Tag: football
Four year hoodoo ended!
Ever since I watched Southampton relegated from the premiership four years ago, my presence at a football ground seems to condemn the home team. I don’t get the chance to see many matches nowadays, but every match I turn up to since then, ends with the home team unable to win. Regardless of the quality of the teams, whether its the champions league or a more minor game, I have been unable to watch a home team win. Finally I …
1234 & 9-1
Amazing result from Spurs on Sunday. Not often you get to see 10 goals in a match, especially nine of the them in the second half. That said, Spurs did get a 6-4 against Reading on 29/12/2007. In the same season we also had Portsmouth vs Reading on the 29/9/07, which produced a 7-4 scoreline. I have actually watched a 10 goal match. It was Southampton vs Coventry, which Southampton won 8-2. Some time ago though, that was back in …
Liverpool vs Man City
I’ve had quite a few emails on this match so here are my prices.
Liverpool – 2.02
Man City – 4.30
Draw – 3.60
As you can see the market has it pretty much spot on, maybe very minor value on Man City. I know my prices are within 0.10 accuracy over the course of the season so I can’t see any value. Both teams probably won’t want to lose this one so perhaps a tentative match is likely?
A …
Massive match fixing probe launched
German prosecutors have launched a probe into around 200 football matches. They suspect a number of matches, including champions league and Europa league matches, have been targeted by criminals who bribe players and officials to fix games. The criminals made money by betting on the results. Matches under investigation were played in Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Croatia, Slovenia, Turkey, Hungary, Bosnia-Hercegovina and Austria.
More detail here, German coverage here.
How to turn over a 1.60 shot
I knew Southampton would lose yesterday, or at least not win. How? Well there were two key overriding factors in yesterdays match.
First, I had bothered to make the trek to the south coast to watch the match. Because of the unsocial hours of the sports markets I don’t get the chance to watch much sport so when there is a team nearby that plays when I can watch, I’ll often nip along. Unfortunately for Southampton every time I watch …
Real Copa Crash
Real Madrid crashed out of the Copa Del Rey last night. As though that wasn’t bad enough for Real Fans it was to lowly AD Alcorcon. Priced at 1.39 to win the first leg away Real Madrid promptly got thrashed 4-0. But that was OK because they had 90 minutes of the second leg to turn it around. Last night they stumbled to a late 1-0 win and stumbled out of the cup.
Real Madrid play Zurich at home in …
Football value this evening
A quick glance on this evenings football has through up Leeds as a clear value candidate. Rather than duplicate the information here, please have a quick read of the posting on the forum. The thing that stands out on this match is that it is a clear value candidate. Very often things are a lot more marginal, but here there is clear room.
Bear in mind that value only appears over time, so you need to stake with that …
Swine flu hits Blackburn team
See full article here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/b/blackburn_rovers/8325606.stm
The impact on the market has been immediate, with the price on Blackburn drifting throughout the day. I guess this will continue unless the match is called off. I’m not particularly keen on making money on somebodies misfortune so I will duck out on this one.
While most Football markets are pretty stable things like, injuries, weather and illness can have a profound affect on the pre-match market. I’ve seen lots of similar things …
Retrograde motion
Have a look at the England match last night and you could see a classic bit of why the market is efficient, but it isn’t. Immediately after the first England goal it was quite possible to back the draw and see it come in a fair bit. A fair bit as far as the odds were concerned, but not much in implied probability, around 2.5%.
The price on the draw came in after the first goal and this is contrary …
Better with ten men
It’s always been frustrating to see people comment that a team seems to play better with ten men, the stats don’t back this up. That said, this isn’t a great example; as the team who had the player sent off did go on to win! However, you can see that the price reacted quite clearly when Da Silva was sent off.
I haven’t modelled a sending off accurately just yet but, I am getting there. On this occasion the market …
Not playing tonight
No activity from me this evening as it’s my fourteenth wedding anniversary and we are out for a posh meal and some pampering. Traditional musings say this is an Ivory anniversary, but modern says Gold so it looks like a Spandau Ballet single is in order, LOL!
Just a quick post on the England vs Croatia game.
I reckon the odds should be 1.61 England, 7.20 Croatia and 4.1 the Draw.
Current market prices are similar but too short on …
Barcelona vs Shaktar
My models suggest a price of around 5.50 for the draw. Currently it is trading at 5.2 to back so this suggests, for once, there is value in laying the draw here. Even if I use a pessimistic view I wouldn’t shorten the price to less than 5.35. That said there isn’t a great deal to play for in this match.
Most of these assumptions revolve around the price of Barca. I would price them around 1.36 versus the 1.42 …
Arsenal vs Celtic
With the end of the evening racing I’ve finally put my footie head on. Market is priced for 3 goals with Arsenal expected to score at least a couple of those. From a stats perspective the price on Arsenal and Celtic is about right. If pushed for a price I would offer 1.40 on Arsenal and 11 on Celtic, looks like a Arsenal win! But I would also offer only 5’s on the draw which means there is some value …
$100k Soccer challenge
A couple of guys recently flew into the UK do my course in July. They have now taken the bold step to do their own challenge via a blog. In contrast to others, they are going to do this on football.
They were a smart couple of guys and I’ve no doubt they will do well. Based on the start they have got off to, I think they may need to up their target a little bit. You can view …
Friendlies
Just a short note while watching the England vs Holland friendly, I don’t do friendlies! I like teams to have a specific imperative to win or to score. If such a condition doesn’t exist, I think it makes it much harder to read how the match is likley to play out given any particular scenario.
I am currently a little late preparing the ground for this season proper so you may have to wait a little while before seeing some …
Coincidences
I had another one of those coincidences last night. I went to my local Gym which is attached to a luxury hotel. I drifted through the hotel and there in front of me was the chairman and manager of Southampton football club. As you may know, for my sins, I have followed Southampton from when I was very young as they were my local team. I had a little chat with them, but they obviously have a lot on …
Information in a price
I love the way that markets operate. For most of the pre-season I have been following the various fortunes of the high profile premier league clubs. There have been some clear indicators of what is happening and how to discount that into price. Man City buying up everything that Real Madrid can’t, Man U selling off some prize assets, Arsenal doing nothing. All this activity has been slowly reflected into the prices. Have a browse of the premiership winner and …
Football is back
Happiness and sadness at the start of the new football season. Happy because there are suddenly more opportunties, but sad because it means the end of the summer racing is near.
I like racing a lot, simply because you get loads of it very quickly and you can dip in and out of it. A race every ten minutes from 2-9pm is just perfect, when the card thins out, it is less enjoyable. With racing you also know quickly if …
Champions league trading toolkit
Want some ideas for this weeks champions league matches?
I put a post up about trading the markets before the off here. Unfortunately watching a video of scalping the pre-match market would be less interesting than watching paint dry, but here are some videos other things you can do: –
Value in under 2.5 goal markets
Thought you may find this interesting. Here are the prices for the under 2.5 goal markets on the premiership tonight. In the first column you can see the prices that were listed on Betfair and in the second column you can see my prices. The difference between the two will tell you if the markets represent value or not. For example, in the Fulham match you can see that the markets have rated the chance of under 2.5 goals at …
Champions league is back – Inter vs Man Utd
Tonight sees the resumption of the champions league with the intriguing match of Inter vs Man Utd.
Mixed signals are coming out of both camps about how they will play. Mourinho suggesting defence will be key, Ferguson hinting that won’t be the case. I doubt either are likely to tell you exactly what they are thinking.
The market is thinking about a draw. The goal forecast from the market is for 2.20 goals on average with a slight edge to …
One for the conspiracy theorists!
Was it my imagination or did the live TV feed from the Everton vs Liverpool FA Cup match break down right at the critical moment? One minute the match was dragging on to a 0-0 draw and penalties. The next minute the feed is lost and we see adverts and the like. During the ‘outage’ Everton score. Goodness knows how many minutes without a goal and then an outage in the seconds a goal goes in. A coincidence I am …
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