Recent Articles
Time is money
Odds can move in mysterious ways in a football / soccer match but generally they are quite predictable. Using Soccer Mystic to model the likely behaviour is a good way to come up with strategies that could generate a profitable scenario. Is this video I demonstrate one of those scenarios which can be used on any match that gets turned in-play.
Snow fun anymore
We all love a bit of snow, especially if you have children. But this morning I woke up to yet another dumping of the white stuff on the lawn and my heart sank. I also had to laugh as yesterday the local authority finally cleared our road and we were able to use the car again, albeit for one evening!! Today the road is treacherous again.
I fired up my iPhone racing post app and sure enough, what looked a …
FA Cup shock
Just watched Coventry take the lead against Portsmouth and the commentator said, ‘The shock is on’.
Portsmouth are not exactly on fire and I think Coventry will fancy their chances. In contrast Portsmouth are really low on morale and just don’t look up for it. The odds seem to fairly reflect that as they are pricing in an even match, so hardly a shock in my books if Coventry win.
A little tit bit for you. Steve Claridge helping commentate …
Electric start to African nations cup
Never quite seen an opening like that to a football tournament, quite incredible. Angola were running away with the game and were leading 4-0 with 11 minutes to go. Quite remarkably Mali managed to score 4 goals in the remaining time to level the match. I can’t ever remember seeing that before at a decent level.
I’ve taken quite a cautious approach to the individual games as my expertise on Football doesn’t extend to this type of competition. But I …
Oil
I applied some Oil to my horse trading fingers yesterday in an attempt to stop them from going rusty. With all the cancellations recently, I’ve traded other sports and also spent a lot of time testing a new version of Bet Angel. I’m always constantly pushing forward with more research, analysis and work on the market as well. However, I was really keen to do something on horse racing front. I tend to dislike just one meeting during the day, …
Dave Chisnall
In this very quiet start to the year I have done a lot of catching up on new projects, some more research and in the absence of horse racing I’ve turned my hand to mainly football and darts this week.
I always enjoy the BDO championship as they are just up the road from me. Perhaps I should trade darts more often. It feels very familiar to Tennis, but generally is much faster paced and finite in length. Last night …
Bleak mid-winter
Cold weather, snow and ice isn’t ideal for any outdoor sports and in particular horse racing. Winter is generally a difficult time of the year but it seems that this winter is particulary cold.
The Met Office recently issued data that indicated December was the coldest in 15 years and the popular press is talking up the prospect of a very cold winter indeed. It’s difficult to be certain if it will be as bad as the forecasts, but hysteria …
Lets play darts
This week sees the world BDO darts championship take place just up the road from me in Frimley. The main thing I remember about Frimley is that my twins were born there eight years ago now, not at the darts championship of course, at the local hospital! You don’t forget moments like that or the moment we discovered that we were not expecting our second child but twins. Of course lots of people emailed me and asked why I hadn’t …
Facebook turns it’s back on gambling
Facebook had announced it will be taking steps to remove all forms of gambling advertising from its portal, including bingo, sportsbooks, poker and casino ads. The new regime of censorship includes 20 categories including firearms, tobacco, spy cameras, politically religious agendas and pyramid schemes. Members will still have access to free casino/sportsbook-style games and gaming businesses can still create groups, fan pages and Facebook pages to connect with fans and players.
Has this happened before?
An oft quoted phrase.
But, Man U 0-1 Leeds United. That was a big turned up for the books wasn’t it? Or was it?
Well you don’t need to wind back far to see the last time a similar thing happened. I looked at matches where the home team were priced between 1.25 to 1.30 for a home win. Curiously, where this involved an English team playing a foreign team, the English teams were very dominant. Focusing just on domestic …
FA Cup value?
In the absence of horse racing today I’ve taken a look at the FA Cup fixtures this afternoon. Subject to team sheets there appears to be a lot of potential value in the Reading vs. Liverpool fixture this afternoon. I’ve explained my full rationale on the forum.
Of course, just seeing value doesn’t mean the result will come in. But over time hunting for value is always a good strategy. If the weather persists in being so cold, I’ll …
2009
Just finished adding up and checking all the data from last year. So here is a mini review: –
Last year I got off to a difficult start, to say the least. As explained over a year ago, my father was seriously Ill and requiring a lot of care. Sadly he passed away in late January and after a year of struggle I decided to take most of February off to get a clean break from a very difficult period. …
Sombre
Just sat here this evening watching “Tsunami : Caught on camera” on Channel 4. I remember very well the shock of the pictures I saw when the boxing day Tsnnami hit but it’s nothing compared to the footage and commentary from the documentary this evening.
A timely reminder as I look toward next year, that pursuit of happiness and self fulfillment is a key value that you shouldn’t forget. Wealth is not measured by monetary values alone and doing things …
Klassy Kauto
Great performance by Kauto Star in the big race on boxing day. He was priced to win, but not with such certainty. In the end Kauto Star completely and utterly destroyed the opposition in spectacular style. Compilers have now upped Kauto’s rating into the 190’s making him one of the greatest chasers the sport has ever seen. It’s been great to watch the progress of this gelding in the time I have been on exchanges. I think it’s a shame …
Merry Christmas
Merry Christmas from me and all the Bet Angel team. We hope you have a good break this holiday period and arrive fresh and ready for what I am sure will be another exciting and prosperous year!
17:47
Today at this exact time we marked the winter solstice. It’s a day I look forward to as it is the shortest day of the year. From now on in we are counting down to Spring, not up to mid winter.
The weather looks set to continue to play havoc with the sports and with only one meeting on at Southwell tomorrow, it’s time to get festive. We had big snow fall this afternoon and it lay down some of …
Nothing to play for
No action this evening for me. With the Wolverhampton twilight card proving a bit of a mare and a lot of big volume Europe league matches having bearing on the outcome of the groups, it’s a really dull evening in prospect. A good excuse to get down the pub for the last quiz of the year. I can watch some of the ‘action’ on the TV there instead.
It’s been a generally positive December so far and tomorrow, snow pending, …
Pressure on
It’s that time of year when I often turn my attention to a few unusual markets. For my research into these markets I tend to visit this page: –
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html
The markets I am looking at are the ‘White Christmas’ markets. I’ve done pretty well on them in the past and fancy a go this year again as sleet is forecast this week.
Typically the YES markets work against you as time progresses, so laying the NO is the best …
Gamble on Giggs
I noticed this evening that Jenson Button had fallen away from the favourite status and there is a bit of a gamble on Ryan Giggs to be sports personality of the year. It’s worth noting that, in the past, the favourite of this competition has often not won. Also, there are some odd results thrown up on these competitions. I’m pretty suspicious of how these competitions are won in the current format. I suspect they are open to abuse.
I …
No……………
In the thick of battle today, pushing in orders, moving them around, getting filled on some, not on others. Ducking in and around the market, taking some risk. Phew, great total on one race, great job. Celebrate by taking five minutes out and getting a drink before sitting back down to my PC.
Race void!
Doesn’t happen very often and it’s an unfortnate circumstance that has brought it around, but trust it to happen on one of the best results …
Woods to take indefinite break
Tiger Woods is taking an indefinite break from professional golf to tackle problems in his private life. In a statement on his website, he said he was aware of the disappointment “my infidelity” had caused to his family. “I have decided to take an indefinite break from professional golf. I need to focus my attention on being a better husband, father, and person.”
https://web.tigerwoods.com/news/article/200912117801012/news/
Anybody who trades the golf markets will know that a market with woods in it, is …
The 300k trader
There has been a lot of discussion on the forum about a person who often appears in a number of the horse racing markets each day. Their presence in the market is getting quite common and also quite easy to spot. Today there was nothing of note, but yesterday was different.
In the 15:50 at Taunton the price had started to drift and this initiated a response. The response was a back bet of a whopping £300k, probably to try …
R&R
As December and winter in general are quieter months I’ve been looking to get my life back a bit and take some time out to re-charge my batteries for next year. I have a hospital appointment coming up and the results of that will determine what I do in the next couple of months, so a break now seemed a good idea, just in case.
For something completely different this week, my wife and I went on the Orient Express. …
Wacky Wolves
This evening Wolverhampton provided a really interesting finish to my week. In several races the prices were all over the place and there were some huge drifters and steamers. As a result of this and a generally positive day, I managed the unusual feat of eclipsing all the other days of the week put together. Can’t complain, but it’s just very unusual.
The action started early when High Constable moved in from 3’s to 1.50 before the off. That’s a …
Channel 4 cut racing coverage
CHANNEL 4 has revealed it is slashing at least £800,000 a year from its racing budget and using the cuts to carry out “a vigorous makeover” of its coverage.
Full story here: –
But the stats said?
The recent Man City vs Arsenal match was a good match to appraise theory with reality. It’s always worth having and using stats to see what is likely to happen on average. But if you are in-play there is not point in thinking the odds will fit a perfect curve if the TV is telling you something else. A weakened Arsenal side really didn’t bring the game to City right from the off and this was reflected in the odds …
November
Despite my pessimism in October, November went a lot better than expected and I ended up a whopping 44% year on year. Not all roses though. As we slip into the harder period of the year I did suffer on individual days and my strike rate fell away. I made too many mistakes by being over aggressive at times when it just didn’t make sense. Hopefully I’ve learnt my lesson on this.
I owe most of my success last month …
Massive gamble landed
Wow, not the biggest of the year but a huge steamer in the grade 7 opener at Kempton this evening. Opening in the 20’s the price completely plunged in all the way to 3.35 before bouncing out again to go off at 4.20. I was watching TV with the kids so I missed most of this, but still managed to get a decent profit out of it. There was lots of money matched at big prices some a fair few …
Four year hoodoo ended!
Ever since I watched Southampton relegated from the premiership four years ago, my presence at a football ground seems to condemn the home team. I don’t get the chance to see many matches nowadays, but every match I turn up to since then, ends with the home team unable to win. Regardless of the quality of the teams, whether its the champions league or a more minor game, I have been unable to watch a home team win. Finally I …
Curious
There seems to be an increasing trend for very low matched bet volume on Betfair on a Saturday.
Some of the early races today had much less money matched on them than their significantly inferior midweek counterparts, it’s a curious but persistent trend. In general, I would guess there is less money being matched on horse racing than in previous years, but I’ll have to do some more work on this before I can confirm one way or the other. …
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