Tag: markets
The Betfair exchange – Getting more and less efficient at the same time!
One of the questions that people often ask me is whether the markets easier to trade than they were 10 or 20 years ago and are the markets on the Betfair exchange more efficient or less efficient now. The answer is an odd one.
Are the markets efficient?
If you ask me, are the markets more efficient? I can say to you yes and no because, curiously, as the markets have evolved both situations have transpired at exactly the same …
Finding value in malevolent markets
You will be forgiven for thinking that humanity is an outdated concept that should be replaced. But they do say, to err is human. But to completely screw up, you need a computer!
Flash crashes
The stock market was set up to allow companies to raise investment capital from investors. A simple and effective concept that works. But modern financial markets are more like a giant casino. You can still raise funds, but the aftermarket dominates the central purpose. The …
Most and least volatile racecourses to trade
I did a tweet recently that stated a little trading fact, that Chelmsford City was the most volatile course. I had a fairly immediate retort, that stated it wasn’t a fact but was ‘just’ an opinion. It was actually a carefully researched fact.
Volatility
I’ve collected data on volatility right from day one of my trading journey and have built up a massive database of data. One of the things I study is how volatile the market is.
I measure …
The Betfair exchange in numbers
I started collecting data on Betfair from the very early days and have carefully archived masses of work that I’ve done in the market.
I hoard data, even if I have no need for it, as I can go back and look at or compare previous periods. This is helpful in sporting terms to understand how the markets behaved in the past, but also I’ll often go back to apply something I recently discovered and see if results are consistent …
The growth and growth of inplay
It seems difficult to imagine a time when it wasn’t ‘all about the in-play’ – but before Ray and Betfair there really wasn’t much concept of betting on an event after the official start time. How things have changed!
The start
Back when exchanges started, it was purely a replication of the traditional bookmaker regime. Similar sports and similar punting styles, but exchanges brought this new concept of betting while an even was underway.
In essence, some markets were ‘in-play’ …
Do Betfair markets reflect true opinion?
OK, for years the exchange mechanism has provided a very useful pricing mechanism. A careful aggregation of demand between people competing on a level playing field and it has provided a beautiful insight into the way free markets can work to mysteriously, accurately, price an event – in this case the prediction that something will win a sports event.
Changes
But we have been watching closely as the market has gradually decoupled from it’s long established core. What do we …
Peter’s laying system
Slightly tongue in cheek title – If there’s one mistake I’ve made in my time in the markets it’s not sticking my name on a concept. As a consequence there are a lot of phrases out there that most probably originated from this camp but are now in general use. Therefore I’m probably the ‘hoover’ of the Betfair trading world, the ‘biro’ the ‘sellotape’. To be fair this happens to everybody who is a pioneer so a also tip my …
Betfair re-invigorate Tradefair platform
Visting the Tradefair site this morning I noticed at announcement on the home page: –
“We are excited to announce that we are now partnering with GFT Global Markets UK Ltd (GFT Markets) to bring you a new service with enhanced tools, features and first class customer service that we believe will make your trading experience even better. Switch by no later than the 12th December 2013, as your existing Tradefair service will become inactive for new trades from that …
A look under Betfair’s football markets
As you may know I’m bit of a stats man, but it’s a useful discipline. Monitoring your own activity can give you a useful insight into the markets and your activity on them. I spend at least a couple of hours a day either analysing what I did yesterday, or some aspect of the market or a strategy.
The champions league matches give me a chance really get under the skin of the market. This is because the liquidity is …
Boxing day bonanza?
Hope you had a good Christmas, we are back with a bang today.
It’s a another boxing day holiday in the UK and the sports schedule will be stuffed full of fixtures, meetings and all manner of sporting events. On racing, even with one meeting abandoned there will be 80 race in the UK and Ireland today.
That’s sounds like heaven to sports traders, but it can be a bit of a nightmare. So many things happening at once often …
A question of scale (part two)
In part one we talked about how scale could be an issue in the markets, but how?
If you are betting there is a maximum amount of money that you can bet ‘at value’. Obviously there is little point in betting outside of value, so by default that means it’s impossible to fulfill an unlimited amount at value. It’s also impossible to take all the money on offer and get value, so you realise quickly that there is only a …
Creative football trading
The great thing about football markets is that they are very predictable, in an unpredictable way!
Goals are few and far between and occur randomly but with bias throughout the match. But because there are so few goals on average, that makes it easy to figure out what you should do when one goes in. There are only a small number of combinations to work with.
Lots of people focus on just one match, research it to death and try …
A question of scale (part one)
I got a phone call from the Financial times the other week about the collapse of Centaur. They wanted to know how I knew it would collapse long before it did, they originally phoned me for an opinion when Centaur first started up and I told them then what I repeated recently.
When you looked at the proposition there were in fact many, many flaws in there; but the top one for me was one of scale. Mainly because I’ve …
Betfair’s LMAX loses £13.2m in first year
Betfair’s majority owned financial trading product LMAX recorded pre-tax losses of £13.2m for the year ended 30 April, Betfair’s annual report has shown. Full story: –
https://www.egrmagazine.com/news/
I think LMAX is going to continue to be a burden for Betfair. There are already very good solutions in place in this market and despite the suggestion it’s a new way, most new users have found that the markets are heavily seeded and the fill rates poor. It’s got a long way …
A sea of red
Fortunately this doesn’t reflect my betting exchange activity, tepid though it is this week. The title refers to the chaos in financial markets. As a lot of your know I am heavily invested in financials and it’s part of my grander plan to eventually sit on my bottom each day doing nothing. I’ve been actively investing since 1990 and messing around for longer than that. It was gambling that lead me to the great casino of the lot, the stock …
Don’t pay till May
It was only when my favourite football club got relegated that I started playing around in the relegation and promotion markets. Since then it has become a regular stamping ground for me during the season, especially at the start or end. People seem to have this wonderful propensity to put too much emphasis on recent results or events. Either that or they carry hopes that are just clearly out of whack with reality.
So far this year I have made …
Connect
Connect with us on the following social media platforms.