Tag: goal
Betfair trading – Football trading – Who scores first?
Watch a football match and often you will see the outsider team take a ‘shock’ lead according to most sources, but how often does the away team score first?
Goals
Football is a, generally, a low scoring contest. Not only that, you can have a lot of shots and still not score. The chance of a goal from a statistical perspective is interesting because goals are ‘rare’. This lends itself to seeing away teams taking a ‘shock’ lead more often …
Champions league goal ratings
Goal ratings for this evening, projected variance to long term average: –
Porto vs. Austria Vienna – 125%
Dortmund vs. Napoli – 123%
Arsenal vs. Marseille – 122%
Ajax vs. Barcelona – 115%
Steaua Bucharest vs. Schalke – 104%
FC Basel vs. Chelsea – 101%
Zenit St Petersburg vs. Atl Madrid – 100%
Celtic vs. AC Milan – 95%
I’ve priced in 23 goals.
Will the premier league goal drought continue?
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
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ANALYSIS – WILL THE …
Football trading – Who scores first?
A decent question to ask about a football match.
I first asked this question back in the early 80’s to help resolve the problem of forecasting draws. I knew that if the outsider scored first the chance of a draw was higher, but just how often did this happen?
The answer was a lot more than I imagined. But slowly I began to gain an appreciation of why. Over the full 90 minutes one teams advantage tends to bear out …
Incentive to score
That one word is how I would describe the next two evenings worth champions league matches. Some teams will have a big incentive to score, others to not lose and others no incentive to do anything at all.
All the above will most likely throw up some of the best opportunities you will see in-play in this quality of match. It’s a bit like the knockout stage which returns in February. Early group stages can be tepid affairs but the …
188ft headed goal
One of the things I like about football is it’s randomness. There are predictable elements to it, but goals occur over a wide average and are difficult to pinpoint precisly. This makes it good for certain types of strategies. If you want an example of the unpredictability of goals here is a classic: –
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15145980
Who scores first in a football match?
When trading football, whatever strategy you use, it tends to gravitate to the key question, who scores first? (You could add when to that as well!)
I first asked this question in the early 80’s and worked out how to calculte this and most likely time for a goal. I recently revisited some old material and transplated it to today’s markets so see if much had changed. Not a great deal has changed to be honest and the stats are …
Stunning Scottish goal
Currently preparing for this evenings slew of International matches and reviewed what little action there was last night. This included a stunning goal by the Scottish under 21 team against Iceland. Have a look at this: –
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