Recent Articles
How much!
It was interesting to read this article today which details just how much money each premiership club collects each year.
It’s amazing to think that any club could go into administration with so much money being dished out each year. Couple this with parachute payments and it seems that the premier league is clearly set to pull away from the old football league in terms of development. There is an interesting graphic here that clearly illustrates the amount of the …
Monaco grand prix
I don’t do much on the Formula one unless a clear cut opportunity exists but here is a post from last year that should help you on the Monaco grand prix. Click here to view it.
I was thinking of going to the Monaco grand prix this year but expensive is not the word to use to describe the cost to do it in style. Maybe next year!
FA Cup Final
A curious one this year. Chelsea are on for the double and will surely try their best to get it. Pompey have performed miracles to get the final and wont want to lose it. Chelsea are at a very short price so I’d be nervous mopping up at that price.
Curiously we have profiled this match and it has come out very similar to the Chelsea vs Stoke match on the 25/4/10. Of course Chelsea won this 7-0! All similar …
Sticky wicket
Not a reference to the English cricket team, but well done lads on getting to the final. I must admit to not knowing enough about Cricket to trade it effectively, but I may have a look in on the 20/20 final. It has all the characteristics to be a decent trading market, so I may have a stab. Uncertainty is great for trading and the final promises plenty.
Sometimes when I am trading I feel I am batting on a …
Europa league final
Who would put it past Fulham to end the season in glory tonight? Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus and Hamburg have all been beaten by Fulham en route to the final, with just Atletico Madrid now standing in their way.
The match itself is priced for a low scoring affair with a slight edge to Athletico. The market is pricing in a paltry 2.40 goals, which means the draw should be a likely result for 90mins. I predict if you played this …
Gamble landed
Not often you will hear me saying that, but when a Barney Curley horse is out and being gambled, you just have to sit up and take notice. Rather than an outright gamble though, it always worth having a go on the trading front. It can be a bit volatile, but it’s often quite clear where the money is going on a Curley horse. Yesterday we saw several horses traded at decent volume from big to much smaller prices. “Agapanthus” …
Would you back the draw at 1.30?
If a football match was near the end, perhaps ten or fifteen minutes or so, 1.28 may represent value. But before the match has started, no way! Mathematically speaking it’s highly improbable for the draw to be priced at 80% certainty in a fair match. However these strange odds seem to occur often at the end of the Italian football season. Not all of them play out as the odds intend but it’s certainly very strange to keep seeing such …
April
OK I am a bit late summarising, but it’s been a busy start to May. April was a surprise for me as it turned out to be my fifth best month ever and I pulled in a very high strike rate, which was unexpected. So far this year I am running at double my total of a couple of years ago, there are many reasons for this. However, on a like for like basis, I think I had the wind …
No overall majority
Never was such a word so true. The UK election this morning brought out a true hung parliament where only a coalition amongst truly minor parties can bring a majority government. Not an ideal scenario for a country facing some tough policy decisions. We could have the prospect of a minority of votes electing the government, I think that wouldn’t be acceptable to the populace. It’s going to be an interesting few days.
Anyhow, one of the most active markets …
The battle for fourth place
While most eyes were firmly focused on Man City vs Spurs last night, a remarkable battle was taking place 200 miles further north for the same place in the Scottish Premiership. Unlike the English battle, which ensured ‘arry team has broken into the previously exclusive top four, the battle in Scotland was for Europa cup place and infinity more exciting and in fact totally remarkable.
UK users can watch the highlights here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/scot_prem/8658858.stm
The match ended 6-6 and that …
A bit fishy…
Went through my normal routine this morning. The last bit is to nip into the Garden and top up the bird feeders and feed the fish. Big problem this morning was that there were no fish in the pond, all 23 were gone!
At first I thought it was a Heron or something, but it seemed unusual that it could gobble all 23 so efficiently. The resident frogs were also missing, so any Heron probably wouldn’t have been able to …
Two horse race
So the premiership has narrowed to a two horse race to the line. Chelsea meet Liverpool and Wigan, while Man Utd mean Sunderland and Stoke. On the face of it Chelsea’s 1 point advantage looks tight but when I ran through all the possible combinations and, on average, the one point advantage should be enough to win it. Of course it really hinges on the result at Liverpool, so that really is the championship decider. That match is going to …
1000 Guineas
Rather bizarrely I managed to get just over 1000 Guineas in profit on the 2000 Guineas. Does this mean I will get 2000 on the 1000? I doubt it, but it was an excellent day. I just happened to have one of those days where everything just seemed to slot into place. I managed a clean sweep on all 44 races I traded today. It’s so nice to do that, but I think you have to be realistic and accept …
21 Shillings
Or a Guinea, 2000 of them were up for grabs in 1809 when the 2000 Guinea’s was first run at Newmarket. The race should now be called the 380,000 Guinea’s, but that doesn’t have the same ring to it does it?
It will always have a special place in my heart as it was the first race I traded while lounging by a swimming pool! Early on in my trading career I was on my travels, but still wanted to …
Well done Fulham
Dead and buried a few seasons ago and now in the Europa league final, an excellent campaign and a deserved final place. They really turned over the odds consistantly and provided a lot of entertainment and profit along the way. Well done!
Europa league
Really looking forward to the Europe league this evening. There are strong cases for a goal coming from any of the four teams this evening. So a strategy oriented around this or NOT 0-0 seem sensible this evening. Come later in the game, if there are no goals, neither side will have anything to lose with a strong push in the last few minutes. It will be an interesting night.
Last night I was spot on about the Barca – …
Funny moments in sport
You often get lots of funny things happen in sport, not often before a match has even started though. I couldn’t stop laughing when I watched this: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/snooker/8649851.stm
Barcelona vs. Inter Milan
I have to admit to being underwhelmed by the champions league this year. There haven’t been many superb matches, certainly not from a trading perspective. Last night wasn’t much different when Bayern Munich demolished Lyon without so much as a last desperate effort from the side that was about to go out. It’s all been a bit disappointing as I love strong incentives to win and things like late goals, that’s where the really big results come from.
The market …
Three million up
Not my P&L LOL! But Betfair’s customer base, which has now just breached the 3 million mark according to various press comments.
While three million sounds impressive it’s really difficult to know if the relevance of this metric. Where are those three million, what do they bet on, sports, games, casino? One question you can try to answer is how many are active. Last year Betfair said they have 652,000 active accounts and if their active accounts are tracking actual …
Start of season, end of season
As you are probably aware from my posts, there is nothing more I like that a football match with a strong incentive behind it. At the start of a season, form is difficult to spot early on. Though promotion and relegation isnt’ so tricky. But it’s the end of the season when things really begin to happen. With many matches classed as ‘six pointers’ for one reason or another, this time of year has always been a fertile hunting ground. …
Not again!
London marathon this weekend so I will be lending my annual support to the runners and friends that I know are running. If you are running, please let me know so I can give you a cheer as well.
Once again my feet will be itching to shuffle around the 26.2 mile course, but once again I will not be able too. My right Achilles has responded well to a new training regime, which I was hopeful would allow me …
Three’s a crowd
With another general election TV debate tonight I’ll be keeping an eye on the markets. After the last debate it seemed clear that Clegg won but I was surprised at how that translated into market movements. I am a big sceptic on polls during an election. Telling somebody how you will vote is an anathema to most people, so I don’t believe that a stranger asking how you are going to vote generates a valid opinion. As always, my preference …
Make cash from ash
I hope you are not one of many being inconvenienced by the erupting volcano in Iceland, or the national air bodies, depending on how you see it. The office is quieter this Monday thanks to the failure of quite a few people failing to return from overseas after the school Easter holidays. My wife spoke to a friend last night, still stuck in the US with little hope of return this week. Scheduled ETA at least two weeks away, I …
Getting burnt
This title could be a reflection on the weather in the UK at the moment, which is fantastic. Lots of us took advantage in the last couple of weeks to head out with the children during the Easter holidays. As a result, quite a few have a bit of burnt skin thanks to the less than common, warm and persistent sunshine. It’s not unheard of though, as I remember running the London marathon in 1996 when the temperature was 20c, …
Bit of a Kop out
No surprise to see Tom Hicks and George Gillett exit stage left at Liverpool. Struggling to refinance their debt they have to find a viable exit, but it’s a terrible time to sell. Liverpool are heading for a poor season and the attractiveness of the club must have been dented by their lack of success, not only this season but in prior seasons also. For the amount of wages they pay they really should be performing better, but I am …
The politics of betting
I think this general election could turn out to be quite a good trading opportunity.
When trading you ideally want uncertainty and I think we have plenty around at the moment. Last nights debate added some more to mix as well. I thought it was funny to follow the coverage then this morning see all the new polls coming in. I’d be surprised if the election is decided on one debate, especially the one I saw last night. But there …
Charting how you want it
I recently put this video up of how to connect to the Bet Angel charting spreadsheet that is supplied with Bet Angel. We put this spreadsheet in the product as a demonstration of not only the spreadsheet capabilities in Bet Angel, but also to give you some additional tools to play around with. I often use this spreadsheet to play with a variety of charts and technical indicators. Some are really interesting but others that prove useful in traditional financial …
Italian end of season matches
Since my first posting some time ago there have been plenty more Italian matches with strange prices. However, not all have ended up with the predicted result. There appears to be a process of reversion to mean going on! I was lucky on this one, as rather than backing the draw I opted to back Lazio, who went on to win. Because of the propensity for these matches to be unpredictable I wonder whether an element of this unusual pricing …
A grand grand
Well that is one Grand National that will stick in the memory for a while. McCoy finally landed the one race that had eluded him and I tipped it up! There’s a first and it will probably be the last national tip I’ll ever land. As it is, I think I just created a problem for next year, when all those I told this year return for next years winner. Despite warning them, I am sure they will think there …
Grand National
It’s that once day a year when everybody, even if they don’t like horse racing, has a little flutter on it.
Before I started my career on betting exchanges the Grand National was the only race I really knew anything about. I was aware of the Derby and the St Leger and some of the big meetings, but it was always the Grand National that caught everybody’s attention, including mine. I distinctly remember several successful bets that my mum placed. …
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