Tag: murray
An Ace is worth more than a point
When you read that statement it looks a little strange. How can one point be worth more than another? But statistics seem to show that’s true. With Murray about to line up against a big server in the Wimbledon final tomorrow lets look at the perfect serve.
Wimbledon
Wimbledon is the home of mighty servers, with alternate big servers booming the ball past their opponent. But what effect does it have? Some, it appears.
Over the last couple of years, …
Why we have a Federer fail
Lots of press this morning about the ‘shock’ exit of Roger Federer in the US Open. But, as I have posted before, Federer is definitely in the twilight of his career. As a middle aged man, much as I hate to admit it, 32 is old in sporting terms. In Tennis, players turn pro at an average age of 18 and retire at 32, Federer is 32.
I love analysing all sorts of things to spot, and more importantly, anticipate …
My longest prediction yet
Phew, what a busy period that was and the appropriate climax to much action came on to a head at Wimbledon on Sunday. I’m taking a short break now before returning to the full fold later in the week.
I’m having some R&R, not rest and relaxation, but rest and research. I’m taking a break from the trading to go over things like Royal Ascot and Wimbledon. I’ve collected a massive amount of data over Wimbledon, so I need to …
High expectations
Expectations are high for today’s men final and I think for once I’ll just watch and enjoy it, though I will gather data. It’s been a very busy two weeks at Wimbledon and it’s throwing off above average trading characteristics, so time for a well deserved rest.
I watched last years final from Silverstone but this year the diary has lined up a bit better, but I may end up watching it at the beach because the weather is so …
World #2 status awaits Murray
The semi final went pretty much the way we expected. Gasquet put up a lot of resistance but Murray eventually won out. It may for a nice trading set up, you can see the charts here.
No Tennis match can have a certain outcome but the case for a Murray win against Ferrer looks compelling and this will set up Murray in prime position for a massive seedings boost.
Ferrer has the better of Murray 4-0 on Clay, …
Gasquet vs Murray – Sony Open Tennis – Miami
This is an intruiging match.
Murray will be keen to win this tournament as he will move up to world number two and that will result in some decent seedings, so a big incentive to win.
Gasquet has been playing well so far and will fancy taking the game to Murray at some point you would think. He was at a short price against Rochus, bigger odds against Youzhy, came through a competitive match against Alamgro but sailed through when …
US Open tennis trading – The final in numbers
Just when you think sport in the UK couldn’t reach any higher it does. A slightly belated look at the final.
A fantastic and well deserved win for Murray. It’s a huge achievement and long overdue for UK tennis. You sensed with his Gold Medal victory that he could pull this off but it was hell of a battle to finally do it. I am sure I wasn’t the only one muttering at Djokovic for putting up such a fight …
Wind assisted Tennis trade
Here is a neat insight into something that happens that you don’t realise the significance of at the time.
Last November I went to the World ATP finals in London, I watched Berdych vs Tsonga. I was sat opposite the service line, a useful spot to watch a match when you are interested in some of the finer detail. The thing they caught my eye was how high Berdych threw the ball before he served. I took some photo’s of …
Murray might
Reason to look forward to this afternoon’s gold medal Tennis match with optimism.
Age – Murray is younger than Federer and Federer, despite his world #1 ranking, is in decline. Just very gradual and from a very high peak. Murray is approaching his peak and when players peak anything is possible. Both players are on the process of converging.
Format – Murray got of to a great start at Wimbledon and flew out of the blocks before Federer used his …
Marray, Murray, Wimbledon,Tennis and Fish
Really looking forward to the Wimbledon mens final today, when history will be made one way or another. Maybe we will see a Marray / Murray double, how funny would that be?
Unfortunately I will not be able to witness it first hand as I will stuck in mud / traffic at the British Grand Prix. I didn’t figure Nadal would go out of the tournament so early and that Murray would make it to the final. It’s also a …
Meanwhile
OK, I’m still digesting the news a bit. But while I do that, there is still some great sport on.
The two Wimbledon semi finals are priced around the same level, 1.58 for the favourite, but we have two different contests IMHO.
The head-to-heads tell a different tale: –
Djokovic should be favourite, sure, but Tsonga leads Djokovic 5-2 in head to heads. Though this is the first time they’ve met on grass.
Nadal should also easily be the favourite …
Murray Worry
The sign of a true champion is the ability to overcome the impossible. While I’m not suggesting that Murray will win the title at Roland Garros, he certainly showed today that he’s got the guts. After turning over his ankle during the match, his price shot out after people started fearing a retirement. He had already traded at 1.01 adding to the pressure to push the price out.
Murray had his ankle strapped, Dug down deep and got on to …
Murray match in charts
If you want an insight into how odds move in a Tennis match we will be posting up charts at key points of the Ferrer vs Murray Austrailian open semi final today.
To view the charts, click here to read the thread on the forum.
Just goes to show
It aint over till the fat lady sings as they say. Trading the Murray v Wawrinka match well this evening and managed to lay some off some of the profit on Murray at very short odds, looking for a Wawrinka fight back. I got one and Murray really let his head drop when broken twice in the third set. He really looked on his way out of the third set and possibly the match. Murray called on the trainer during …
Conclusions from a busy weekend
Blackpool got off to a flyer but are still my favourites for a return to the Championship. No spending power, no ground, no way to attract premiership talent. I think 1.20 was skinny and difficult to find value for relegation but if the price drifts a bit it will be more interesting. I remember, eons ago, Millwall getting off to a flyer in the old division one and they topped the table for a while but were still relegated. I …
Reaching a climax
Excuse the double entendre but both Wimbledon and the World cup are now reaching the critical stages.
Both Nadal and Murray know that they have a great chance to win Wimbledon if they get through the semi final. That said, Berdych is on fire at the moment as I write this. I can’t help but think Murray’s price is a little low given his opponent. The market is telling us there is only a 2.7% difference in ability given the …
Murray vs Gasquet
I know British hopefuls will be dissapointed if Murray goes at in the first round at Roland Garros. But at the current market price Murray is priced at only being a couple of percent better than Gasquet. That makes it a tough match for Murray. Nadal is at very short prices to add a fifth title.
If Murray wins the first set then expect his price to reach 1.28, if Gasquet wins Murray would drift to 2.36.
Murray suffers shock defeat
1.12 turned over, in a shock defeat.
However, short odds turned over in these sorts of matches are not uncommon. If you limit a match to three sets then the propensity for an upsets shoots up. One break of serve, if you are serving first, wins you the set. A couple of errors in the next set and the match is over. If the prospect of a shock was high, then it was in space yesterday when Tipsy took Murray …
Surprise exit for Murray?
I was suprised to see people claim that Andy Murray’s exit from the Paris masters was a surprise. Despite such a late night last night, Murray was in action again today and looking very tired. I thought his price was pretty short but it got very short indeed when he won the first set. From there Murray really ran out of steam and I thought it was odd that the market hadn’t priced this in. Just goes to show that …
Murray mullered
Andy Murray was completely outclassed this evening in New York. Cilic dominated the match to win in three straight sets and fairly easily. Despite only have a first serve percentage of around 30% in the second set, Cilic still dominated a poor Murray to cruise to victory. The warning signs were there from the off and the second set confirmed Murray’s error strewn display.
Even after taking the first set you could still Lay murray at 1.30’s and he never …
Montreal Murray
An interesting match. Del Potro sneaked the first, Murray the second, both on tie breaks, and then Murray trounced a tired looking Del Petro in the last. At potentially 1-1 in a three set match a tie break can bring some really significant opportunties and that was proved once again today. Murray traded around the 3’s at worse but after leveling the match his price crashed back into the starting price of 1.50. A quick and brutal swing. For a …
Murray is 11% better than Starace
Just watching the 2nd round match at the French open. According to the market at the ‘off’ Murray was 11% better than Starace at winning a point on his serve. Currently Murray just lost the second set, but reading the match Murray appeared to lose hope of turning around the second set and effectively just gave it away, probably to conserve energy. With Murray serving first in the third set I may consider backing Murray subject to how the third …
Murray at the aussie open
I haven’t been able to do much on the open for obvious reasons but have been following it as best I can. It’s a real shame as I have continued working on Tennis for some time now and I planned to let rip on the open. That will have to wait for now.
At the start of the tournament I wrote down the rankings of the players Murray was likely to play. So far it’s spot on, here is the …
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