Tag: forecasting
Predicting the winner of the US Open
It’s not just the players that are complaining about the scheduling of the US Open Tennis. I can’t trade the final tonight as it’s my wedding anniversary today. I’ve been married even longer than I’ve been on Betfair, but one benefit of that is the next generation of traders is following just behind me!
I saw this interesting BBC article this morning and it talks about the data collection that IBM do as part of their deal to these tournaments: …
The thin line between individual skill in Tennis
If you have been active on Wimbledon these past two weeks you would have seen some great matches. But you should have also seen something else, maybe without realising it.
Often you see an outsider really battle away at a heavy odds on favourite, maybe even winning the first set, but despite this their odds don’t seem to come in that much. If you look at Murray’s match against Janowicz, Janowicz was at one set all and leading 4-1. His …
Spain will win
While browsing the other night I found this really interesting peice: –
https://kn.theiet.org/magazine/issues/1008/predicting-football-1008.cfm
It’s quite rare to find some decent stuff on the Internet. It’s amazing how many experts are out there, despite there actually being very few people who can claim to be true experts. My definition, somebody who is willing to back up their rhetoric with hard cash!
Anyhow, this is an interesting peice and would have made an even better read before the world cup!
A bit of a eureka moment..
For some time I’ve been working on a modelling spreadsheet. On and off I’ve dabbled with it for a few years when time permitted. The aim is to produce a better tool for forecasting value. Predicting the future is always tough and I’ve been searching for a solution to a complicated forecasting problem. I’ve got close, but not enough for a clear ‘victory’.
Sat in bed on Saturday evening with my iPad, I was getting a bit bored of the …
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