Tag: luxembourg

Football trading – Who scores first?

A decent question to ask about a football match.

I first asked this question back in the early 80’s to help resolve the problem of forecasting draws. I knew that if the outsider scored first the chance of a draw was higher, but just how often did this happen?

The answer was a lot more than I imagined. But slowly I began to gain an appreciation of why. Over the full 90 minutes one teams advantage tends to bear out …