale can be justified. The final type of IPO is an exit strategy, a chance for shareholders to cash in at the highest price and to sell some of their …
A bit of a eureka moment..
For some time I’ve been working on a modelling spreadsheet. On and off I’ve dabbled with it for a few years when time permitted. The aim is to produce a better tool for forecasting value. Predicting the future is always tough and I’ve been searching for a solution to a complicated forecasting problem. I’ve got close, but not enough for a clear ‘victory’.
Sat in bed on Saturday evening with my iPad, I was getting a bit bored of the …
Busy, busy, busy..
With the end of the turf evening racing you would think things would have quietened up a bit. But no, first the US Open Tennis and then this week loads and loads of football. I’m expecting this month to be a little quieter than late, but I did surprise myself last week with my second biggest one day total of the year.
Both the Champions league and Europa league are quite nice markets to get involved in. Plenty of different …
My wife knows everything
One of the best joke commentaries I’ve seen in horse racing, apart from it’s actually a real race! You have to watch this race to believe it: –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEF60avsloY
Well done Nadal
Well done to Rafa Nadal who completed a career grand slam this morning, UK time, at the US Open. He looked good value for the win, though I only stayed up till 11pm to watch it, but at that point the rain stopped play. I looked at the recording and spreadsheet data this morning for the part I missed. It didn’t appear to restart till 1am this morning.
It’s been a good trading tournament and I took forward my Wimbledon …
Lucky unluckiness
Was really looking forward to watching the US open final Tennis on Sunday when………….. boom! All the power goes in the house.
I think SSE have done a bad job on the electrics around here as once a year the same thing happens. I knew what would be coming next, a few hours later a van would arrive dig up the road and replace the underground cabling. After chasing for a few hours I got a positive answer that this …
Don’t come back till St Leger day
Today we can all buy shares again thanks to the oldest classic horse race in the world. There is this ‘theory’ that during the summer stocks languish and only when everybody is back to their desk does the market perk up. Here is one link, from many, that discuss this: –
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing/article.html?in_article_id=484982&in_page_id=166
I’ve never managed to pull anything spectacular out of hte St Leger for some reason and the Doncaster meeting seems to have been particulary tough this week. Let’s …
Trading Tennis
The US open has provided some excellent trading opportunities so far and there are probably many more to come as we reach the more competitive stages of the tournament. Tonight the Wawrinka v Youzhny match looks particularly interesting, especially with the way Wawrinka has been playing.
If you get the right set up, trading a service game is a particularly good strategy. With Tennis Trader you will also know what chance the server has of winning the game and your …
European Court rejects gambling restrictions
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11234128
The European Court of Justice (ECJ) said German laws that protect state monopolies for gambling were “unjustifiable”.
The ruling could open the way for foreign betting companies to establish a presence in Germany.
John Higgins cleared of match-fixing
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/snooker/8973869.stm
It increasingly looks to me like newspapers are trying to get stories out of sportsmen by setting them up to talk about match fixing. Despite the fact Higgins never did fix anything, it did a lot of damage to him and snooker. His guilt it appears, is not to report the incident.
I suppose the decent thing to come out of this is that sports men and women will be very nervous about meeting strangers or even contemplating meeting …
Laying on the sand
Today sees the annual return of the races on the beach at Laytown. When my work on the markets is complete I will definately visit this race course along with many others that I have on the list. I keep saying that ‘next year’ I will do Laytown, so I look forward to saying the same next year! In the meantime I’ll be looking to do a bit of laying at laytown.
Just goes to show
It aint over till the fat lady sings as they say. Trading the Murray v Wawrinka match well this evening and managed to lay some off some of the profit on Murray at very short odds, looking for a Wawrinka fight back. I got one and Murray really let his head drop when broken twice in the third set. He really looked on his way out of the third set and possibly the match. Murray called on the trainer during …
Automated trading
Early on in the development of Bet Angel I decided we should be able to link to a spreadsheet. Doing this meant that I & other Bet Angel users could experiment to their hearts content, create new views of the market or new trading tools using the spreadsheet. Since the first primitive implementation we have worked hard to add additional features so if you haven’t used it recently give it a try
There are many useful things you can use …
August
August turned out to be an interesting month.
I wasn’t sure what to expect, coming into it off the back of a record month, so I set my much expectations lower. It turned out to be a pretty good month anyhow and I was just short of my third best month of the year. I now tend to glance at prior years to figure what I should achieve and I was more or less on target based on years prior. …
Fun in the sun
It’s hot in New York at the moment and that’s thrown up some decent markets in the US Open. Nobody seems sacred in the heat and several contenders are already out, but Murray put in a good performance.
I’ve traded the US Open a lot more this year, mainly thanks to being able to ultilise Tennis Trader. For some time I’ve wanted to trade Tennis more often, so it was an important tool to have before I could trade …
Impossible?
When I was young I was constantly reminded how some things were just impossible. I had many dreams, but a difficult start in life meant they were very very distant. I also had no mentor, guide or path on how to achieve the things I so dearly wanted to. This was going to be hard work. I saw my father suffer at the hands of fate at a young age and this was a pivitol moment. It could have reinforced …
Blackberry picking
Went out with the children this weekend to gather berries. At this time of year mother nature provides a feast right on your doorstep and it’s missed by many people. We gathered a whole variety of fruit from local ‘common’ areas, popped them in boxes, took them home and made some pies and crumbles. It’s something I’ve done as long as I can remember.
While advising the children which fruits to pick I realised that it’s not unlike participating in …
Arrest over test cricket ‘betting scam’
Another story in the press this morning about another alleged betting scam.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-11122388
The News of World appear to really savour these stories, perhaps will a little too much vigour? But there is no doubt that sport should be played for the right reasons and any corruption should definitely be rooted out. If you are in any doubt as to why gambling has a sullied reputation, its stories like these that produce it. Let’s hope that publicity like this will …
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