Tag: football
World Cup Final stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
First off, kudos to Football Form Labs for picking the winner of the World Cup. But hold your horses the match hasn’t started yet? Well it doesn’t matter because they nominated both Argentina and Germany, boom! Well done. So here are their thoughts on the final
Much like when these sides met …
World Cup Quarter finals
What have we learnt so far from the tournament?
Well Brazil are still favourites and Argentina and still second favourites. Germany has moved up a place thanks to the elimination of Spain.
At the start of the tournament the top 16 made up 99.1% of the book. The remaining teams now make up 99.9%, that’s not surprising considering the only remaining bottom half team are the ‘whipping boys’ Costa Rica. It’s amazing to think that Costa Rica were 1000 to …
Betfair exhibit sense of humour
Just took this screen shot to use at the course I’m presenting on Tuesday. Take a look at the top left of the screen!
The (cold hard cash) winners so far in the World Cup
OK we know who’s through and who is out, but how has that translated into a profitable strategy so far in the World Cup?
Listed below are the returns to £10 stakes on each team that has qualified for the knock-out part of the tournament. Of course, the best bet of the tournament again was to lay England to do anything reasonably useful. But in reality, we should have all been on Costa Rica instead. But the returns here show …
Bournemouth Bonus
News today that Southampton are having a summer sale and have raided the silver in the cupboard to let another two players leave. Though it was to be said, for good money.
Players come and go and one season doesn’t make a star. But Lallana has been with Saints for ages and is worthy of a rating. Lambert deserves to join him at Liverpool and is getting on a bit, but well respected.
Practical upshot of this news: –
(1) …
The trading dead zone
It doesn’t happen often, but now and again all things conspire to produce a dead zone in the markets. We are currently in that dead zone.
First off, this relates to the racing markets. Racing markets are seasonal and peak and trough around major meetings. The last was, obviously, Ascot. So you can get a trough before a major meeting, but you almost certainly get one after it.
Summer racing can be a bit weak as there are more meetings …
Pre match volume at the World Cup
Just cut some data on the pre-match volume at the world cup and thought I would share it with you.
The chart is looking at what percentage of volume arrives when, represented as a percentage. So all matches ‘end’ with 100% of volume at the start of the match. Y axis is percentage, X axis time in minutes before the start of the match.
You can see both graphs are pretty similar but there is a lot more money earlier …
Pre match trading at the World Cup
You could be forgiven for thinking that trading on football is all about somehow anticipating something that’s going to happen in play. But if you follow my tweets you will see I’ve been banging some decent totals before the off.
I explained this in a previous post, but it’s worth noting again that if you are prepared to put the effort in and have a bit of patience, it’s perfectly possible to trade before the off successfully. I’ll be …
Profiting from Lay the draw – before the off!
A curious episode in the annals of sports trading this week. No, not another England fail at a major tournament but an opportunity to profit, with a bit of foresight.
With Italy due to play Costa Rica and hold England hopes alive I was browsing the various scenarios in a similar manner to the way I did at the end of the EPL season.
I posted some comments on the forum where I was looking at the prospect of …
Trading World Cup football
What an exciting start to the world cup so far! I was discounting a drab, dull and tight affair; but it’s not been too bad to be honest and the Spain / Netherlands match was amazing. What a special goal from Van Persie. Big winner from that match may actually turn out to be Man Utd I suspect!
I’m easing myself into the tournament from a trading perspective. After all it’s been four years since the last one. You also …
Champions League Final stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Real Madrid will look to claim the elusive ‘Decima’ on Saturday night when they face city rivals Atletico in Lisbon. Xabi Alonso is suspended for Real with Asier Illarramendi expected to deputise and Isco on standby to play if Karim Benzema or Cristiano Ronaldo are not fit to start. Atletico, meanwhile, have …
FA Cup Fi-nil, Some interesting statistics
So the FA Cup final is upon us and, rather predictably, the final has delivered us two premiership teams. But what will the match deliver, is that going to be as predictable as well? I’ve delved back over a number of years to see if I can unlock some prevailing trends.
At first hand you can see that the final looks uncompetitive, Arsenal are heavy favourites to lift the cup. But as history has shown us, the FA Cup is …
Premier League Final Day Stats – last 15 years
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League Final Day Stats – last 15 years
- Backing every home team would have given a +6.2% profit over the 150 matches
- There have been 34 matches where the home side has been a 2.0-2.5 favourite (Sunderland, West Brom) with those teams winning 56% of matches and the games averaging 3.18
Weekend Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Newcastle v Cardiff
- 8 of Newcastle’s last 10 home games against bottom-six teams have had at least 3 goals
- Newcastle have lost 5 of their last 8 home matches against bottom-six teams
- Cardiff have drawn the first half in 9 of their last 16 away matches
Stoke v Fulham
- Stoke have picked
Estimating correct score odds
In this video I discuss a simplistic approach to estimating correct score odds by deriving them from the match odds markets. You can do this automatically in Bet Angel. There are several layers and depths you can get to with pricing models and this is a fairly simple ‘top level’ model that is easy to understand but is not particularly refined.
For clarity I’ve also included a market where this model is not appropriate and where you should use a …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Liverpool v Chelsea
Liverpool have won 11 consecutive matches to take a commanding lead in the title race. With Chelsea’s chances having been all but finished last weekend with defeat to Sunderland they are now expected to rest several players ahead of next week’s Champions League second leg.
However, Chelsea’s …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Aston Villa v Fulham
- Aston Villa have just the 18th best home record this season – last term they had the 17th best
- Since 2008/09, 8 of the 9 meetings between these sides have had fewer than 3 goals
- Fulham have lost the 2nd half in 10 of their
Paris St-G vs Mourinho
Some clever mind games going on this week by the Chelsea manager in preparation for this match. From a market perspective it’s basically two evenly matched teams with Paris having home advantage. My guess is that Chelsea will be keen to keen the goal tally against as low as possible so I suspect a defensive approach given their ‘lack of a striker’.
The stats reflect what I’ve said above, so a difficult call really.
Paris St-G vs. Chelsea
We looked …
Mission impossible for Man Utd?
An intriguing tie at Old Trafford and one that Man Utd can’t afford to lose. You would expect that United must win by two to stand any chance of qualifying with the return leg still to come. ‘Dir Roten’ will be well aware of that and I suspect they will be happy to sit back and wait for Utd to make a mistake at first. An away goal would make it incredibly hard for United to qualify so I reckon …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Crystal Palace v Chelsea
- Palace have picked up just 1 point from 14 games against the top 9 this season and they’ve scored just 2 goals in the process
- 9 of Palace’s last 11 home matches have had fewer than 3 goals
- 7 of Chelsea’s last 9 wins have been by at
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Cardiff City v Liverpool
- Since 2010/11 Liverpool have lost 7 of their 10 trips to promoted teams while 8 have had at least 3 goals
- 13 of Liverpool’s last 16 away matches have had at least 3 goals, with 10 having 4 or more
- Liverpool have scored before half-time in an incredible
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Hull v Man City
- Hull have lost 4 of 6 home matches this season against the current top nine
- Hull have been level at half-time in 7 of their last 9 home matches
- Man City have won 4 of their last 5 away matches whilst scoring 14 times
- 10 of Man City’s
Sunday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Serie A: Napoli v Roma (Sun, 19:45)
Napoli have slipped six points behind Roma following a run of just two wins in their last seven games. In the same time Roma have conceded just once and won five times. However, Roma’s form on the road is less impressive as they’ve scored just …
Saturday Soccer Stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Fulham v Chelsea:
- Fulham have lost their last six home games against top-six team including 4 defeats without scoring
- 6 of Chelsea’s last 8 wins have come to nil, including 3 1-0 scores
- This fixture has had just 25 goals in the last 12 seasons with 8 of 12 matches having
Similar matches
When looking at matches like this evening’s champions league, I’ll often look at matches that had similar characteristics in the past. You would have seen me post up information on previous posts. For example, in the Man Utd match this evening my stats threw up the following: –
The market is forecasting 2.39 goals. Historically there have been 2.18 goals in similar matches according to our database. The market is pricing over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38. Historically 33.3% …
Saturday Soccer stats
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Chelsea v Everton:
- Everton have scored in each of their last 9 matches against Chelsea
- Chelsea have recorded 7 2-1 wins in their last 21 home matches including 4 in their last 7 hosting top-half teams
- Everton have kept just one clean sheet in their last 11 matches
West Brom v …
Another way to trade a football match
In a recent blog post I talked about how team news can affect the price of matches before the off. Here is the link: –
https://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/2014/01/08/trading-team-news-football-matches/
But today generated a different sort of opportunity due to the unfortunate events in the Urkraine.
Due to uncertainty about the security issues of playing the Ukraine, Dynamo Kiev vs Valencia was moved from Ukraine to Cyprus. No such fears appear to be blighting the Spurs match.
If you are at home the …
Liverpool vs Arsenal
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Liverpool v Arsenal (Sat, 12:45)
Arsenal, in recent seasons, have been characterised by their awful record against the league’s other top teams. In the four seasons prior to this they lost 12 and won only two of 20 away matches against other top-six finishers, while their equivalent home record of …
Man City vs Chelsea
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Man City v Chelsea (Mon, 20:00)
Man City turned on the style at White Hart Lane to move to the top of the table and it’s clear that Chelsea are second favourites with the bookies, but a defeat here will leave them six points adrift with a vastly inferior goal …
Pre Match football trading
In the absence of racing today I’ll be dipping into Kempton to have a look this evening, though I doubt I’ll trade it, and I’ll also be welcoming the premier league football into my arms.
Football was one of the first markets I actively traded on Betfair and I still do it today. Trading before the match starts allows me to get off to a head start on things and, if necessary, carry over the profit to play around with …
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