Tag: horse
Let’s hope the Derby is this exciting
I’ve taken a diversion from just just posting an image of a result to putting some detail into events at the Oaks today. It was such a fascinating market from beginning to end.
The first thing that happened was ‘Legatissimo’ contracted quite heavily, but the pictures showed that it wasn’t enjoying it’s journey to post, so it looked a obvious lay. Slowly but surely the market reacted to it’s behaviour. This generally got worse till the horse cleared the main …
York Dante Metting
After a successful Chester meeting we roll onto York for the Dante meeting this week.
The York card looks OK but the other stuff on the card today looks a little ‘testing’. For a direct comparison look at the prize money. Bath has a grand total of £19.5k, York £185k. I’ll be cautious and use small stakes at Kempton as a result,
As we move through the early part of the flat turf season, the early part of the week …
Trading Cheltenham
This year I’ve decided to upload a video to narrate some of the stats and detail behind how Cheltenham trades. It seems much easier to express and emphasise points and show a number of things on a video that you can’t do in text. So I’ve created the longest video yet and uploaded it for you!
For those of you that want the text I’ve prepared a long document for you here. It should be of interest one way or …
Melbourne Cup meeting – Day three
I was going to post up a breakdown of the big day, but the unfortunate circumstances surrounding the post race period put paid to that. Couldn’t bring myself to post enthusiastically about proceedings given that. In case you don’t know what happened the BBC has detailed the unfortunate set of circumstances.
From a trading perspective things went pretty well. I don’t expect to set records on every major race meeting now, due to the time I’ve been in the …
Salisbury
Whenever I see Salisbury on the card it reminds me of a document that Betfair published many moons ago.
I saw Salisbury on the card today and the same bell rang in my head, but also a bit of alarm at the two and three runner races on the card! How poor is that? But back to the main topic.
Back in 2004 Betfair issued a document that actually clearly laid out what a market looked like. In the document …
St Leger meeting
For some background to this meeting have a read of this wiki link.
I must admit, from a trading perspective, I haven’t got a great deal out of this meeting in the past. So I tend to not set high expectations only be disappointed. I tend to treat it as a decent meeting, but not something I expect to get anything stunning from. I see some people are talking it up, but that just shows they haven’t traded it …
Ebor or Ebore?
Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week.
The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. It should be better than what we have been seeing recently though.
Traditionally …
Goodwood so far
I think it has played out similar to what I imagined. People always over-hype Goodwood and as a consequence the markets often fill up with money that nobody takes.
If you look at the detail you can see this showing up in the stats. The average queue size at Goodwood is twice its normal size, but the fill rate is about normal. This adds up to taking a little more than twice as normal to fill. The longer something takes …
Trading Goodwood
From a trading perspective I like multi day high quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to the month.
As you may know these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood or anybody else fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very differently. Goodwood benefits from decent volume but it’s not as much as some …
The Oaks – Betfair’s first ever market
So today we reach the Oaks and tomorrow the Derby, when the summer racing really starts to step up a gear. The start of June means Royal Ascot is just around the corner.
If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at Epsom was Betfair’s first market way back when they started in June 2000. But it was a little later that year, on June 11th. Mark Davis reminisced on his blog about it. I …
Black Caviar triumphs again
Black Caviar clocked up win number 25 out of 25 this morning at Randwick racecourse in Sydney.
She strode to an easy victory in the Group One TJ Smith Stakes. Her appearance completely overshadowed the running of the $1.5 million Australian Derby. Priced at 1.18 she accounted for £1.74m of £1.76m in matched bets on the race.
More speculation around her possible appearance again at Ascot still hangs in the air, as does the prospect of her meeting up with …
Not bad for a winter Tuesday
First snow of the winter arrived here this morning and I had to dodge in and out of various potential mishaps on school run this morning.
Trading winter racing markets
Winter in the racing markets can be a bit bleak. A chunk of the races can be fairly poor affairs and that’s if the racing goes ahead at all! My overall potential drops quite significantly at this time of year on the racing, I typically see a decline in the …
Cheltenham Open
At last, some quality comes back into the jumps season!
With the Cheltenham open this weekend we can look forward to the fact that the festival is only four months away! Hey, you need something to look forward to during the, often bleak, winter season.
The Open is a useful meeting and volumes will be higher than normal so it’s an opportunity to get tucked into some decent markets. This isn’t like the Festival though so you shouldn’t get wildly …
St Leger Day
The oldest classic horse race in the world is almost upon us again and while it marks the closing of the flat turf season, tradition dictates that it also marks an upturn in financial markets if folklore is to be believed. “Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger day”
There is a general ‘theory’ that during the summer stocks languish and only when everybody is back to their desk does the market perk up. Here …
Laying on the beach
Laytown – Sounds like a small town where people favour only one side of the book. But its actually a racecourse in Ireland. Since 1876 Laytown has hosted a single annual horse racing meeting on its beach – one of only a couple on sand (held on the beach) race meetings run under official rules of racing in Europe.
The BBC have made it the subject of a documentary, titled Racing the Tide, and have included passages in their …
Goodwood, close but no cigar
So Glorious Goodwood is upon us.
I used to live on the South Coast and Goodwood has always stuck in my memory as a very scenic and entertaining course to visit. Perched just north of Chichester, you can climb Knights Hill and get a great view from which to look down on the course and the wonderful surrounding countryside.
If you fancy a round of Golf, the golf club is only just around the corner and is very enjoyable and …
The Derby on BETDAQ
Last year I consciously decided to allocate a lot more of my time to learning and understanding how the markets on Betdaq work in great depth. No guess for what prompted this! In the past I’d tended to cherry pick markets as it was easy to find markets that were more suitable for my style, but I felt I really should make the effort to work harder on ALL markets.
A year on and I’m active on pretty much all …
Craving more Craven
Stuck in a pretty good performance on the first day of the Craven meeting and was pretty pleased all round with overall performance. Some of the testing I’ve been doing on new ideas came good as well, so I’m really chuffed. The champions league didn’t really through off a quality opportunity last night, but apart from some stuff before the off I didn’t really get that involved. Second legs should be interesting.
I prefer to know whether I’m in a …
Don’t Panic!
This afternoon, for an experiment, I was wired up to a heart rate monitor. It was a test to see how I reacted throughout a busy day and to see what sort of stress I went through. As it turned out it measured a different sort of stress from normal!
The day started as normal and pulled in a couple of OK results. On the approached to race three though something seemed to be going wrong and the response I …
Cheltenham – So nearly a record
Big day today, the iPad three is launched! – LOL – You also have the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Yesterday went much better than I thought. I scoured my notebook from days one and two to give myself the best chance of pulling something out of the hat and did. The markets are very similar to last year in that respect.
I was a bit more aggressive and confident yesterday and that helped a lot. I was also able to read …
Wolverhampton Winners
Two winners at Wolverhampton, one race after another. Have a look at the graphs and see if you can spot the pattern.
Cheltenham day three
Day two of Cheltenham went pretty much to plan.
I did get off to a bad start though, a small profit then a loss of £120 in the second race didn’t put me in the best of moods, but I pulled things around nicely and patched together a string of decent results to end up ahead of last year again. Still short of my best ever, but as I mentioned before, not a surprise.
I am trading both exchanges together …
Cheltenham day two
That was an OK start to Cheltenham. I’d rank it on the better side of the line. OK because I didn’t break any upside records, but OK because I didn’t do so on the downside either!
Volumes waiting to be matched are higher than last year, they are running at around ten times normal week day levels. The rate at which those orders are filling are only six times normal level so there is quite a big gap in the …
Ear plugs for the Cheltenham roar
I’m in a nice relaxed and refreshed mood for the first day of Cheltenham. Last night I used ears plugs so I could be assured of a decent nights sleep. With three children, a decent nights sleep is not always assured.
The first day for Cheltenham is a day of learning for me. Yes I know what I am doing, but I am also really keen to understand what has changed from previous years. We will be gathering data today …
Trading the Gold Cup – Ante post market
I’ve been tracking the Cheltenham Gold Cup ante post market.
Big news today is that Kauto Star is definitely in the race and Grand Crus is headed for the RSA.
We have been tracking top 15 runners and before the announcement they made up 100.2% of the book, after the announcement 100.4%. The big negative was obviously Grand Crus, but Kauto Star only covered half that deficit, with the field making up the rest. Long Run’s odds are unchanged.
In …
Cheltenham by numbers
For those that are not on my mailing list, I prepared and sent out a little peice this weekend called ‘Cheltenham by numbers’. It’s stats based review on the festival.
You can read it by clicking on this link: –
https://www.betangel.com/newsletter/
Is trading football the new racing?
Horse racing markets are popular with traders because of the large amounts of volatility, but trading football on betting exchanges hasn’t traditionally been seen as a place to get large risk free swings in odds. Things appear to be changing however.
I have recently been conducting some re-reseach on pre-off movements on football. I do this sort of thing on all sports, revisiting previous research. But on conducting the research this time around I noticed a change. The football pre-off …
Bank building
February is the quietest month of the year for me. I do around 1/3rd of what I can during the busiest time of the year. So I tend to take some time off during February. A few years ago I was forced to take time off because of a death in the family and I’ve pretty much stuck to that since. The time off that is!
For me this period is about getting some relaxtion in and planning for the …
Bet Angel sponsorship – Win a copy
We are pleased to announce we are sponsoring the entire days racing at Southwell today. Racing starts at 13:20 and finishes at 16:50 with eight races on the card.
For once there is a full days racing in the UK and Ireland. It seems to have been ages since that was last the case, we hope it is a good day for everybody!
We have set up a competition to win a copy of Bet Angel. Just enter your name …
Massive winner at Taunton
One of those great racing moments today when ‘Lights of Broadway’ romped home at Taunton at odds of 810-1000 depending on when you backed it. It SP’d at 810!! Second and third placed horses came in at big odds too meaning it was a monster forecast, but I can’t imagine anybody got it?
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