Tag: finding value
Finding value in Football matches
Yesterday I posted the following:-
There were a number of reasons I said I was looking for some upsets, far too complex for one blog post. But one of the things was confidence. Not confidence in my ability, that’s not a problem :), but more confidence within the teams playing each other. It looked fairly ripe for an upset or two. Therefore I was looking to lay (and / or trade) with that in mind. I was opposing the …
Finding value in football matches
Value is created where the odds on offer don’t reflect the true reality of the underlying event. If you back when you think value is high and lay when it is low you should, over long periods of time, profit from this discrepancy. The key question of course is, what is value and how do you spot it?
Let me give you some scenarios: –
Match one description
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The home team is ranked 1st in the division and is
What does value look like?
I’ll often make suggestions around value. In my football ratings I point to matches that will have above or below value median results. What I am trying to say is this looks value, that is value, this isn’t. But what does value look like?
One thing it is not, is a tip. I’ll liberally scatter the words ‘on average’ into many posts as that is what value looks like. All sports and most events show a great deal of variability …
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