Tag: liverpool
Spreadsheets alone can’t win games
When John Henry took over Liverpool football club I was intrigued to see how things would pan out.
I had known for a number of years that Liverpool had net underspent in comparison to their peer group in the Premier league. This meant that they were likely to start slipping down the league as their competitors had much more fire-power when it came to the transfer market. I often detail this knowledge at the start of each season and you …
Saturday Soccer Stats
Arsenal get the chance to all but confirm their top four finish with the lunchtime kick-off on Saturday as they host a Liverpool side that stand six points below them with just eight games remaining. Given their superior goal difference that is effectively a 6.5 point advantage and Liverpool simply have to win here if they are to claim a Champions League finish this term.
Liverpool will need to overturn a poor recent record
Sunday Soccer Stats
Backing Liverpool
Hindsight is a wonderful thing isn’t in. But Liverpool are now into 1.19 for the title, but a controversial title awaits perhaps?
After their 0-0 draw with Athletico this week in the champions league, Chelsea are preparing for the real prospect of another champions league final. But this it seemingly going to have an effect on the title race also.
Mourinho has threatened to field a much weakened team against Liverpool, effectively handing them the title. Liverpool’s price has shortened …
Title decider
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No two ways about it this is the match that will most likely decide where the title will go. If City drop two points then it’s Liverpool’s to lose. If City win then Liverpool will find it very hard to make up ground. Should be a cracking match. I’m going to give …
Liverpool vs Arsenal
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Premier League: Liverpool v Arsenal (Sat, 12:45)
Arsenal, in recent seasons, have been characterised by their awful record against the league’s other top teams. In the four seasons prior to this they lost 12 and won only two of 20 away matches against other top-six finishers, while their equivalent home record of …
Merseyside Derby
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Premier League: Liverpool v Everton (Tue, 20:00)
The first Merseyside derby of the season was a 3-3 thriller and with both teams still occupying positions in the top six and separated by just one point this is one of the biggest meetings between these teams in years.
Liverpool have won 10 of …
Europa success for Liverpool?
I must admit to being sceptical when ‘King Kenny’ was appointed as Liverpool manager. I felt that after many years out it would be difficult to adjust to the modern game. However, Dalgleish has had a mercurial affect on Liverpool’s confidence and at the top level of a sport that is critical. People perform with similar skill at the highest levels and confidence is a BIG factor.
Last Sunday’s defeat of Man Utd will have given them a real boost …
Late goals expected in FA Cup
Manchester United and Liverpool commence battle on Sunday afternoon in the tie of the FA Cup third round. If the match earlier in the season is anything to go by this could well be a Cup classic. From a pure betting standpoint Liverpool’s away form this season gives plenty of reason to back a home win. Roy Hodgson’s men have won only once away from Anfield in the league and have lost six of their nine games.
However, traders might …
Arsenal the business
If you look at the top of the premiership there is a lot of ‘buying points’ going on. Chelsea and Man City have spent a fortune buying up talent to keep hold of a top four place. Man Utd have also spent a lot, but not as prolifically as the former teams. One likely reason for this is that Man Utd are run as a business, albeit a heavily indebted one. So they can’t afford to run the business in …
Lessons from Liverpool
Tonight we are in the final group stages of the champions league. These matches can throw up some odd results as some have strong incentives to win and others much less so.
Last night the market was pretty stable in the Liverpool vs Aston Villa match. Then the teamsheet came out and there was no Gerrard or Torres on it! You can see the effect this had on the price. It is always worth remembering that while football matches are …
Merseyside Derby
How tantalising is this match!
I’m not sure if I have seen a better set up for this Derby in all my years of following football. Passions will be high and both teams will be desperate for a win. Neither team can really afford to lose, but recent stats favour the home team. Everton have won 9/13 home fixtures while Liverpool have won just 1/12 away fixtures. Given various circumstances I suspect this will be a draw. This is much …
Liverpool could face points deduction
Liverpool need to agree a sale by the 15th October or else they could be put into administration. This is significant if you remember my post last year about a similar situation with premiership club Portsmouth. Full story here: –
https://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/teams/l/liverpool/9074311.stm
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I …
Europa league
Really looking forward to the Europe league this evening. There are strong cases for a goal coming from any of the four teams this evening. So a strategy oriented around this or NOT 0-0 seem sensible this evening. Come later in the game, if there are no goals, neither side will have anything to lose with a strong push in the last few minutes. It will be an interesting night.
Last night I was spot on about the Barca – …
Bit of a Kop out
No surprise to see Tom Hicks and George Gillett exit stage left at Liverpool. Struggling to refinance their debt they have to find a viable exit, but it’s a terrible time to sell. Liverpool are heading for a poor season and the attractiveness of the club must have been dented by their lack of success, not only this season but in prior seasons also. For the amount of wages they pay they really should be performing better, but I am …
Europa league
I am suffering from ‘man flu’ this week so it will be an early night for me.
A tricky start to Aintree left me feeling I needed an early night rather than work through the Europe league this evening, but here are some thoughts for you. This competition has provided plenty of decent opportunities this year and both ties with the English teams involved are set up nicely. Given Fulham’s performances so far in the competition you really feel the …
Europa League
More fun planned this evening with an infinite range of permutations available on each match. But the two English matches do look the most interesting.
Fulham are 3-1 down, but a home goal would create a massive difference to that score line and you get the feeling anything is possible with Fulham. I wouldn’t bet against Fulham pulling it off this evening. The match is priced for 2.6 goals with a slight advantage to the home team. I think that’s …
Trade of the week
One of my favourite types of trades appeared this week. The trade where you look at one market but actually trade another. These opportunities appear all the time but typically in knockout competitions and ante post markets where a result somewhere will definitely affect other prices in a same or similar market.
This week was a little more clear cut but unusual. ITV decided to cover the Liverpool vs Reading FA CUP match. It had all the signs of the …
Liverpool vs Man City
I’ve had quite a few emails on this match so here are my prices.
Liverpool – 2.02
Man City – 4.30
Draw – 3.60
As you can see the market has it pretty much spot on, maybe very minor value on Man City. I know my prices are within 0.10 accuracy over the course of the season so I can’t see any value. Both teams probably won’t want to lose this one so perhaps a tentative match is likely?
A …
Liverpool at it again
If there is one recurring theme of football betting is has to be never to bet against Liverpool. Endlessly famously for the impossible comeback in Turin, Liverpool seem to constantly pull the rabbit out of the hat at the least likely moment.
Mid week they cost me some money by defeating Real Madrid 4-0. It’s not that I didn’t expect them to win, I just didn’t figure it would be by four goals! Yesterday they humbled the seemingly impervious Man …
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