Tag: champions league
Arsenal’s price shoots out
The draw for the first knockout stage of the Champions League has been made and of the four English clubs in the competition Arsenal have been dealt the toughest two-legged clash by drawing Barcelona.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the price for the Gunners to win the tournament immediately doubled subsequent to the draw from around 15 to 30. Traders watching the proceedings may have been able to see that Arsenal were to draw Barca, anticipate the shift and beat the hordes to …
Lessons from Liverpool
Tonight we are in the final group stages of the champions league. These matches can throw up some odd results as some have strong incentives to win and others much less so.
Last night the market was pretty stable in the Liverpool vs Aston Villa match. Then the teamsheet came out and there was no Gerrard or Torres on it! You can see the effect this had on the price. It is always worth remembering that while football matches are …
Champions league ratings
An excellent result from last night when we chose to oppose Chelsea to start and got the goal forecast spot on!
I would forecast 22/23 goals this evening. I am paying a lot of attention to the Tottenham match this evening. Spurs have a big incentive to win and market seems to be pricing that in. But my contrary side is nudging me towards Spurs making hard work of it, so I am going to try and find an opportunity …
Champions league ratings
From most to least goals: –
Chelsea vs. Zilina
FC Basel vs. CFR Cluj
Ajax vs. Real Madrid
Roma vs. B Munich
Braga vs. Arsenal
Partizan Belgrade vs. Shakhtar
Auxerre vs. AC Milan
I will forecast around 20 goals this evening. Final matches in the group stages can be tricky as managers often send out weaker teams. Chelsea should beat Zilina but may be a little short at 1.17 to win, intially. It all depends what team they put out.…
Busy week ahead
World tour finals Tennis in London, top quality stuff afternoon and evening. Champions league football and then cricket throws in its hat with the Ashes. Going to be a great week to exit November!
Champions league ratings
This evenings matches are much tighter and difficult to read. Shakhtar / Arsenal for example, if Arsenal were at home much easier. Most matches look pretty even to be honest, apart from the obvious win for Chelsea. For tonight I would forecast 21/22 goals in total.
If you look back through the blog at recent ratings, you will see we have been very close a lot of time and generally nail the lowest scoring match. The more matches there are …
Champions league ratings
Most goals to least: –
FC Copenhagen vs Barcelona
Valencia vs Rangers
Tottenham vs Inter
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Schalke
Benfica vs Lyon
Bursaspor vs Man Utd
Rubin Kazan vs Panathinaikos
A total of 18/19 goals forecast for this evening.
(Sorry for the edit but I included another match by accident and didn’t cover one other)
Champions league ratings
A successful night last night. The ratings plumped for 46 goals in all matches last night, including the champions league, and the matches delivered 43. For the champions league I was looking for 23 goals and got 25. The matches pretty much turned out as expected, though Basel’s win at Roma wasn’t on the radar. I reckon there will be around 23 goals tonight. Bear in mind there could be more or less but over the long term we will …
Champions league ratings
Here is my assessment of this evenings matches. This evenings matches are not that inspiring to be honest, so I am looking for some clear cut positions on what will probably be a quiet night for me. You can see from the ratings that the Chelsea match clearly stands out from this evenings offerings.
Least goals to most: –
Spartak Moscow v Chelsea
Braga v Partizan Belgrade
Ajax v Auxerre
Real Madrid v AC Milan
Arsenal v Shakhtar
Marseille v …
European football ratings
I’ve often posted up ratings so thought I would explain something about them. My ratings come for many years of research and are designed to shape the way I will participate in a match. People who have attended talks I have done about football, would probably get most value from them to be honest. Over time I’ve managed to get ratings accurate to a fraction of a percent over the course of a season. But it’s important to understand that, …
Busy, busy, busy..
With the end of the turf evening racing you would think things would have quietened up a bit. But no, first the US Open Tennis and then this week loads and loads of football. I’m expecting this month to be a little quieter than late, but I did surprise myself last week with my second biggest one day total of the year.
Both the Champions league and Europa league are quite nice markets to get involved in. Plenty of different …
It’s over
Last night finally saw the World Cup end.
It’s been a great couple of months but I’m exhausted, so I am personally glad to see the end of this busy period. It’s really great having such opportunities, but it’s impossible to work flat out like this for any length of time. Time for some recuperation and hindsight. It has been very rewarding though, with last week bringing in my second biggest week ever.
I’ve also gathered lots of data to …
The battle for fourth place
While most eyes were firmly focused on Man City vs Spurs last night, a remarkable battle was taking place 200 miles further north for the same place in the Scottish Premiership. Unlike the English battle, which ensured ‘arry team has broken into the previously exclusive top four, the battle in Scotland was for Europa cup place and infinity more exciting and in fact totally remarkable.
UK users can watch the highlights here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/scot_prem/8658858.stm
The match ended 6-6 and that …
Barcelona vs. Inter Milan
I have to admit to being underwhelmed by the champions league this year. There haven’t been many superb matches, certainly not from a trading perspective. Last night wasn’t much different when Bayern Munich demolished Lyon without so much as a last desperate effort from the side that was about to go out. It’s all been a bit disappointing as I love strong incentives to win and things like late goals, that’s where the really big results come from.
The market …
Backhim?
2-3 is an interesting score line for Mr Beckham to bring to Old Trafford. I thought Beckham was anonymous in the first match. I am sure he will want to do better in this leg. Two away goals is a killer for AC Milan and therefore Man U are at very short prices to qualify. Milan need a clear two goal win to stand any chance so they must score.
The market is pricing in just short of three goals …
Return of the hulk
I like this stage of the champions league. Something has to happen for a team to go through.
Arsenal are priced to beat Porto but there are many permutations available which mean that both sides have a big incentive to score. The market has been pretty accurate as a reflection of that. It is pricing in just under three goals with nearly a goal advantage to Arsenal. Usually you would expect these to be tight contests, but an early goal …
Champions league trading
Porto vs. Arsenal
Priced at a lowly 2.30 goals, this is fairly typical construction for a match of this type. Porto are priced as having a slight edge but only just. The market is pretty much spot on in terms of pricing.
B.Munich vs. Fiorentina
A less competitive clash according to the market. Priced at 2.90 with Munich having a 1.30 goal advantage. Under 2.50 goals offers long term value, I would have priced at 2.14 vs. 2.22 in the …
Arsenal vs Man Utd.
What an interesting prospect we have tonight!
Thanks to the vagaries of the aggregate score system you would think that somebody must score to go through tonight. Well I suppose it could go to extra time and penalties but you would hazard a guess that both teams would look to seal it before that. Arsenal need to overturn a 1-0 deficit, which doesn’t look impossible and Man U know if they score Arsenal will need three goals.
This seems to …
Champions league – Past performance
When you read a financial sales letter or advertisment, they always put that little caveat in that “past performance is not an indicator of future performance”, how apt in the current environment!!! You may be interested to know this often afflicts the betting market also.
It seems to be a classic case of placing too much reliance on past activity. What you often tend to find is that if something unusual has happened recently people think it has a higher …
A classic case for lay the draw?
Both champions league matches tonight are interesting from the viewpoint that somebody HAS to score. Liverpool have a mountain to climb after their comprehensive defeat at home and they must score to have any chance. They have nothing to lose. Much depends on whether Chelsea kill the game off or simply pack men behind the ball. I’m not sure what Hiddinks instructions will be? It’s quite possible they will just try to frustrate Liverpool and then catch them on the …
Champions league is back – Inter vs Man Utd
Tonight sees the resumption of the champions league with the intriguing match of Inter vs Man Utd.
Mixed signals are coming out of both camps about how they will play. Mourinho suggesting defence will be key, Ferguson hinting that won’t be the case. I doubt either are likely to tell you exactly what they are thinking.
The market is thinking about a draw. The goal forecast from the market is for 2.20 goals on average with a slight edge to …
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