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Open golf day two
Here is the list of my best backs from the open. Oosthuzien is the best having crashed in from 490 to just 14’s this morning. This means for my ‘massive’ £4.25 stake I can green up for near on £150 on just Oosthuizen. Daly touched teens early on as well. Three of these bets are on the top ten ‘odds leaderboard’ so its been a cracking start. Would have been even better if some of the shorter prices had blown …
The Open golf championship
If you want a clue as to how to trade this event, just have a look at the weather forecast for a massive clue. Changed course, competitive tournament, poor weather ahead of the cut.
I notice that after nearly winning it last year Tom Watson is priced at 300’s for something similar this year. I don’t think that is realistic, he was 1000 last year. Stewart Cink is 150, he was 800’s last year. Justin Rose is priced to be …
Occam’s razor
In case you are not familiar with this concept here is a link to the Wiki page: –
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor
Basically, most things are best explained in simple terms and explanations with much more detailed thought or rationale behind them turn out to be much less effective in explaining or moving forward a concept. I only learnt of Occam’s razor while watching a science documentary one night but it my experience Occam was right. If you can’t explain something works in …
It’s over
Last night finally saw the World Cup end.
It’s been a great couple of months but I’m exhausted, so I am personally glad to see the end of this busy period. It’s really great having such opportunities, but it’s impossible to work flat out like this for any length of time. Time for some recuperation and hindsight. It has been very rewarding though, with last week bringing in my second biggest week ever.
I’ve also gathered lots of data to …
Going Dutch
This isn’t a pick! I think the Spanish have done a good job so far tactically and may test the Dutch defence in a way it hasn’t been tested so far this World Cup. This is a reference to what I will be aiming to do this afternoon. I have Dutchand German friends just round the corner from where I live, but as the German’s didn’t get to the final I will be going Dutch for the final. As I …
The world cup effect?
We noticed recently that the racing markets have picked up a bit recently. So I thought I would look to see if volume had been affected by Wimbledon and the World Cup. I picked a day when England were playing and looked to see if volumes had dropped.
You can see the gap on the graph, but this was mainly caused by the first race not reaching the same volume as the last race, last year. If you adjust the …
Newmarket July meeting
I’ve never really put this one in the diary as a meeting that exhibits great characteristics but this year it feels different and is much more positive. Don’t get me wrong its a much better than average meeting, it’s just never stood out in previous years. It’s been a good start to July, so I am hoping the last day of the meeting will bring further rewards. Typically the last day is the best.
Small fields
If I had a small field in as my garden I would be happy. But a small field when trading is not such a happy occurrence. Look at today’s card and there are seven meetings but only 5 races have field sizes in double figures!
Straight off this tells me what sort of day this is going to be, trickier than usual. But its alarming that none of these courses can seemingly cobble together a decent field. No doubt there …
7/7
Was having a shower this morning when my wife reminded me of the significance of the date. It’s amazing how events can quickly slip into the past and we should all be reminded of those events, lest we forget.
I was in town this morning and did a little piece for CNBC. So far I haven’t had enough time with them to show them the wider world of modern betting markets, but I am sure it will come! I hope …
Germany vs Spain
The market is priced for 2.40 goals or thereabouts with a 1.20 goals to Spain. The Germans have stormed through to the semi final whereas the Spanish appear to have ground out results but both teams slipped up in the group stages.
Some interesting notes I’ve copied from elsewhere: –
- Victory at Euro 2008 was only Spain’s second win in eight competitive games against the Germans.
- Germany are unbeaten in three previous World Cup games against the Spanish.
- Overall, the
Uruguay vs Netherlands
I think you would have to fancy the Netherlands in this match, which the market is doing by one goal. But it is also pricing in very few goals, just short of 2.30. So the market summarises this as a tight match with the Dutch should win.
I would secretly like a Germany / Netherlands final as it would add some serious spice to the mix, but I suspect Uruguay will feel they have an equal chance. A lot rests …
My lucky day
Nothing lucky about the result which was fine, but it was more the manner in which it was achieved. Often you can wade into a market and everything goes wrong. Nothing works the way it ‘should’ and bad postions get worse and so do good ones. Yesterday was unusual, in that I forcast a poor day but I didn’t really get any significant negatives yesterday. It just seemed that when I got myself into a hole, it quickly offered me …
No pleasure
OK, so I got the Netherlands win right, Murray’s defeat at Wimbledon and Forlan scoring with Uruguay qualifying for the semis. But other than the Netherlands win, the other two were a little bitter. A couple of cruicial points would have seen the Murray match take a different complexion and a long overdue UK mens finalist at Wimbledon. As for Ghana’s defeat, it would have been nice to see a win rather than that last minute ‘cheating’ drama. I am …
Reaching a climax
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the …
June
June was fine, nothing amazing but better than last year. Had some difficult patches, some highlights, but it just sort of happened without anything stunning happening in either direction. I just ground out a result each day.
The whole month got a shot in the arm with the World Cup and Wimbledon, both of which were welcome additions to what was often pretty poor racing. I put some renewed focus into these areas this month. The launch of Tennis trader…
More about penalties
Following the recent chatter on penalties, I note the absence of them so far! Somebody posted on the forum about a very useful tool that you can use.
I didn’t know this existed, so thanks to the poster for finding it. It confirms what I was talking about, but more importantly it could prove very useful if a match goes to penalties. This is because it allows you to examine all previous results from the penalty takers and …
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having …
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when …
The maths behind penalities – Part One
Groups stages, tight games, can’t afford to lose, Germany, England. This must only add up to one thing, penalties!
Are we going to suffer again, will there be the same agony as in prior years? Penalties is another area I have looked at and I think the findings may be of use to any prospective England goalkeeper facing a penalty, football traders may also benefit.
First off, you can reach some easy conclusions. From spot to net, the ball will …
Opportunities
Opportunities are everywhere if you keep your eyes open. I feel I should always be constantly prodding the market to see if I can find new ones. Wimbledon this week has thrown up many, many opportunities but the pleasing thing is that I have found loads of new ones.
When the Isner/Mahut match was drawn at 59-59 I knew I had to do some work to find a way of profiting from the resumption. I’d fiddled around the edges on …
Just incredible
If you read this blog post in time turn your TV / Internet stream to Wimbledon to witness one of the most amazing matches ever in Tennis History. Mahut vs Isner, will it ever end?!?!
That match
Given the gloom and doom I am almost tempted to back England this evening. But much of that depends on price and what the team looks like when it is announced. The match is priced for 2.56 goals with a 1.60 advantage to England, yeah right! England just haven’t looked a potent threat upfront and I think it’s optimistic to imagine a free flowing high scoring game, lets hope I am wrong!
If you look at the world cup so …
What a start!
Wimbledon got off to an amazing start with a near shock elinimation of Federer. In the last ten years there have been lots of seeds falling early, but never the top seed. Reading from the year 2000 we had ranked players going out in the first round as follows. 7,16,9,2,12,11,6,22,4 and 17. Basically, anything is worth a lay. OK the odds at the off are probably an accurate representation of true chance of winning, but from there anything can happen …
Announcing – Tennis Trader
While there are no English men in the Wimbledon for the fist time in history this year, there will be plenty of traders.
This year you will be able to trade it with complete confidence thanks to a new tool we have created for you, Tennis trader. Whether you are a experienced Tennis trader or not, this unique tool will transform your ability to trade Tennis matches.
The problem with trading any sport is guessing how the odds are likely …
Crianza
I’ve had a few beers on Crianza this evening after it romped home at Redcar today. Nothing remarkable about a horse winning a race, but Crianza came in at odds of 1000 and I had money on.
It’s the second time I have managed this, the last time was on Bermondsey Bob at Salisbury in August 2008. Therefore I assume the mean return time of this sort of thing happening is around once every two years. The funny thing …
Not a joke
Honestly, not a joke; but this is the book I am reading at the moment just before I go to bed. It’s actually a really good read and highly recommended for sports traders!
1.05 about to be turned over?
Should England pack up and come home? Traded at 1.05 to qualify last night must have those backers quivering. After failing to beat Algeria, which most teams in the English football league could surely achieve, has there ever been a more defining moment in English national football?
For many, many years we have had loads of great individuals but seemingly no team. Last night showed this up in clear light again and surely the time has come to stop picking …
England’s fate already known
When England step out onto the pitch this evening they will know what they need to do. If the USA get a good result against Slovenia, then England really need to dispatch Algeria with confidence. If not it all goes to the last game. I say this because the English will probably want to avoid the impressive Germans. No point in holding out for a draw in the knockout phase is there?
The US are priced at 2.20 goals against …
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