Tag: football
Early season expectations
A interesting write up brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
[Peter – I’ve also looked into the start of the season for opportunities to lay or back teams with difficult or easy starts. Bournemouth and Norwich have a fair start but descend into some really tough fixtures as the season warms up. You can use this information and the sort of …
Champions league final
Another excellent write up brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Saturday evening in Berlin will see what is undoubtedly the showpiece event of this year’s football calendar as Barcelona and Juventus clash having disposed of Bayern Munich and Real Madrid between them in Europe and dominated their respective domestic leagues. Indeed, the aforementioned …
Saturday Soccer Stats
With three games remaining this is the definition of a ‘six-pointer’ as a win for either side could well prove the death blow to the other’s hopes of survival, and if Burnley lose they will definitely be down this weekend.
Hull were outplayed by Arsenal on Monday but they had won back-to-back matches prior to that and their recent home form is quite good. They’ve won three of their last six at the KC …
Saturday Soccer Stats
Spurs salvaged a draw at Southampton last weekend to maintain their sixth position in the standings and they remain hopeful of finishing fifth after Liverpool’s midweek loss at Hull. Man City, meanwhile, are back up to second following their rather lucky win over Aston Villa. Of course Villa are in good form and did recently end Spurs’ 10 match unbeaten streak at home.
Spurs started the season poorly at White Hart Lane, losing …
Permutations at the ready
Bournemouth are at home to Bolton this evening, a win will see them get promoted. Well I say that, but a win would put them three points ahead of rivals with a vastly superior goal difference. As good as a promoted.
There are a number of permutations available for the adventurous this evening. Bournemouth are 1.30’s for the match and 1.10ish for promotion. Backing them for the match but going against promotion could prove useful. Of course they could draw …
Saturday Soccer Stats
With six games remaining Barcelona have the advantage in the title race against Real Madrid. But it’s only a slender lead and while Espanyol have tended to be woeful at this time of year in recent seasons – in their final eight games since 2009/10 their record is W7-D11-L24 with a greater than 50% loss if you’d backed them in all those matches – you can guarantee they’ll be motivated for this clash.
Unfortunately …
Going to the wire
It’s a fascinating season in the Championship this year and it’s going to wire!
The championship is always ultra competitive, unlike the premier league most years, and this often throws up some interesting scenarios. The prize on offer, promotion to the premiership is such a large one, that clubs will spend or ‘fight like beavers’, to get a chance of the riches on offer.
This year we are only three games away from deciding which two lucky teams will get …
Finding value in a football match
Not so long ago I tweeted the following: –
Tonight Bournemouth play Reading away but there is an interesting metric going on tonight. Reading are reasonably, though not entirely clear, of relegation in the Championship. But more importantly they are only 90 minutes away from an FA Cup final.
Bournemouth are in the position of being in complete control of their destiny at the top of the division. If they win every match remaining they will be in the premier …
Manchester Derby
The Manchester clubs come into the derby having experienced contrasting fortunes in recent weeks. Comparisons between Van Gaal’s side and David Moyes’ team at the same stage last season are now long gone and the Dutchman seems to have put his stamp on the side after a turbulent start to the season. Pellegrini, on the other hand, is looking anything but secure in his position as manager of City, who look destined …
How to treat teams with nothing to play for
As we approach the business end of the season, with titles being decided, clubs scrambling to achieve European qualification and some fighting for their lives to avoid relegation, in each of Europe’s top leagues there will be a group of teams that don’t fit into any of the aforementioned categories. They are far enough clear of the relegation zone to not be concerned, while the European spots are out of their grasp in the number of games remaining and these …
Sunday Soccer Stats
Chelsea come into this game on the back of a thoroughly disappointing result and performance against PSG in midweek, while Southampton’s schedule has been much easier without the rigours of European football or domestic cup ties. They beat Crystal Palace last weekend in what was a much needed win after defeats against West Brom and Liverpool. Chelsea will be looking to maintain their comfortable position at the top of the league, while Southampton will …
Has Manuel Pellegrini got Manchester City’s Tactics Right?
Trading Relegation markets
I recently did a piece of relegation markets, concerning manager sackings which often occur at Christmas and new player arrivals / departures in the new year.
I have written a short piece for Betfair and a longer one for Racing Ahead magazine, but I think the video I did on You Tube is probably the best overall summary. You can view it here, or I have embedded it at the end of this video.
To supplement this video you may …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments
PREVIEW: Everton v Man City (Sat, 15:00)
Everton’s injury-time equaliser against West Ham in Tuesday’s FA Cup game provided some much-needed respite following four straight league defeats. Things don’t seem to be getting any easier for Everton though, with Champions Manchester City probably close to the bottom of Roberto Martinez’s list of …
Shocking moments
The romance bit comes from a non league team coming up against a major club and beating them. But the evidence for regular giant killings is getting a little thin on the ground.
Last year we had Sheffield United getting all the way to the semi finals and of course in 2013 Wigan ensured the demise of Mancini’s tenure at Man City by winning the Cup. But since the start of the Premier League no team from outside the it …
Carling cup quarter-finals
I put this video up on You Tube yesterday and thought it was worth documenting on the blog as well for people that haven’t seen it. But basically there are a couple of nice set-ups in the quarter finals.
Sunday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments
PREVIEW: Man Utd v Liverpool (Sun, 13:30)
Man Utd are up to third after a five-game winning streak while Liverpool’s season continues to fall apart after another poor European display in midweek. Despite United’s recent resurgence, however, they’ve been far from impressive as both Southampton and Arsenal outplayed them and without Angel …
Incentive to score
Incentive to score is a key element of a football match.
This can be present in any football match, but is typically dominant in knockout tournament or where a particular result is required. So it could also apply to matches where a result is needed be to avoid relegation, to reach fourth spot in the league or qualify for the next round of a tournament or something similar.
Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments
PREVIEW: Arsenal v Man Utd (Sat, 17:30)
The past few years have seen Arsenal fail to perform against the best teams in the league time and again, and their record against Man Utd is no exception. Arsene Wenger’s men have won just one of their last 14 games in all competitions against …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Man City’s run of wins came to an abrupt end last weekend as they lost at West Ham while Man Utd salvaged a point at the death against leaders Chelsea. That late Robin van Persie equaliser did City a huge favour as they avoided …
Using Bet Angel football ratings
You may have seen me post ratings from time to time and a debate raged on the forum about what exactly I was posting and what was it? So I thought I would take time to explain the rationale behind the ratings. You can find the ratings posted to this thread on a regular basis.
How did the ratings come around
Way back when I was trying to win the football pools I realised I needed to understand how to …
95% return on stake
I thought that headline may grab your attention that the screen shot!
Basically it’s an accurate description on what I did last night before the champions league matches started, only I tend to do it on a larger scale and that reduces percentage returns. For this example, which I am documenting in detail for my course, I did it using highly replicable £10 stakes. It would be easy to add a zero to this number. Harder to add two!
Before …
Saturday soccer stats
Betfair currently have the following football offers available today, click on any of them for full details: –
4/1 Man City to beat Spurs + Money back if you lose, 8/1 Arsenal, Chelsea and Southampton to win + Money back if you lose, 5/1 Liverpool to beat QPR + Money back if you lose & for existing Betfair customers 11/2 if Arsenal, Everton and West Ham all win.
These stats are brought to your by our friends …
Betfair to broaden cross matching in football markets
I’ve been aware for some time, but now it’s official; Betfair are widening the cross matching net to crossover into related markets.
What exactly does this mean?
Betfair have coined the development ‘Cross market liquidity pooling’ and it’s taking place on football. It’s not due till November and will roll out if everything goes ok.
The bottom line is if you place a bet in one market it will appear in another and vice versa. This will have the effect …
The Bank of England vs San Marino
The racing looks poor today, so I’ve turned my attention to the Euro qualifiers this evening. But I can’t trade them as I am fulfilling my promise that after a long summer earning some money I’ll use the quieter part of the season to spend it. So this evening I’m taking my son to watch England thump San Marino.
The misery of watching England
When I was young I went on several school trips to Wembley but never saw England …
Two horse races
Here are three two horse races for you: –
(1) A two horse race yesterday at Epsom, utterly depressing. Difficult to trade, I made a loss.
(2) A Tennis match, a joy of uncertainty and volatility. Currently occurring daily in NY at the US Open Tennis at the moment. Lovely to trade.
(3) The ensuing premier league battle. Two horse race? I hear you say, but the market is speaking loudly about the prospects of the key teams already.
Chelsea …
When to use form and when not
Each day I flick through the available sports on offer and have a quick look for anything interesting.
On the racing today something jumped out immediately, Battle group in the 16:00 at Kempton.
Battle group famously refused to race at the Grand National and caused a false start. They restarted, but it didn’t make it past the first fence. Today it is running over 1m4f at Kempton. One look at it’s form and it’s a miserable recent record, three refused …
It’s all kicked off – Saturday soccer stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
As an opening season offer, Football Form Labs are offering discounts of up to 33% or £100 off on our Form Lab products. Scroll down the page to learn more…
The Premier League kicks off with two teams facing several question marks after their performances …
Pre-season football
Interested to see the result from Man Utd’s first result under new management!
But….. not much to be read into pre season friendlies TBH. As a manager you are looking at new players, either acquired or coming up through the ranks and assessing things for the next season. Results are not paramount, but injuries are and when I looked into pre-season friendlies a few years ago there seemed to be little correlation to the start of the new season.
What …
Did Betfair have a good World Cup?
Now the fuss has died down and the rioting taken place, it’s time to reflect on the World Cup.
From a footy perspective it was great. Much more entertaining than the previous world cups and plenty of talking points. England somehow managed to surpass even their supporters low expectations.
I managed to do a record amount on the World Cup, but that’s surprising as I spent most of last footy season carefully pulling together a number of things to deploy …
Connect
Connect with us on the following social media platforms.