Tag: football
Extra time and the ‘to qualify’ market
At last this week, I have finally got the chance to have a play around in the ‘to qualify’ markets in extra time.
These are some of my favourite in-play markets on footy because you can, to a certain extent, frame your upside and downside risk. The downside will always be a goal, but the upside is relatively neat and frequent on both teams.
As the teams play out extra time, if the match remains level, the odds on either …
Italy vs Italy
I looked long and hard at this evening’s match in Kiev and I, like the market, am finding it difficult to split the result.
I think the main reason for this is that I think both sides will cancel each other out. We have become used to Italian football being based around defense counter attacking play. Now England seems to have adopted this style as well. That seems to position the match for a low scoring nail-biter. Cue, a dramatic …
England v Ukraine
Since 1990 England have won 5/9 final group games while they are unbeaten since 1996 in nine matches against teams ranked 20-40 with six wins and eight of the nine matches finished with fewer than three goals. In group game three there have been 43 matches where a team has been ranked 11-30 places higher and that side has won 27 (63%) times. Moreover, this improves to a W15-D3-L4 record when they have won their previous match.
Information provided by …
Sweden v England
Sweden’s defeat against Ukraine means a result here is essential and they will probably need a significant improvement. Lower ranked teams that have lost their previous match and are playing a side coming off a draw have lost 7/11 Euro group stage matches with 6/11 having -2.5 goals including all five second group games.
11 of Sweden’s 19 tournament matches since 2000 have had -2.5 goals while they’ve drawn six of their last eight group matches against higher ranked teams …
What we learnt about England
It’s always worth looking at Statistics to tell you what really went on in a football match, rather than what you think you saw. So with that in mind here is a round up of some stats on the England match: –
First stop has to be be ‘fourfourtwo’ as it contains the most comprehensive and objective analysis of the match. Click here to read it in its full glory. There is an app you can download from iTunes which …
England expects….. Not very much
So here we are at the dawn of the Euro 2012 championships, full of hope optimism and … well, to be honest, if you are English you may be dreading it. So it reserve the optimism for other nationalities.
This must be the first tournament where universal optimism for England from English fans has vanished. Each tournament England fans generally go from skeptical to optimistic as the tournament approaches and the generally feeling on day one is ‘You know what, …
Di Matteo probably shouldn’t get the job
Congratulations to Chelsea on a remarkable champions league campaign. The campaign showed up the wonderful variability that is a football. Di Matteo and Chelsea must be on top of the world this morning, but if Chelsea are to build on this they need to start thinking about a new path for the future.
I see the win last night as the culmination of a very long campaign for Chelsea, but increased competition in the premiership means it’s time to build …
Champions league final
Is Chelsea’s name written on the cup?
Before we start, don’t forget to have a play with Soccer Mystic the unique profiling tool contained within Bet Angel.
It never pays to be emotional about anything that you are trying to make money on, and you could be excused for looking for a fairy tale tonight. But the reality is that Chelsea have a tough ask this evening. On the flip side, as we have seen recently, anything can happen …
Next manager markets
Not so long ago I asked for more next manager markets. We now have three in play at once!
We have managerial vacanies at West Brom, Liverpool and Aston Villa . The interesting this about these markets is that there are a number of mutually exclusive outcomes. For example, Roberto Martinez can not be manager of all three, so two of his prices in the other markets must be false; but which ones?
I don’t actually try and make special …
Some key stats from Man City vs QPR
Well that was an interesting match wasn’t it? I went from thinking ‘I’d hate to be a Man City fan right now’ to ‘I’d love to be a Man City right now’, all in the space of a few minutes. You go all season without losing at home then almost blow it on what should have been one of the easiest matches of the lot. It was like Barcelona vs Chelsea but in reverse.
In total the match odds market …
A tale of last day relegation
Last day of the premiership today, hoping for a few twists and turns on the last day.
I recently watched Southampton get promoted to the Premiership. It’s the end of a seven year wait and has finally exorcised the ghost of relegation from seven years ago. But for me it also has been a point of closure after I sent my team down seven years ago! Well I say I sent my team down, I didn’t, but it felt like …
Cardiff fans turn red over blue
Continuing the blue theme from yesterday. Cardiff fans up in arms as the bluebirds look like they will be forced to change colour. Full story: –
However, the owner may have a point. I pointed out some scientific research on a previous blog post. One element of this was looking at the effect of red and blue and how it affects sports performance or the interpretations of officials in sports tournaments. The results were fascinating.
See the original blog …
Has the FA Cup lost its appeal?
Took some time out last Saturday to trade the FA CUP final pre-off. I was expecting a vibrant, lively market but ended up with the opposite and traded out for a small loss. The racing was yielding much more.
I was surprised at how little matched bet turnover there was. At the start of the FA CUP final there was matched bet volume of £3,533,632. On Tuesday night the same teams met again in the premier league and the matched …
Chelsea vs Newcastle stats
Here are some stats I have gathered for this evenings game: –
Chelsea have scored an average of 2.29 goals per home game and have failed to score on 6% of occasions. Chelsea have conceded an average of 1.24 goals per game and have kept a clean sheet on 29% of occasions. On average they score a total of +1.06 more goals than their opponents at home and each match has contained an average of 3.53 goals. When playing at …
Vital stats for the Manchester derby
Top Level
Man City are currently ranked 1st for their league form at home this season. They have won 94% of home games this season, drew 6% and lost no games. They are currently unbeaten at home. Man Utd are currently ranked 2nd for their league form away this season. They have won 78% of away games, drew 11% and lost 11% of games.
Number of goals scored
Man City have scored an average of 3.00 goals per home game …
More next manager markets, please
Not so long ago we bagged a really nice profit on the next Wolves manager market. For some time it looked like the world and his dog wanted Harry Redknapp to get the England job and it seemed a sensible appointment. You could have ad ‘arry to lay to 1.27 at best. But the FA, as they have proven on many occasions, are not the general population. They are a largely politcial entity.
Probably the broadest hint that Hodgson was …
End of season Italian football
As I have pointed out before, end of season Italian football can throw up some strange situations and odds. Today we have Atalanta vs Fiorentina where the draw was matched around 2.36-2.40 before the off. Currently it is 1-0 at half time, equaliser anybody? TBH though it doesn’t look like this match is headed for a draw at the moment.
Maybe it’s my imagination, but if feels like there are less of these matches this year than last, unless …
Last day nerves, apathy & the weather
When we approach the end of season crunch games, when relegation or promotion can be decided on the last game, look out for shocks. Also, in the mid division stuff, where there is little to play for; also look to the outsider. It’s at moments like these that you can find value in the markets. Normal statistical analysis becomes much less reliable at these points.
Look for early signs that a team that ‘has’ to do something is showing nerves. …
Lay the draw – Revisited
Whenever you look at all strategies, no matter how complex, there is always some simple underlying key metric that is essential to whether a strategy works or not. This is also true in the case of ‘lay the draw’.
I’ve recently been looking again at value backing. There is a little more depth behind what I am doing, but one of the key issues you face if you pursue a value strategy is deviation from mean. You may be able …
Champions league quarter finals
Looking forward to tonights match between Chelsea and Benfica. It has a nice feel to it. I had a good result on the Barca match last night, so hoping for a good evening.
Benfica must score to have any hope of going through, Chelsea are much improved since the sacking of AVB and the players must be feeling the pull of a final; but they still lack some consistency.
Comments on the forum made me look again at this match. …
Trading football at random
If you trade something at random you will break even less commission? Is this statement true or false? If a football team is priced at 2.00 it has a 50% chance of winning a match, therefore you can’t exceed that, can you?
One curious thing you find if you start dabbling around at random in the markets, is the fact there are many situations in many markets when it’s possible to make money even if you don’t do anything clever. …
Europa league matches
Both Manchester teams being in the Europa league has injected a bit of life into the Carling Cup of Europe it seems.
I quite like the look of this evenings matches. The market is forecasting around 21-22 goals this evening. SP Lisbon vs Man City is the pick of the bunch from the 18:00 kick offs. So I am secretly hoping that City score first but struggle to break down their opponents from there on in. Despite my wish, I’ll …
Which match?
I’m looking at three different matches this evening.
First you have Barcelona vs Leverkusen, Barca 1.17 to win and 3-1 up from the away leg, a formality. But there is little incentive for Barcelona to go for and nothing for Leverkusen to lose so an interesting set up. Barca should win easily, but the lack of incentive gives an opportunity for a slip up.
Spurs vs Stevenage is a different kettle of fish (love that phrase). Spurs have a great …
The 49 bets
Here is something interesting. Well I thought it was interesting anyhow, so I thought I would share it.
On Saturday I was working a position into the Liverpool vs Arsenal match. I’ve often maintained there can’t be many big gamblers / traders out there as I rarely see big amounts in the market. OK there are reasons why I may not be able to see them, but even then, I rarely see anything that looks like a bigger player.
In …
Tonights football opportunties
I like the look of the champions league tonight, but I can’t trade it as I’ll be out watching the football instead. I’ve been doing a lot more of that this year and really enjoyed it. What’s life if you can’t enjoy the fruits of your labour?
The Arsenal vs AC Milan really catches my eye because both teams have little to lose. Arsenal wont gain any credibility by defending and will have to have a go. With Van …
Is trading football the new racing?
Horse racing markets are popular with traders because of the large amounts of volatility, but trading football on betting exchanges hasn’t traditionally been seen as a place to get large risk free swings in odds. Things appear to be changing however.
I have recently been conducting some re-reseach on pre-off movements on football. I do this sort of thing on all sports, revisiting previous research. But on conducting the research this time around I noticed a change. The football pre-off …
International football friendlies
I wont be actively trading the international friendlies this evening. There are many things I can predict about how a football match will pan out but doing this on friendlies is much harder and a bit more random. Basically I don’t know if I have an edge.
I also have this issue that I don’t have enough data to these types of matches to make a confident judgement. So I will pass on the opportunity to do so.
This is …
Carling cup final – Please read the rules!
Whenever the Carling Cup final comes around I am always reminded of the importance of reading the rules in a market. Certain positive positions, things that seem too good to be true can suddenly be exposed as your worst nightmare! But as always with betting exchanges there are two sides to the coin, you can profit from understanding the rules better than others.
Before we get to the main point, I can give you a more recent example; the next …
Creative football trading
The great thing about football markets is that they are very predictable, in an unpredictable way!
Goals are few and far between and occur randomly but with bias throughout the match. But because there are so few goals on average, that makes it easy to figure out what you should do when one goes in. There are only a small number of combinations to work with.
Lots of people focus on just one match, research it to death and try …
Back to the desk
Back behind my trading desk today after a few days trying to recover from this illness. Still nowhere near 100% but I just hate doing nothing. I’d rather be distracted by something other than the sight of a sick bowl! I actually find trading quite fun, so I can still do it and mess around with the numbers, even when I’m not on form. It’s definitely the challenge I enjoy more than the result, though that helps!
The Wolves next …
Connect
Connect with us on the following social media platforms.