Tag: horse racing
My lucky day
Nothing lucky about the result which was fine, but it was more the manner in which it was achieved. Often you can wade into a market and everything goes wrong. Nothing works the way it ‘should’ and bad postions get worse and so do good ones. Yesterday was unusual, in that I forcast a poor day but I didn’t really get any significant negatives yesterday. It just seemed that when I got myself into a hole, it quickly offered me …
Crianza
I’ve had a few beers on Crianza this evening after it romped home at Redcar today. Nothing remarkable about a horse winning a race, but Crianza came in at odds of 1000 and I had money on.
It’s the second time I have managed this, the last time was on Bermondsey Bob at Salisbury in August 2008. Therefore I assume the mean return time of this sort of thing happening is around once every two years. The funny thing …
Ascot
It’s that time of year when the Queen nips out the house and down the road to have a fiver or two on a few nags. I’ll also be looking to put a few fivers on them as well, but from behind my desk. When I’ve finished all my work on betting exchanges, maybe I will nip up the road for once! Ascot has always been a key part of the summer racing and it’s no surprise with five days …
Nobody will win as much in 100 years!
If you search this blog you will see the previous post on the Barney Curley gamble. This was a clear cut opportunity, well telegraphed by the market and confirmed by activity and comment in a number of areas. I recorded a trade on a Curley runner for an article that will appear in a month or so, that’s how predictable some of these trades are.
Now we have a full explanation of the detail and planning behind this gamble thanks …
Manic monday
Seven race cards with generally average fodder on display, good luck if you are having a go. My advise if you are, is to try and pick up on clear opportunities. With so many races on clashing it is inevitable that some markets will be rubbish, but hopefully some will get just inside the required sweet spot. With so many on, just ignore the rubbish ones and try and catch some quality opportunities. Good luck!
[EDIT] – Just been checking …
New york racing in jeopardy
Classic joke for a recession, I’m moving to jeopardy, apparantly there are a lot of jobs in jeopardy.
On a more serious note however, the future of horse racing in New York is in jeopardy after the New York Racing Association (NYRA) warned Monday that it may be forced to shut down operations within three weeks, with the company now reliant on money from the state to help it through to the Belmont Stakes next month, the final leg of …
Gamble landed
Not often you will hear me saying that, but when a Barney Curley horse is out and being gambled, you just have to sit up and take notice. Rather than an outright gamble though, it always worth having a go on the trading front. It can be a bit volatile, but it’s often quite clear where the money is going on a Curley horse. Yesterday we saw several horses traded at decent volume from big to much smaller prices. “Agapanthus” …
1000 Guineas
Rather bizarrely I managed to get just over 1000 Guineas in profit on the 2000 Guineas. Does this mean I will get 2000 on the 1000? I doubt it, but it was an excellent day. I just happened to have one of those days where everything just seemed to slot into place. I managed a clean sweep on all 44 races I traded today. It’s so nice to do that, but I think you have to be realistic and accept …
Start of season, end of season
As you are probably aware from my posts, there is nothing more I like that a football match with a strong incentive behind it. At the start of a season, form is difficult to spot early on. Though promotion and relegation isnt’ so tricky. But it’s the end of the season when things really begin to happen. With many matches classed as ‘six pointers’ for one reason or another, this time of year has always been a fertile hunting ground. …
Getting burnt
This title could be a reflection on the weather in the UK at the moment, which is fantastic. Lots of us took advantage in the last couple of weeks to head out with the children during the Easter holidays. As a result, quite a few have a bit of burnt skin thanks to the less than common, warm and persistent sunshine. It’s not unheard of though, as I remember running the London marathon in 1996 when the temperature was 20c, …
A grand grand
Well that is one Grand National that will stick in the memory for a while. McCoy finally landed the one race that had eluded him and I tipped it up! There’s a first and it will probably be the last national tip I’ll ever land. As it is, I think I just created a problem for next year, when all those I told this year return for next years winner. Despite warning them, I am sure they will think there …
Grand National
It’s that once day a year when everybody, even if they don’t like horse racing, has a little flutter on it.
Before I started my career on betting exchanges the Grand National was the only race I really knew anything about. I was aware of the Derby and the St Leger and some of the big meetings, but it was always the Grand National that caught everybody’s attention, including mine. I distinctly remember several successful bets that my mum placed. …
April fools day at Folkstone
Ahh, you can tell the flat season is back. How? Well, when you get days like the one we had this week at Folkstone!
As flat races are over shorter distances all horses have to be loaded into stalls. Well I say all horses, sometimes a horse just wont go into that big metal thing in front of them. Typically it is a small percentage of races, maybe about 1 in 20 where a horse refuses to load and gets …
Cheltenham – Post-mortem
OK, it’s been a little while since Cheltenham finished, but I’ve been very busy on other projects and I have also been having a bit of a break before the start of the flat season proper.
Lets start from a top level. Measuring the activity to post time in the markets, a total of 26 races generated matched bet turnover on Betfair of £84.3m this year. In 2009 it generated £83m, so overall the matched bet turnover was up about …
Richest race in the world
Today sees the worlds richest horse race take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.
I’ve dabbled on the Meydan markets this year and they have been just fine. A very useful addition to the P&L during the tough winter months. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup stands out on it’s own as a race later in the day so that …
Betfair extend cross matching
Betfair today announced that they had extended their cross matching algorithm to include a trail on in-running horse racing markets. Full announcement is detailed below: –
Improved bet matching algorithm trial on today’s in-running markets at Carlisle and Sedgefield
For the win markets on today’s cards at Carlisle and Sedgefield we will be improving our bet-matching algorithm to include cross-selection matching (‘cross-matching’). Cross-matching will only be activated after the markets are turned in-play. Please note that this is just a …
Cheltenham day three
That’s more like it! Today was easily the best day of the week so far, but not without it’s cock ups.
In the first race I was pushing for a decent total, but successfully went in-play, again, when I forgot to SP my final orders in the market, Doh! I had some frantic sorting out to do, but escaped. It was entirely my fault and I felt a bit of a wally. Things got better from there though and I …
Cheltenham day two
Well I don’t think I will reach last years peak after another tougher than average day. I think I have too much ground to make up now in the remaining days. But it’s still going to be a good week, just not as good as it could have been! You can’t win them all.
The difference between yesterday and the Tuesday was that I really struggled to get any traction in the markets. By traction I mean you need to …
Cheltenham day one
Well that was interesting to say the least. Half an hour before the first race of the day my internet connection suddenly goes down. Up till that point it was a carefully planned day, but with that, a chaotic period ensued. The internet going wasn’t a major problem as I have back up plans. I have a laptop with mobile broadband, just in case. But I also have back up locations I can switch to. The chaos was simply that …
Cheltenham
Well it’s here again, but what does it hold in store?
To be honest I have no idea and I try my best not to set any expectations ahead of an event, I just try do my best. It’s nice to have a few clues as to how you are going to trade something, but these big events come around so infrequently you only really know how it ‘s going to behave when you are actually in the thick of …
Madness and wisdom
Are the racing markets becoming more or less volatile?
I can answer that with a definite YES. Yes they are becoming more and less volatile. Let me explain.
A few years ago I could pop an order in the market and wait for it to get filled. Now, if I go into a weaker than average race, like many this week, that doesn’t happen in the same manner anymore. If I get my staking wrong, the market takes one look …
When a negative is a postive
No this isn’t a maths questions, it’s about horses ! See a horse playing up and most people will lay it, feeling that it’s chances of winning the race are decling. That’s probably correct, as a horse that is not behaving itself before the start is unlikely to perform better during the race. That re-adjustment of opinion though is a huge opportunity for the astute trader. Look at the following graph from a race at Southwell last week. As they …
Snow fun anymore
We all love a bit of snow, especially if you have children. But this morning I woke up to yet another dumping of the white stuff on the lawn and my heart sank. I also had to laugh as yesterday the local authority finally cleared our road and we were able to use the car again, albeit for one evening!! Today the road is treacherous again.
I fired up my iPhone racing post app and sure enough, what looked a …
Wacky Wolves
This evening Wolverhampton provided a really interesting finish to my week. In several races the prices were all over the place and there were some huge drifters and steamers. As a result of this and a generally positive day, I managed the unusual feat of eclipsing all the other days of the week put together. Can’t complain, but it’s just very unusual.
The action started early when High Constable moved in from 3’s to 1.50 before the off. That’s a …
Just remarkable
Just watched a horse throw its jockey, break through the barriers from the all weather to the National Hunt course, run the entire length of that course, smash through the barriers on it’s return, continue bolting to the start and guess what? It STILL started a 5f race! If finished 5th out of 7 runners.
I can’t believe they still let this horse run. It’s remarkable that they didn’t really care that much for the horses welfare. I know the …
So close for Kauto
Well, what a race that was. I really though Kauto Star had lost it, but it was always going to be a bob of the head that got it ultimately. The market got the photo finish wrong for once, but I must admit I also thought Kauto Star had lost it.
Benefit of form and horse related knowledge made this a good trade opportunity today. This morning I phoned around a couple of horse racing types and talked to them …
At the adverts..
Hmm, a distinctly poor week ahead by the look of it and today we are ‘treated’ to a day on ‘At the adverts’, err.. ‘At the races’ I mean. At least we can use the red button to watch the build up a bit better, but we are never over the moon when faced with a winter card all on this channel.
On a close look the card doesn’t look terrible but with small fields and long races I doubt …
No fireworks
Don’t get me wrong, there were plenty of fireworks around yesterday. We are very lucky to live just across from a field where a big annual display takes place, very useful. But at the Breeders Cup last night it felt like I’d only been given a couple of sparklers in the back garden.
For some reason while this meeting is a decent betting heat it never really seems to catch fire from a trading perspective. I did just fine last …
Breeders cup
There are not many races I tend to do in the US, but the Breeders Cup is one of them. I’ve often looked at key races in the US but there just doesn’t seem to be enough interest in them. Even the Kentucky Derby barely registers on the trading Richter scale from a volume perspective.
However, the Breeders Cup is different and is worth a look. One of the problems you will have is that the key races tend to …
Concern for missing commentator
Anybody who was trading the races at Hexham on Saturday couldn’t have missed that the Dougie Fraser was missing. Good old Matt Chapman had to fill in as best he could from the booth, but by the evening it was clear that something was wrong.
Full story in a lot of newspapers yesterday. I have linked to an article here.
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