Tag: politics
Punting on Politics – General election turnout
I did a little piece on the General election recently for Betfair. Underlying it was some work I’d looked at recently on turnout for elections.
Apathy
When the election was called the markets shifted significantly anticipating a Conservative landslide. I immediately wondered if there would be a correlation between certainty and turnout. But first I had to work out what a ‘normal’ turnout would look like.
I looked back at elections since the second world and munched through some …
You think Donald Trump is bad!
There has been lots of discussion about Donald Trump’s rants of a mad man recently. So here are some more: –
A CASINO IN EVERY SMARTPHONE – LAW ENFORCEMENT IMPLICATIONS
https://oversight.house.gov/hearing/a-casino-in-every-smartphone-law-enforcement-implications/
This was the hearing that was called when the DOJ OLC reversed a long-standing policy by declaring that the Wire Act applied only to sports betting and not all forms of betting. This policy reversal potentially ‘opens the door’ for online gambling in all 50 states.
One sided views…
Punting on politics
It wasn’t that long ago that we had fun and games trading the general election, but now another political market has risen to the fore.
The next Labour leader market is proving quite an interesting one. Yvette Cooper is providing the female interest, Andy Burnham is providing a centre left approach and then we have Jeremy Corbyn who is stoking up the far left of the party. There has been a lot of discussion on the topic and a thread …
Trading news flow
The importance of liquidity
One of the most important aspects of a successful trading market is liquidity. You can enter any market at any price, but sometimes you will want to get out quickly as well. That is why liquidity is important when trading, it gives you control over your position.
Sometimes you can find liquidity markets in the most unusual places, hunting them has become something I enjoy doing. We’re less than a week away from the Scottish vote …
Just say no
Should be change to an alternative vote system in the UK? Well, the betting market seems to give a pretty clear answer to the likely result.
Snooze to lose
I quite like novelty bets as they are difficult to price, but I missed this one yesterday. In hindsight an opportunity missed!
https://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/
Ken Clarke netted a punter a decent return at 16/1 by officially / unofficially falling asleep during the budget speech yesterday. Some of these other more esoteric bets didn’t come in.
Three’s a crowd
With another general election TV debate tonight I’ll be keeping an eye on the markets. After the last debate it seemed clear that Clegg won but I was surprised at how that translated into market movements. I am a big sceptic on polls during an election. Telling somebody how you will vote is an anathema to most people, so I don’t believe that a stranger asking how you are going to vote generates a valid opinion. As always, my preference …
The politics of betting
I think this general election could turn out to be quite a good trading opportunity.
When trading you ideally want uncertainty and I think we have plenty around at the moment. Last nights debate added some more to mix as well. I thought it was funny to follow the coverage then this morning see all the new polls coming in. I’d be surprised if the election is decided on one debate, especially the one I saw last night. But there …
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