Tag: football
Europa league ratings
Tonights ratings from most to least goals: –
Most point to overs tonight and I would forecast 64 goals this evening.
PSV v Debrecen
Sevilla v Karpaty
OB v Young Boys
Porto v Besiktas
Leverkusen v Aris Thes.
Juventus v Red Bull Salzburg
Gent v Sp Lisbon
Lausanne v Sparta Prague
Dinamo Kiev v Az Alkmaar
Lech Poznan v Man City
Rosenborg v Atl Madrid
Rapid Vienna v CSKA Sofia
Hajduk Split v Zenit St Petersburg
Getafe v Stuttgart
BATE …
Champions league ratings
This evenings matches are much tighter and difficult to read. Shakhtar / Arsenal for example, if Arsenal were at home much easier. Most matches look pretty even to be honest, apart from the obvious win for Chelsea. For tonight I would forecast 21/22 goals in total.
If you look back through the blog at recent ratings, you will see we have been very close a lot of time and generally nail the lowest scoring match. The more matches there are …
Champions league ratings
Most goals to least: –
FC Copenhagen vs Barcelona
Valencia vs Rangers
Tottenham vs Inter
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs Schalke
Benfica vs Lyon
Bursaspor vs Man Utd
Rubin Kazan vs Panathinaikos
A total of 18/19 goals forecast for this evening.
(Sorry for the edit but I included another match by accident and didn’t cover one other)
Arsenal vs West Ham
Compiled some premier league ratings today but didn’t get time to put them up this morning.
Anyhow, top of expected list of goals was Arsenal vs West Ham at nearly 3.5 goals. Given that this match is now at 0-0 at half time, but there has been plenty of goal mouth action. I think there is a lot of value here in terms of backing an Arsenal win or laying a low goal tally. Counter arguments are that is …
Trade of the season (so far)
I mentioned in another post about the Portsmouth saga and it turns out I was correct in my interpretation. This turned out to be the trade of the season so far. Portsmouth relegation markets have been a nice earner in the last couple of years!! I’ll have to wait till May to get paid out but I can now green out and look for the next opportunity.
Pompey likely to close down
Portsmouth say they are likely to fold after talks with former owner and key creditor Sacha Gaydamak broke down. Full story here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/p/portsmouth/9120108.stm
Odds on Betfair for relegation have plunged from 11’s to heavy odds on. In settlement terms Betfair count going out of business as relegation, hence the change in odds. I suspect this could be a wake up call from the administrator to the only creditor holding up the process. Lets wait and see….
Rooney signs five-year deal with…
What a saga and seemingly for nothing, Rooney has signed for…… Man Utd. Was this just one big bluff? It will be interesting to understand what exactly happened here.
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/m/man_utd/9118602.stm
Europa league ratings
Great night of Champions league football last night and an evening that pretty much went as expected. We came out with 20 goals versus the 23 I forecast.
The Europa league is much more open and I reckon there could be as many as 62 goals this evening. With the Europa league spilt across two start times this presents quite a few opportunities and I am sure a few quality positions will occur this evening. I expect there to be …
Champions league ratings
A successful night last night. The ratings plumped for 46 goals in all matches last night, including the champions league, and the matches delivered 43. For the champions league I was looking for 23 goals and got 25. The matches pretty much turned out as expected, though Basel’s win at Roma wasn’t on the radar. I reckon there will be around 23 goals tonight. Bear in mind there could be more or less but over the long term we will …
Champions league ratings
Here is my assessment of this evenings matches. This evenings matches are not that inspiring to be honest, so I am looking for some clear cut positions on what will probably be a quiet night for me. You can see from the ratings that the Chelsea match clearly stands out from this evenings offerings.
Least goals to most: –
Spartak Moscow v Chelsea
Braga v Partizan Belgrade
Ajax v Auxerre
Real Madrid v AC Milan
Arsenal v Shakhtar
Marseille v …
Merseyside Derby
How tantalising is this match!
I’m not sure if I have seen a better set up for this Derby in all my years of following football. Passions will be high and both teams will be desperate for a win. Neither team can really afford to lose, but recent stats favour the home team. Everton have won 9/13 home fixtures while Liverpool have won just 1/12 away fixtures. Given various circumstances I suspect this will be a draw. This is much …
Liverpool could face points deduction
Liverpool need to agree a sale by the 15th October or else they could be put into administration. This is significant if you remember my post last year about a similar situation with premiership club Portsmouth. Full story here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/l/liverpool/9074311.stm
TV rights to do a Bosman?
An important case taking place this week in the European courts of justice. If successful the case could led to a deterioration of the money coming into UK football. I suspect there will be many battles to follow if the ruling goes against the premier league.
You can’t help but feel sympathy for people in one territory who are forced to pay much higher costs just because of a line drawn on a map. Given the mobility of information in …
Predicting a draw
Before I start, my ratings on the champions league this week were almost spot on. Thanks to the standard deviation of these things, its quite rare to hit the nail on the head. But the large number of matches did help quite a bit in hitting the bullseye this week. So it’s been an excellent week on the footy, I’ve got some money to give back now!
I was interested to see some discussion on predicting a draw bumping around …
European football ratings
I’ve often posted up ratings so thought I would explain something about them. My ratings come for many years of research and are designed to shape the way I will participate in a match. People who have attended talks I have done about football, would probably get most value from them to be honest. Over time I’ve managed to get ratings accurate to a fraction of a percent over the course of a season. But it’s important to understand that, …
Spain will win
While browsing the other night I found this really interesting peice: –
https://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/1008/predicting-football-1008.cfm
It’s quite rare to find some decent stuff on the Internet. It’s amazing how many experts are out there, despite there actually being very few people who can claim to be true experts. My definition, somebody who is willing to back up their rhetoric with hard cash!
Anyhow, this is an interesting peice and would have made an even better read before the world cup!
Liverpool loan deal falls through
These are troubling times for Liverpool….
Liverpool Football Club’s financial turmoil took another turn for the worse after it was reported that the asset management and financial services company Blackstone Group had backed out of a deal with Liverpool co-owner Tom Hicks.
It was widely reported earlier in the week that GSO Capital Partners, a subsidiary of Blackstone, was close to finalising a two-year US$437 million loan with the Liverpool owner, which would’ve allowed Hicks to repay US$370 million owed …
Busy, busy, busy..
With the end of the turf evening racing you would think things would have quietened up a bit. But no, first the US Open Tennis and then this week loads and loads of football. I’m expecting this month to be a little quieter than late, but I did surprise myself last week with my second biggest one day total of the year.
Both the Champions league and Europa league are quite nice markets to get involved in. Plenty of different …
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I …
Are England Hungary enough?
After that rather forgettable world cup campaign do England have enough enthusiasm to munch through some goals against Hungary?
Some new blood is expected to be on the pitch this evening but I can’t muster much enthusiasm for the match. From a betting and trading perspective I don’t like friendlies as it’s difficult to really establish what the true price should be. That makes recommending a really viable and worthwhile strategy incredibly tough. I struggle to participate in things I …
First trade of the premiership season
It’s not often that the first decent trade of the season occurs before the season has started, but have a look at the odds on the Aston Villa’s first match of the season against West Ham.
With a lack of funds available for transfers it was quite likely O’Neill may get upset, though I am not sure many anticipated his departure. If you read the August edition of Gambling magazine you will see I hinted at clubs where this could …
Where will your team finish?
The new football season is underway in the UK and the start carries the hopes of millions of football fans up and down the country.
I’ve studied many facets of the football market to try and understand what was the best way to forecast promotion / relegation and performance over the course of the a year. In the end I found a simple explanation and forecasting tool that could proved to be pretty accurate giving an 80-90% correlation over a …
It’s over
Last night finally saw the World Cup end.
It’s been a great couple of months but I’m exhausted, so I am personally glad to see the end of this busy period. It’s really great having such opportunities, but it’s impossible to work flat out like this for any length of time. Time for some recuperation and hindsight. It has been very rewarding though, with last week bringing in my second biggest week ever.
I’ve also gathered lots of data to …
The world cup effect?
We noticed recently that the racing markets have picked up a bit recently. So I thought I would look to see if volume had been affected by Wimbledon and the World Cup. I picked a day when England were playing and looked to see if volumes had dropped.
You can see the gap on the graph, but this was mainly caused by the first race not reaching the same volume as the last race, last year. If you adjust the …
Germany vs Spain
The market is priced for 2.40 goals or thereabouts with a 1.20 goals to Spain. The Germans have stormed through to the semi final whereas the Spanish appear to have ground out results but both teams slipped up in the group stages.
Some interesting notes I’ve copied from elsewhere: –
- Victory at Euro 2008 was only Spain’s second win in eight competitive games against the Germans.
- Germany are unbeaten in three previous World Cup games against the Spanish.
- Overall, the
Uruguay vs Netherlands
I think you would have to fancy the Netherlands in this match, which the market is doing by one goal. But it is also pricing in very few goals, just short of 2.30. So the market summarises this as a tight match with the Dutch should win.
I would secretly like a Germany / Netherlands final as it would add some serious spice to the mix, but I suspect Uruguay will feel they have an equal chance. A lot rests …
More about penalties
Following the recent chatter on penalties, I note the absence of them so far! Somebody posted on the forum about a very useful tool that you can use.
I didn’t know this existed, so thanks to the poster for finding it. It confirms what I was talking about, but more importantly it could prove very useful if a match goes to penalties. This is because it allows you to examine all previous results from the penalty takers and …
Ouch, that’s embarrassing
I don’t think it needs any more comment really does it? Apparently the English league is the most competitive and highly paid in the world with some of the best individuals. And individuals they will remain!!!
I’ve consoled myself by smashing into a few horse races that followed the match, sorry about that! But one of them was the Irish Derby, too good to miss. Grabbing a few hundred will allow me to drown my sorrows tonight.
Coin flippers re-union at 3pm
Had a look at THE match stats this morning.
The market has priced in just a shade over two goals for the Germany vs England match. England have a 0.10 goal advantage. The market is pricing in a tight nervous affair where one goal could be enough, but a draw is the most likely result. Obviously if you share two goals amongst two teams then a draw is very likely.
I sense a nervous two hours come 3pm but having …
The maths behind penalities – Part Two
Yesterday we saw that goalkeepers are basically glory seekers, or at least showing that they understand the psychology of failing the right way. Today we give a final answer on what David James should do if faced by a German penalty today.
Often the best way to look at something is to turn it on it’s head. When we looked at penalities we saw that while kicks are randomly distributed, the goalkeepers actions are not. So lets look at when …
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