Tag: italian
Fiery Italians Produce Dirty Derbies
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Fiery Italians Produce Dirty …
Today’s crop of dodgy football matches
The football season is pretty much over, but the fun and games are not it seems. With a few things to be decided in Italy there is still time for some unusual odds, volume and perhaps results? I have attached an image for posterity. At 09:00 this morning the matched bet volume on Verona vs Empoli was the leading traded volume on the football for the entire day for all matches!
Novara vs Lanciano – £15k matched, £11k on the …
How do the Italians get away with it?
I know I’ve posted a few times on this, but it’s really difficult to fathom in an age of close scrutiny and elevated morality in sport how matches like this occur. Today – Bari vs Cesena
I just downloaded todays football for analysis and on this match £30k has been match and all but a minor amount has been matched on the draw, which is going off odds on! Amazing, or it would be, if it wasn’t so predictable!
You …
End of season Italian football – I predict a draw
As I have pointed out in prior years at the same time, end of season Italian football can throw up some strange situations and odds. Here are the ‘top’ eight matches with the lowest price for the draw today.
Spezia Vs. Lanciano – Draw odds – 2.08
Cesena Vs. Juve Stabia – Draw odds – 2.1
Chievo Vs. Cagliari – Draw odds – 2.3
Cittadella Vs. Reggina – Draw odds – 3.1
Crotone Vs. Modena – Draw odds – 3.3…
More confusing exchange legislation, this time in Italy
News last week that legislation has been tabled in Italy to legalise the use of Betfair from an exchange perspective. But the legislation looks horrible.
For about two years Betfair have not been accepting new registrations from Italian customers, so an update on legislation has been long awaited. From what I can make out at the moment the Italian exchange will only be open to Italian residents betting on a very restricted range of markets. For example there would be …
End of season Italian football
As I have pointed out before, end of season Italian football can throw up some strange situations and odds. Today we have Atalanta vs Fiorentina where the draw was matched around 2.36-2.40 before the off. Currently it is 1-0 at half time, equaliser anybody? TBH though it doesn’t look like this match is headed for a draw at the moment.
Maybe it’s my imagination, but if feels like there are less of these matches this year than last, unless …
I predict another draw
A cursory glance at the Italian football today reveals two matches were the matched bet volume is 5-6 times greater than normal and draw odds much shorter than expected. I have posted the two matches in question on the forum. I backed Brescia to win against Bologna on Saturday after picking up on activity on that match. Brescia were 2-0 up inside ten minutes, so I traded out at very short odds.
It prompted me to see what happened …
I predict a draw
Hold on, haven’t I posted that before? Has this happened before? Err… yes at the end of each Italian football season. I’m wise to it now!
Part of my preparation for the weekends football fixtures, I suck in all the matches via Bet Angel into a spreadsheet and a couple of pre-set formula’s point out areas of interest. Last night it threw up Padova vs Atalanta as ‘odd’. You can see why on the following graph. The volume of matched …
I predict a draw (Part 2)
Second part of what will probably be a three part post.
The draw is now trading at a remarkable 1.42 and £2.85m of £3m on the match is on the draw! To put that into perspective only 10% of the money on the Man City vs Everton match is on the draw, a more rational number.
Question now is what sort of a draw will it be. 1-1 is usually the favoured result and that is being backed in as …
I predict a draw (Part 1)
The draw is a “underactive” area of the match odds market. Out of the three outcomes availble, the draw tends to get proportionatly little attention and volume out of the three.
So, a bit of a surprise to see the draw accounting for 96% of the volume in the match. Not only that but even more surprising to see the odds backed in from 3.00 to 1.30, before the off. The italian football market is a curious one isn’t it?…
Would you back the draw at 1.30?
If a football match was near the end, perhaps ten or fifteen minutes or so, 1.28 may represent value. But before the match has started, no way! Mathematically speaking it’s highly improbable for the draw to be priced at 80% certainty in a fair match. However these strange odds seem to occur often at the end of the Italian football season. Not all of them play out as the odds intend but it’s certainly very strange to keep seeing such …
Italian end of season matches
Since my first posting some time ago there have been plenty more Italian matches with strange prices. However, not all have ended up with the predicted result. There appears to be a process of reversion to mean going on! I was lucky on this one, as rather than backing the draw I opted to back Lazio, who went on to win. Because of the propensity for these matches to be unpredictable I wonder whether an element of this unusual pricing …
Even odder
Thanks for all the people that emailed in about the Chievo vs Catania match. Many different views and opinions on this match. Also thanks to my Italian friends that got in contact to talk about this particular game.
No surprise that the match ended up 1-1 as strongly predicted by the market. 95% of all the money on the match was traded on the draw which is pretty much unheard of in a soccer match. There is vigorous discussion on …
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