Tag: football
Merseyside Derby
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League: Liverpool v Everton (Tue, 20:00)
The first Merseyside derby of the season was a 3-3 thriller and with both teams still occupying positions in the top six and separated by just one point this is one of the biggest meetings between these teams in years.
Liverpool have won 10 of …
The £16m football accumlator
After a busy week I’ve been catching up on email and reading through some reports and stuff. I’m a little late but spotted this and thought I’d share it.
“Online Sportsbook has continued to show strong wagering growth, up 48% in the first two weeks of 2014. However, football results in week 2 were highly unfavourable with an unusually high number of odds-on favourites winning. Driven by the impact of this on our otherwise very attractive accumulator business, we recorded …
Sunday football previews
Chelsea v Man Utd (Sun, 16:00)
The first meeting between these teams this season was a drab nil-nil affair that is probably best forgotten. With Arsenal and Man City both hosting bottom-six teams this weekend Chelsea will need to win to stay within three points of the lead, while United know they cant afford to drop too many more points. So hopefully the significance of the game creates a bit more excitement.
Chelsea are in decent form having won their …
Trading team news on football matches
I’m looking at the Man City and West Ham match this evening. I see City are 1/5 on for the win! The big question I am asking myself at this moment in time is, what teams will walk onto the pitch this evening?
I trade a lot of football before the match starts. Why? Well if I do anything in-play then trading before the off gives me some leeway to what I want to do with a strategy in-play. …
Variability of football, the tipsters nightmare
Here is a very easy puzzle for you to solve. Your friend asks you to forecast the result of a football match.
The scenario is quite simple: –
Team A Form
Hasn’t lost at home this year and is unbeaten run to 10 games. They have only conceded 16 goals in 17 games. They have lost just two of their last 36 home games (W24 D10 L2) and are 4th in the league.
Team B Form
Has no wins in …
Mission impossible
One look at the racing card this morning and the music from mission impossible should have started running through your head.
Even with two meetings abandoned there are still a total of 11 meetings in the UK and Ireland today and a total of 720 runners over 72 races.
The problem you have on days like this is that the races fall all over each other and before one has finished another has already started. They are also generally lower …
Player absence and team performance in football
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
PLAYER ANALYSIS
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean. N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
[Peter – Based upon my research over many …
Sunday match previews
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Please check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Sunday Match Previews
Fulham v Aston Villa (Sun 13:30)
Fulham maintained their record of scoring in every home game this season on Wednesday. Unfortunately, two late goals consigned them to a ninth defeat in 11 home games. At the same time, Aston Villa were winning at Southampton despite having just 23% of the …
Weekend player analysis
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Please check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Player analysis
Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean.
N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.
West Brom v Norwich
Anthony Pilkington, Midfielder, Norwich
Anthony Pilkington …
How did the world cup draw affect your teams chance?
Money talks and as the World Cup draw was made, the market moved as people discounted a favorable or unfavorable draws. But for whom and how much?
The big winners were Argentina as the market shifted nearly 4% in their favour. Was England’s draw so bad? They slipped from 28 to 30 in decimal odds, only an decline of 0.25% in implied probability terms. They had little change, they have slightly less. Spain suffered the most as their chance of …
Do teams perform better or worse after European games?
Kindly brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs.
European hangovers?
At the start of last season we analysed the impact of European games on teams’ following domestic matches. What we found was that backing teams playing at home after an away trip in Europe was a potentially profitable strategy.
When removing games where teams faced a knock-out game in Europe for their next match (i.e. their domestic match was sandwiched between two European knockout matches) …
Europa league goal ratings
I like the Europa league, lots of matches split into two groupings. Though the liquidity can be a little light on certain matches. I like the range of matches though that are variable and often give you a chance to average out a strategy.
Tonight I’ll be keeping an eye on Spurs to see how they perform after there thrashing at the weekend. You would be surprised what clues you can pick up from watching how teams interact, perform and …
Champions league goal ratings
Goals ratings for this evening’s matches, projected variance to long term average. Ranked from most goals to least: –
Real Madrid vs. Galatasaray – 136%
Man City vs. Plzen – 132%
Juventus vs. FC Copenhagen – 128%
Paris St-G vs. Olympiakos – 114%
CSKA Moscow vs. B Munich – 114%
Shakhtar vs. Sociedad – 110%
Leverkusen vs. Man Utd – 102%
Anderlecht vs. Benfica – 98%
I have priced in 24 goals this evening.
Why friendlies can be a trading minefield
I wont be actively trading the international friendlies this evening. There are many things I can predict about how a football match will pan out, but doing this on friendlies is much harder and a bit more random. Basically I don’t know if I have an edge.
Friendlies, especially like those tonight, are for managers to try a few things out. Shove some fresh talent onto the pitch and see how they perform. Change shape, try a few tactics and …
Europa league ratings – 20:05 kick offs
I’ve priced in 33 goals in this batch of matches. Ranked from most goals to least, expected variation to long term average.
Tottenham vs. Sheriff Tiraspol – 138%
Az Alkmaar vs. Shakhter Karagandy – 123%
Sevilla vs. Slovan Liberec – 118%
Lazio vs. Apollon L. – 112%
Rapid Vienna vs. Genk – 106%
Estoril vs. Freiburg – 105%
Thun vs. Dinamo Kiev – 101%
Legia Warsaw vs. Trabzonspor – 97%
Maccabi Haifa vs. PAOK – 97%
Rijeka vs. Lyon – …
Champions league ratings for Wednesday
Excluding the early kick off.
Barcelona vs. AC Milan – 131%
Atl Madrid vs. Austria Vienna – 130%
Dortmund vs. Arsenal – 125%
Chelsea vs. Schalke – 110%
Napoli vs. Marseille – 109%
FC Basel vs. Steaua Bucharest – 108%
Ajax vs. Celtic – 103%
I’ve priced in 21 goals this evening.
Champions league ratings for Tuesday
Expected variation to average of goals scored. Most goals to least.
Plzen vs. B Munich – 137%
Paris St-G vs. Anderlecht – 129%
Man City vs. CSKA Moscow – 128%
Juventus vs. Real Madrid – 118%
Shakhtar vs. Leverkusen – 114%
FC Copenhagen vs. Galatasaray – 107%
Sociedad vs. Man Utd – 102%
Olympiakos vs. Benfica – 93%
I’m penciling in around 24 goals this evening.
England Expects – Another draw?
I’ll be watching but not trading tonight for the world cup qualifiers. As a rule of thumb I can’t trade something when I am emotionally attached to it. Tonight I’ll shall no doubt be shouting, moaning, directing and heading the ball at various points. I think I’d class that as an emotional attachment!
I’ll still do some stuff before the off and will probably carry that in play, but it terms of ‘hard core’ trading that can take a back …
Early kick off – Match preview
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post.
Man City v Everton
While David Moyes’ first Manchester derby at The Etihad turned into a nightmare, his Everton team always had an excellent record here. With Roberto Martinez having good memories of playing City from last season’s FA Cup final, can The Toffees maintain their unbeaten start?
Everton are the only unbeaten side in the Premier League but City have comfortably won all three of …
Goals, Goals, Goals….
If you search the blog for ‘Europa league ratings’ you should find a bundle of comments on previous Europe leagues . I don’t tend to post them much now as I never really got much feedback. I’m happy to post them regularly again if people want, I use them and it should be of use to others.
Number of goals
The thing I like about the Europe league at this stage is that it allows you to aggregate risk significantly. …
Automating your football trading
For those who have not yet tried the advanced automation feature within Bet Angel, football offers several opportunities to try this out. If you are unfamiliar with any features in Bet Angel, try them out in practice mode.
In this example I am going to show you how to automate a simple trade on the Over/Under 2.5 market and green out for a profit. I’ll explain why this works and things to look our for.
The Over/Under 2.5 goals …
Relegation & promotion markets and over reaction
I’ve been active in the promotion and relegation market for a few years now, but this year is a good example of why.
I’m always amazed at how volatile the market can be throughout the season. This year looks like an interesting year at the top, but I hadn’t imagined just how much prices would fluctuate so early in the season. I’m mean it’s only just started and yet people are heavily discounting something that won’t happen till next May.…
Manchester Derby – Match preview
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post, E&OE and all that. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information. Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.…
Authorities close in on match fixing king
News this morning of many arrests in Singapore and the possibility that the leader of a global fixing ring, Dan Tan, is in custody.
If you want to understand why sports betting often gets such a bad press then here is the story that should explain why for you: –
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/dan-tan-the-man-who-fixed-football-8554751.html
I find it frustrating that corruption exists in sport and I believe its one of the reasons why if you manage to make some money in this market then …
Will the premier league goal drought continue?
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.
ANALYSIS – WILL THE …
The affect of the international break
First in a regular series of posts from our friends over at Football Form Labs. Endorsement follows….
Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.…
Why the Rickie Lambert story is so rare
I remember being a small boy watching my local team, smoke wafting in my face, pie in hand until a crowd surge would dump it unceremoniously on the terrace! But hey, I’m showing my age.
I couldn’t help but let out a cheer when Lambert scored on his England debut as it’s a great story and it’s also something that gives people hope. When I stood on the terraces all those years ago I felt that if I tried hard …
Adding multiple soccer markets using Guardian
Bet Angel has so many useful features that many of them are hidden away and not immediately obvious.
For example, did you know you can quickly add all ‘Match odds’ markets for football (soccer) games happening on a particular date in the Guardian tool? And if you only want to bet on the premiership games, these are easy to add too.
Multi market trading is in high demand and the Guardian tool within Bet Angel is a great way of …
The footy season – My approach
Now the football is about to start again, here is an insight into how I approach the whole season.
Off-season
During off season I am most active on research and new information for the next season. I gather a huge amount of data during the season and during the off season I analyse it to take ideas forward to the next season. Same story this year.
I started analysing football matches in the 80’s, so I tend to focus on …
Pre-Season Football
Not much to be read into pre season friendlies TBH. As a manager you are looking at new players, either acquired or coming up through the ranks and assessing things for the next season. Results are not paramount, injuries are and when I looked into pre-season friendlies a few years ago there seemed to be little correlation to the start of the new season.
What I do look for though is new transfers, which does give a clue to performances …
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