Tag: cheltenham
Ear plugs for the Cheltenham roar
I’m in a nice relaxed and refreshed mood for the first day of Cheltenham. Last night I used ears plugs so I could be assured of a decent nights sleep. With three children, a decent nights sleep is not always assured.
The first day for Cheltenham is a day of learning for me. Yes I know what I am doing, but I am also really keen to understand what has changed from previous years. We will be gathering data today …
Trading the Gold Cup – Ante post market
I’ve been tracking the Cheltenham Gold Cup ante post market.
Big news today is that Kauto Star is definitely in the race and Grand Crus is headed for the RSA.
We have been tracking top 15 runners and before the announcement they made up 100.2% of the book, after the announcement 100.4%. The big negative was obviously Grand Crus, but Kauto Star only covered half that deficit, with the field making up the rest. Long Run’s odds are unchanged.
In …
Cheltenham by numbers
For those that are not on my mailing list, I prepared and sent out a little peice this weekend called ‘Cheltenham by numbers’. It’s stats based review on the festival.
You can read it by clicking on this link: –
https://www.betangel.com/newsletter/
Nightmare
I have a little diary next to my desk. In it I scribble notes on the markets and what happened and any mitigating circumstances. I also keep a spreadsheet where I track what sort of activity I have been up to.
Both are key pointers for me to look at and to set expectations from. If I look on the spreadsheet and see a really good, or really poor day. I’ll flip to the diary to see what actually happened. …
Bank building
February is the quietest month of the year for me. I do around 1/3rd of what I can during the busiest time of the year. So I tend to take some time off during February. A few years ago I was forced to take time off because of a death in the family and I’ve pretty much stuck to that since. The time off that is!
For me this period is about getting some relaxtion in and planning for the …
Cross country mayhem
I don’t do much big in-running trading but whenever there is a XC race on I’ll pay extra attention.
Today at Cheltenham 7 of 10 runners took the wrong course (again) and radically changed the profile of the race in the dying moments. Whenever you see a cross country race on the card, always take an interest.
The winner came in at 150 after not looking in contention for most of the race. The key tactic, take the right course. …
Bump..
Now Cheltenham is firmly behind us and the champions league football pauses for a few weeks, it’s time to come back to earth with a bump. On the racing front, the weeks before and after Cheltenham are often starkly different, so it’s time to dig deep and stay out of trouble.
I’ll be adopting a cautious approach in the coming week and not trying to push too hard to find an opportunity. Doing that gives you a tendency to look …
Great finish to Cheltenham
“Phew, that’s it then”. That was my feeling at the end of play today. An exhausting but rewarding Cheltenham. The gold cup was an excellent race and one that lived up to expectations, it’s really nice to enjoy the racing. We will be brought back done to earth for sure today! I have never had a good Saturday on Cheltenham week. If I do manage to pull a good day out of the hat, I’ll be in touching distance of …
All green on St Patricks day?
Yesterday was an interesting day at Cheltenham. I did OK and, combined across both exchanges, I actually did pretty well so I’ll give myself at 8/10. Volumes on Betfair are almost exactly the same as in previous years, it’s very flat.
I have now gathered enough information to determine what is and isn’t working at Cheltenham. First off, the markets are much ‘slower’ than usual, getting an order matched is a painful experience; more painful that previous years for sure. …
Something odd
Hmm, I’ll give myself a 6/10 for my efforts on the first day of Cheltenham.
The markets were not particularly easy today, but I didn’t do a great job; in comparison to other people I know anyhow. Still chucked in some good numbers, but as others did a better job I have to mark myself down as a ‘could do better’.
The first day of Cheltenham is generally spent now looking at how things have changed since last year. I’ll …
Efficient Cheltenham
Just had a browse at the first few markets at Cheltenham and it’s amazing how small the book percentage is on a lot of them. Some of the books are only just over 100% and this makes it fantastic value for backers or people dutching the market.
I’ll be gathering data all week, so I’ll let you know if I spot anything interesting. But that’s the first thing to jump out at me this morning.
Detailed Cheltenham preview
As I mentioned in the newsletter, register now for GX Magazine and get a detailed preview of the Cheltenham festival to download today. There is a multi page spread in the magazine which contains information from us full of key stats, hints and tips.
Sign up here: –
https://www.gx-world.com/uk/register.html
February
Last month was pretty quiet. When we are in depths of winter I often take some time off and prepare for the busy summer season and so it was last month.
Summer is so important in sports markets that time off during this busy period is tricky, in the winter much less so. It is important to have a break, so winter is when I tend to do that. That said, a good friend of mine is getting married in …
Cheltenham didn’t bust
Phew, things worked out OK today. Nothing spectacular for sure, but £560 from 14 markets is a useful return to the fold. Nearly all that came from Cheltenham, so the prospect of a decent day looks on the cards with the twilight and evening racing to come.
Cheltenham or bust!
With most of the racing lost to the weather once again it looks like the week will rest on Cheltenham for most racing traders. It’s a high risk strategy as there is no gaurentee that Cheltenham will provide favourable markets, especially with little infront or behind of it. Already Channel Four have asked for the times to be put back so they can cover the meeting, that’s going to impact things as well. Lets hope that when the races get …
Cheltenham
Nice to see Chelt’s back on the card and some decent jump racing. I am hoping to get something out of the open meeting and it has worked well in previous years. Looks like we have finally arrived in the jumps season proper.
With it’s arrival we also have some bad weather on the doorstep but also Christmas decorations in the shop. It’s put me in a festive mood and looking forward to the upcoming holidays.
I tend to be …
Cheltenham – Post-mortem
OK, it’s been a little while since Cheltenham finished, but I’ve been very busy on other projects and I have also been having a bit of a break before the start of the flat season proper.
Lets start from a top level. Measuring the activity to post time in the markets, a total of 26 races generated matched bet turnover on Betfair of £84.3m this year. In 2009 it generated £83m, so overall the matched bet turnover was up about …
Cheltenham day three
That’s more like it! Today was easily the best day of the week so far, but not without it’s cock ups.
In the first race I was pushing for a decent total, but successfully went in-play, again, when I forgot to SP my final orders in the market, Doh! I had some frantic sorting out to do, but escaped. It was entirely my fault and I felt a bit of a wally. Things got better from there though and I …
Cheltenham day two
Well I don’t think I will reach last years peak after another tougher than average day. I think I have too much ground to make up now in the remaining days. But it’s still going to be a good week, just not as good as it could have been! You can’t win them all.
The difference between yesterday and the Tuesday was that I really struggled to get any traction in the markets. By traction I mean you need to …
Cheltenham day one
Well that was interesting to say the least. Half an hour before the first race of the day my internet connection suddenly goes down. Up till that point it was a carefully planned day, but with that, a chaotic period ensued. The internet going wasn’t a major problem as I have back up plans. I have a laptop with mobile broadband, just in case. But I also have back up locations I can switch to. The chaos was simply that …
Cheltenham
Well it’s here again, but what does it hold in store?
To be honest I have no idea and I try my best not to set any expectations ahead of an event, I just try do my best. It’s nice to have a few clues as to how you are going to trade something, but these big events come around so infrequently you only really know how it ‘s going to behave when you are actually in the thick of …
Only a few seconds..
Amazing how a few seconds can make such a difference.
Ahead of the Eon chase we were speculating in the office at how short a price Denman was. In fact it was more like moaning, because we knew it would make getting anything out of the race pretty difficult. Our conclusion was that the incredibly skinny odds of 1.17 or thereabouts really represented the fact that Denman was going to win easy, except if he fell. We watched the race …
Welcome back Cheltenham
Delighted to see decent cards at Newmarket and Cheltenham today, with the champions meeting underway at Newmarket I am hopeful for a busy weekend. All the racing is on Racing UK today so that is helpful as wel. The coverage on this channel is so much better than on ‘At the adverts’.
There is a good mixture of different types of racing this weekend so you should be able to witness most types of markets over the next two days …
Post Cheltenham blues
Well Cheltenham is in the past and we are now back to the regular mix of all sorts of stuff on the horse racing. Suddenly you have to get used to earning in a day what you could have achieved in one race last week! But don’t despair as we are now in the ramp up to the flat season. Between now and then though, typically a tougher period awaits.
Not all doom and gloom, just around the corner we …
Golden day ahead
After what has been an excellent week we can look forward to the big day today. Thanks to all the users who have emailed me this with some excellent results and it’s great to see some exceptional totals out there. I’ve always been reluctant to post my figures up as I think they can often set false expectations but it’s great to see I was humbled on Tuesday!
Looking at the structure of the Gold Cup today it looks like …
Solid start despite cock up!
Got off to a solid start on the Cheltenham festival despite a bit of a cock up. Was busy trading the big race of the day when I figured out a lot of my orders were not going in the market. It took me ages to realise that the account I was using didn’t have the correct exposure limit! Doh!
It was too late to get the issue fully sorted at that moment in time so I just needed to
“Windy hedge” for Cheltenham
If I ever buy a horse this would be a good name! But this isn’t the name of a horse. Regular readers will know that Cheltenham last year was a bit of a mare. They abadoned racing on Wednesday then bundled in those races to the Thursday and Friday. That made things mighty tough. Sky bet have offered up a bet this year for odds that racing will be abandoned in the event of a windy day. Odds offered were …
Cheltenham volume
Just traded the 13:30 at Cheltenham and I have to say it had some of the worst volume for a Cheltenham race I have ever seen on Betfair. Hopefully it will improve during the day but the total was worse than some of the poorer quality fare I have seen and nothing near what it should be for a quality race. Not sure what to interpret on that count.
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