Tag: champions league
Betfair football trading – Profiting from knockout stages
Knockout Stages of Champions League
February brings the knockout stages of the European Champions League. The group stages tend to eliminate weaker teams from the tournament. The remaining, generally higher quality teams, know they are a few matches away from a shot at the glory of the champions league title. It’s all or nothing from here!
Fewer matches occur at this stage and the liquidity in the markets is focused on the remaining markets. So overall matched betting totals on …
Incentive to score and how it benefits your trading
That one word is how I would describe the next two evenings worth champions league matches.
Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not lose and others no incentive to do anything at all. If a team needs a goal, as the clock ticks to the end of the match all hell could be let loose as they chase it. It’s my favourite stage of a any competition!
Difficult and easy
This often makes it difficult …
Why trading works so well – On football
With the champions league football starting up again, I thought I’d take a look at football at a simple level and explain why trading works so well, using football as an example.
First off a simple maths lesson.
Finding value
When you look at odds on Betfair, they refer to the implied chance of that event occurring. If we saw Manchester United priced at 2.00, we simply divide one by those odds and it produces the implied probability of that …
Champions league final
Another excellent write up brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Saturday evening in Berlin will see what is undoubtedly the showpiece event of this year’s football calendar as Barcelona and Juventus clash having disposed of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid between them in Europe and dominated their respective domestic leagues. Indeed, the aforementioned …
Champions League Final stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Real Madrid will look to claim the elusive ‘Decima’ on Saturday night when they face city rivals Atletico in Lisbon. Xabi Alonso is suspended for Real with Asier Illarramendi expected to deputise and Isco on standby to play if Karim Benzema or Cristiano Ronaldo are not fit to start. Atletico, meanwhile, have …
Backing Liverpool
Hindsight is a wonderful thing isn’t in. But Liverpool are now into 1.19 for the title, but a controversial title awaits perhaps?
After their 0-0 draw with Athletico this week in the champions league, Chelsea are preparing for the real prospect of another champions league final. But this it seemingly going to have an effect on the title race also.
Mourinho has threatened to field a much weakened team against Liverpool, effectively handing them the title. Liverpool’s price has shortened …
Paris St-G vs Mourinho
Some clever mind games going on this week by the Chelsea manager in preparation for this match. From a market perspective it’s basically two evenly matched teams with Paris having home advantage. My guess is that Chelsea will be keen to keen the goal tally against as low as possible so I suspect a defensive approach given their ‘lack of a striker’.
The stats reflect what I’ve said above, so a difficult call really.
Paris St-G vs. Chelsea
We looked …
Mission impossible for Man Utd?
An intriguing tie at Old Trafford and one that Man Utd can’t afford to lose. You would expect that United must win by two to stand any chance of qualifying with the return leg still to come. ‘Dir Roten’ will be well aware of that and I suspect they will be happy to sit back and wait for Utd to make a mistake at first. An away goal would make it incredibly hard for United to qualify so I reckon …
Man Utd vs. Olympiakos
Do or die for Man Utd and to a certain extent David Moyes tonight. Looking forward to the match.
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 70 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 65.4% chance of a Man Utd win, a 13.9% chance of a Olympiakos win and a 21.3% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 65.7% chance of a …
Chelsea vs. Galatasaaraearaery
Chelsea vs. Galatasaray
Really looking forward to the match this evening!
We looked at our historical database of matches and found 121 matches that looked very similar. The market is discounting a 70.9% chance of a Chelsea win, a 10.2% chance of a Galatasaray win and a 19.6% chance of a draw. Our historical data shows that a match like this has produced, in the past, a 80.2% chance of a home win, a 8.3% chance of a away win …
Galatasaray 2-0 Chelsea?
Wouldn’t it be ironic if this was the scoreline this evening after all other English teams lost by the same amount. Or are Chelsea a dark horse? Looking forward to seeing the legend that is Drobga this evening. Who can forget his last campaign for Chelsea?
Here are match results from matches that have had very similar set ups in the past: –
Draw – 2007 – Newcastle vs Arsenal – Result – 0-0
Draw – 2008 – Tottenham vs …
Similar matches
When looking at matches like this evening’s champions league, I’ll often look at matches that had similar characteristics in the past. You would have seen me post up information on previous posts. For example, in the Man Utd match this evening my stats threw up the following: –
The market is forecasting 2.39 goals. Historically there have been 2.18 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38. Historically 33.3% …
Champions League – City vs Barca – Curious
Ahhh, after the disappointment of the FA Cup at the weekend we transition into something altogether different.
I like the knock out phases of this competition as it brings a real incentive to score (or not). So that adds to the dynamics of the matches. The volume bumps up as well so that means you can get stuck into the markets. The big matches out there now should engage your interest because they will be good practice for the World …
Champions league goal ratings – Wednesday
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Barcelona vs. Celtic – 138%
Chelsea vs. Steaua Bucharest – 128%
Marseille vs. Dortmund – 124%
Napoli vs. Arsenal – 118%
Schalke vs. FC Basel – 118%
Austria Vienna vs. Zenit St Petersburg – 112%
AC Milan vs. Ajax – 110%
Atl Madrid vs. Porto – 102%
I have priced in 25 goals this evening.
If you are interested in how …
Champions league ratings
Goal ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
B Munich vs. Man City – 130%
FC Copenhagen vs. Real Madrid – 128%
Sociedad vs. Leverkusen – 118%
Olympiakos vs. Anderlecht – 116%
Galatasaray vs. Juventus – 112%
Man Utd vs. Shakhtar – 110%
Benfica vs. Paris St-G – 108%
Plzen vs. CSKA Moscow – 106%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Champions league goal ratings
Goals ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray – 136%
Man City vs. Plzen – 132%
Juventus vs. FC Copenhagen – 128%
Paris St-G vs. Olympiakos – 114%
CSKA Moscow vs. B Munich – 114%
Shakhtar vs. Sociedad – 110%
Leverkusen vs. Man Utd – 102%
Anderlecht vs. Benfica – 98%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Champions league goal ratings
Goal ratings for this evening, projected variance to long term average: –
Porto vs. Austria Vienna – 125%
Dortmund vs. Napoli – 123%
Arsenal vs. Marseille – 122%
Ajax vs. Barcelona – 115%
Steaua Bucharest vs. Schalke – 104%
FC Basel vs. Chelsea – 101%
Zenit St Petersburg vs. Atl Madrid – 100%
Celtic vs. AC Milan – 95%
I’ve priced in 23 goals.
Champions league ratings for Wednesday
Excluding the early kick off.
Barcelona vs. AC Milan – 131%
Atl Madrid vs. Austria Vienna – 130%
Dortmund vs. Arsenal – 125%
Chelsea vs. Schalke – 110%
Napoli vs. Marseille – 109%
FC Basel vs. Steaua Bucharest – 108%
Ajax vs. Celtic – 103%
I’ve priced in 21 goals this evening.
Champions league ratings for Tuesday
Expected variation to average of goals scored. Most goals to least.
Plzen vs. B Munich – 137%
Paris St-G vs. Anderlecht – 129%
Man City vs. CSKA Moscow – 128%
Juventus vs. Real Madrid – 118%
Shakhtar vs. Leverkusen – 114%
FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray – 107%
Sociedad vs. Man Utd – 102%
Olympiakos vs. Benfica – 93%
I’m penciling in around 24 goals this evening.
Champions league goal ratings
Champions league ratings for this evening, forecast variation to long term average. Basically are we expecting more or less goals than average. Looks like a nice for overs, I’ve shared out 22 goals this evening.
Most to least goals: –
- Arsenal Vs. Dortmund – 118%
- Austria Vienna Vs. Atl Madrid – 110%
- Schalke Vs. Chelsea – 108%
- AC Milan Vs. Barcelona – 108%
- Steaua Bucharest Vs. FC Basel – 106%
- Porto Vs. Zenit St Petersburg – 101%
- Celtic Vs. Ajax
Adding multiple soccer markets using Guardian
Bet Angel has so many useful features that many of them are hidden away and not immediately obvious.
For example, did you know you can quickly add all ‘Match odds’ markets for football (soccer) games happening on a particular date in the Guardian tool? And if you only want to bet on the premiership games, these are easy to add too.
Multi market trading is in high demand and the Guardian tool within Bet Angel is a great way of …
Football – And so the hard work begins…
I failed in the ballot in my attempt to get tickets for the European Champions league final at Wembley today, such is life. I thought I may slip into some hospitality somewhere, till I saw the cost! It’s funny really, because I thought going to watch the Monaco Grand Prix would cost an arm and a leg. But on researching that, it seems I can still do that cheaper than the hour journey to Wembley! So Monaco will be on …
What’s Messi worth to Barcelona?
I recently asked a similar question of Gareth Bale and last night made me feel a move for Mr Bale is almost certain this summer when Spurs fail to qualify for the champions league.
But back to last night.
I must admit I was anticipating that Barcelona would ‘go for it’ from the off in an attempt to get an early goal and put pressure on Bayern early on, but it never came. Bad tactics, poor motivation? It seemed something …
My favourite football trading set up
We had a couple of wonderful matches in the champions league last night, I am hoping for some more tonight.
If you want to qualify the comments on this post, simply browse the football related posts I’ve made over the years on here and you will see why last night was a really nice set up for a possible bumper result.
Both matches last night were good trading fodder as they had a really strong incentive to score in both …
Real problems for Man Utd?
My favourite champions league memory comes from a Man Utd vs Juventus match back in 1999, before the dawn of betting exchanges.
A friend phoned me and told me he had a spare ticket for the match and “Did I want to go?”. I immediately dropped everything and headed up to Manchester. I needed a hotel, so picked a reasonable one on a late booking and headed straight there. Remarkably I’d managed to pick the hotel where the Juventus were …
Are Bayern Munich the new Barcelona?
This doesn’t seem a realistic proposition but if you look at the Arsenal champions league match this evening that’s what the market is saying.
Tonight Arsenal are 4.50 to beat their opponents and their opponents are odds on to beat Arsenal but the only similar match I can see in my recent database is when Arsenal met Barcelona on 16/2/2011. Arsenal won that 2-1, Wegner must be praying for a similar result this evening!
Champions league knock out stages
We are at the stage of the champions league that I enjoy the most. There is nothing like ‘incentive to score’ to throw up some nice trading opportunities. Hopefully we will get a few over the next couple of weeks.
With the away goal rule you have one team desperate not to concede and another desperate to score and according to my stats this throws up the largest amount of variability on football matches. Basically any cup competition is more …
Champions league
An interesting set up for tonights Champions league.
The market thinks there will be around three goals a game on average this evening and total of 21. I’m not so sure?
An average of three goals is often forecast when there is a clear winner, but that really doesn’ t look the case tonight. The least competitive matches are Spartak Moscow vs Barcelona, FC Nordsj vs Shakhtar and Benfica vs Celtic. But of course, as Celtic have proven, that odds …
By the skin of their teeth
Last night I forecasted around 24 goals and we ended up with 22. I should have used a decimal place as my spreadsheet actually said 23.5, but forecasting half a goal often doesn’t make sense to some readers! Tonight I am aiming for 22.75 and we have a generally more competitive set up for the matches tonight. Dortmund caught my eye on the last round and I’ll be looking closely at their match with Real Madrid this evening. I’m not …
A evening that’s overs before its started?
Not quite as uncompetitive as the recent International football but still some, theoretically, one sided matches this evening.
I’ve just ploughed through my spreadsheets and they seem to be forecasting around 24 goals this evening. On eight matches that averages out to just under three a game, hence the headline. Most goals are expected in the Barcelona, no surprise there, and least in the BATE v Valencia match, but most are towards the higher end of the scale. Curiously this …
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