Tag: england
Are England just unlucky? No!
When brushing up for the Euro’s I had a good look at prior records to see if there were any trends. One of things that stood out was England’s terrible opening game record.
Since this Euro’s started in 1960 England have never won their opening game, a proud record that was upheld yesterday. So in 15 competitions spanning 52 years. It will be at least 56 years before England win their opening game of the tournament, possibly more. An amazing …
Free money
With today’s incredibly short priced international football mismatches, I thought I’d review just what has happened in the past on matches where the odds are incredibly short. The results may surprise you.
First I looked at the real shorties in our database. We found 19 matches with decent data that went off at 1.01 for the home win, all 19 ended up as home wins. Indeed you needed to head out to 1.04 to find Luxembourg’s shock win in Switzerland …
The Bank of England vs San Marino
The racing looks poor today, so I’ve turned my attention to the Euro qualifiers this evening. But I can’t trade them as I am fulfilling my promise that after a long summer earning some money I’ll use the quieter part of the season to spend it. So this evening I’m taking my son to watch England thump San Marino.
The misery of watching England
When I was young I went on several school trips to Wembley but never saw England …
What England need to do….
First off, while the England vs. Germany match will be must watch viewing for both countries this evening, personally I think the Sweden vs. Portugal match will be a cracker and is set up nicely for some drama and great potential trading opportunities. Ibrahimovic or Ronaldo won’t be going to Rio, who will it be?
Meantime back at Wembley England have a chance to show they are ready for Rio.
I don’t think you can read too much into the …
Home advantage for Poland
England at at short odds to win and get to Rio, I hope they do. I was too young to remember the legendary 1973 performance, but it seems everybody is drawing parallels with that. The simple fact is that life is best understood backwards but you have to live it forwards, so most forecasters will not be examining that chapter of England’s history and the price reflects that.
England also failed to qualify for the 1978 finals and I do …
England Expects – Another draw?
I’ll be watching but not trading tonight for the world cup qualifiers. As a rule of thumb I can’t trade something when I am emotionally attached to it. Tonight I’ll shall no doubt be shouting, moaning, directing and heading the ball at various points. I think I’d class that as an emotional attachment!
I’ll still do some stuff before the off and will probably carry that in play, but it terms of ‘hard core’ trading that can take a back …
Why the Rickie Lambert story is so rare
I remember being a small boy watching my local team, smoke wafting in my face, pie in hand until a crowd surge would dump it unceremoniously on the terrace! But hey, I’m showing my age.
I couldn’t help but let out a cheer when Lambert scored on his England debut as it’s a great story and it’s also something that gives people hope. When I stood on the terraces all those years ago I felt that if I tried hard …
Lessons from England vs San Marino
When England played San Marino at Wembley last time I captured a bunch of data. I was aiming to try and understand the best way to approach matches at such short odds.
In hindsight, most of it was obvious but it was worth examining; after-all there are lots of very short prices out there this evening.
There isn’t much to say about matches like this, England should completely pummel San Marino, but England are England aren’t they?
At Wembley, despite …
Friendless friendlies
Just scanned through the list of international friendlies today.
As you may know, through the profiling tools available in Bet Angel, I like to roughly model an event before it has started. Ths is so I can work out my rough risk and payoff on an event.
The problem I have with friendlies is that I find it difficult to make broadly correct assumptions, so these are matches I am much less likely to be active on. You can see …
Italy vs Italy
I looked long and hard at this evening’s match in Kiev and I, like the market, am finding it difficult to split the result.
I think the main reason for this is that I think both sides will cancel each other out. We have become used to Italian football being based around defense counter attacking play. Now England seems to have adopted this style as well. That seems to position the match for a low scoring nail-biter. Cue, a dramatic …
Sweden v England
Sweden’s defeat against Ukraine means a result here is essential and they will probably need a significant improvement. Lower ranked teams that have lost their previous match and are playing a side coming off a draw have lost 7/11 Euro group stage matches with 6/11 having -2.5 goals including all five second group games.
11 of Sweden’s 19 tournament matches since 2000 have had -2.5 goals while they’ve drawn six of their last eight group matches against higher ranked teams …
What we learnt about England
It’s always worth looking at Statistics to tell you what really went on in a football match, rather than what you think you saw. So with that in mind here is a round up of some stats on the England match: –
First stop has to be be ‘fourfourtwo’ as it contains the most comprehensive and objective analysis of the match. Click here to read it in its full glory. There is an app you can download from iTunes which …
The science of choking
With England due into action today I thought this may be an appropriate topic.
I will be watching the England match with great interest. Primarly to see how the England players settle in against the French. Will the weight of expectation weigh on their shoulders, or will the lack of expectation relax them and allow them to perform to their full ability? If the latter happens then that could be quite interesting with England trading at larger odds than normal. …
England expects….. Not very much
So here we are at the dawn of the Euro 2012 championships, full of hope optimism and … well, to be honest, if you are English you may be dreading it. So it reserve the optimism for other nationalities.
This must be the first tournament where universal optimism for England from English fans has vanished. Each tournament England fans generally go from skeptical to optimistic as the tournament approaches and the generally feeling on day one is ‘You know what, …
More next manager markets, please
Not so long ago we bagged a really nice profit on the next Wolves manager market. For some time it looked like the world and his dog wanted Harry Redknapp to get the England job and it seemed a sensible appointment. You could have ad ‘arry to lay to 1.27 at best. But the FA, as they have proven on many occasions, are not the general population. They are a largely politcial entity.
Probably the broadest hint that Hodgson was …
Profiting from next manager markets
Just a couple of weeks ago had a change in the England manager job with Capello walking out. A week later and we had another ‘next manager’ market to deal when Wolves sacked Mick McCarthy. Then Lee Clark is sacked from Huddersfield, Warnock joins Leeds. It sometimes feels like the managerial merry go round will never stop. I’ve actually studied what effect sacking a manager has, but that’s for another post. I think I may have written about it already …
Poppycock
You wouldn’t think such a widely accepted charity symbol could possibly be a controversial figure, but I am sure that FIFA are determined to make it so. You would think a largely political organisation would be able to successfully brush aside any possible controversy about remembering the sacrifice people make during wars in a calm and reasoned manner before anything controversial came of it. But FIFA appear to have fowled up again on this one.
You can see the logic …
Overreaction to Aussie supremacy?
Having taken a look at the stats in preparation for the fourth Ashes Test down under, one of the things that has really stood out is that there has not been a draw at the MCG since 1997. In that period there have been 10 Australian victories and England were beaten by an innings and 99 runs the last time the sides clashed.
There’s no denying that the Baggy Greens have an excellent record at the MCG, but traders should …
Trade the Ashes to Adelaide…
Australia enter the second Ashes Test under intense pressure after being humiliated by England, who managed to turn around the first Test in Brisbane last week.
The Adelaide Oval, venue for the Second Test, was once famous for throwing up frequent draws, although there have only been three here since 1991.
If anyone’s considering laying the draw on Betfair or Betdaq (currently trading at 2.06), I wouldn’t disagree with them, despite Australia seemingly lacking a convincingly reliable wicket taker and …
Are England Hungary enough?
After that rather forgettable world cup campaign do England have enough enthusiasm to munch through some goals against Hungary?
Some new blood is expected to be on the pitch this evening but I can’t muster much enthusiasm for the match. From a betting and trading perspective I don’t like friendlies as it’s difficult to really establish what the true price should be. That makes recommending a really viable and worthwhile strategy incredibly tough. I struggle to participate in things I …
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having …
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when …
The maths behind penalities – Part One
Groups stages, tight games, can’t afford to lose, Germany, England. This must only add up to one thing, penalties!
Are we going to suffer again, will there be the same agony as in prior years? Penalties is another area I have looked at and I think the findings may be of use to any prospective England goalkeeper facing a penalty, football traders may also benefit.
First off, you can reach some easy conclusions. From spot to net, the ball will …
That match
Given the gloom and doom I am almost tempted to back England this evening. But much of that depends on price and what the team looks like when it is announced. The match is priced for 2.56 goals with a 1.60 advantage to England, yeah right! England just haven’t looked a potent threat upfront and I think it’s optimistic to imagine a free flowing high scoring game, lets hope I am wrong!
If you look at the world cup so …
Not a joke
Honestly, not a joke; but this is the book I am reading at the moment just before I go to bed. It’s actually a really good read and highly recommended for sports traders!
1.05 about to be turned over?
Should England pack up and come home? Traded at 1.05 to qualify last night must have those backers quivering. After failing to beat Algeria, which most teams in the English football league could surely achieve, has there ever been a more defining moment in English national football?
For many, many years we have had loads of great individuals but seemingly no team. Last night showed this up in clear light again and surely the time has come to stop picking …
England’s fate already known
When England step out onto the pitch this evening they will know what they need to do. If the USA get a good result against Slovenia, then England really need to dispatch Algeria with confidence. If not it all goes to the last game. I say this because the English will probably want to avoid the impressive Germans. No point in holding out for a draw in the knockout phase is there?
The US are priced at 2.20 goals against …
Blunt start by England
In fact, most of the matches have been pretty blunt, which seems to often be the case in the world cup early matches. England had a great chance to really get off to a good start after taking the lead so early, but I don’t feel there were aggressive enough going forward. England now need to convincingly win the next two games or they could end up on the wrong side of the draw.
No doubt the following image will …
USA 1 – 0 England
Not a premonition but a recollection of times gone past. Until England drew the US in the group stages I wasn’t even aware of this episode of sporting history. It seems England have always been under-performers, but perhaps were a bit unlucky on this occasion. You would get 17’s for a repeat performance tonight.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_v_United_States_%281950%29
Ratings for today: –
England vs US – Market is forecasting 2.50 goals with at least 1.70 to England, leaving a paltry 0.30 to the …
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