Tag: premier league
How to win the Premier League
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?
The defining characteristic
As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite …
Are Arsenal getting better or worse?
Arsenal to finish fourth and win the FA Cup? Maybe not this year then, so it’s Wenger out?
Financial fair play?
I look at many different aspects of football aside from the general market pricing. Being able to read a financial report, a club’s financials can be quite useful for predicting long-term performance. Clubs that carry a lot of debt expense will see their ability to finance the purchase of new players squeezed. Clubs that are flush with finance can …
Will Leicester really stuff the bookies?
Lot’s of PR, sorry, I mean talk, from the bookies recently about how much they will pay out if Leicester win the title. But is that a reality?
My worst bet ever!
Here is a confession – I will lose money if, when, Leicester win the title. But I have to say it will be one of the most enjoyable losses of my career! Why, because it’s great to see a competitive season in the premiership. As a supporter of …
Can Leicester qualify for the champions league?
Did you know, Leicester have been here before? Read on….
Analytics
The thing I love about the modern football analytics movement is there are increasing amounts of, free, data out there that will help you make good, sensible, rational decisions. Far more than I could have ever imagined.
It’s a long way from when I wrote to a magazine in the 80’s about in-play football and the editors response was that he couldn’t see how it would interest anybody.
Quite …
How to win the league
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?
The defining characteristic
As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite …
Two horse races
Here are three two horse races for you: –
(1) A two horse race yesterday at Epsom, utterly depressing. Difficult to trade, I made a loss.
(2) A Tennis match, a joy of uncertainty and volatility. Currently occurring daily in NY at the US Open Tennis at the moment. Lovely to trade.
(3) The ensuing premier league battle. Two horse race? I hear you say, but the market is speaking loudly about the prospects of the key teams already.
Chelsea …
How to buy success
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?
The defining characteristic
As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite …
Premier League Final Day Stats – last 15 years
These stats are brought to your by our friends over at Football Form Labs. Check out their site and the powerful software that sits behind these comments.
Premier League Final Day Stats – last 15 years
- Backing every home team would have given a +6.2% profit over the 150 matches
- There have been 34 matches where the home side has been a 2.0-2.5 favourite (Sunderland, West Brom) with those teams winning 56% of matches and the games averaging 3.18
Backing Liverpool
Hindsight is a wonderful thing isn’t in. But Liverpool are now into 1.19 for the title, but a controversial title awaits perhaps?
After their 0-0 draw with Athletico this week in the champions league, Chelsea are preparing for the real prospect of another champions league final. But this it seemingly going to have an effect on the title race also.
Mourinho has threatened to field a much weakened team against Liverpool, effectively handing them the title. Liverpool’s price has shortened …
Trading the Premier League title run-in
With West Ham vs Liverpool on the agenda this afternoon I thought I would have a close look at the premier leagues remaining matches and how they will affect the run in for the title. View the video to see how I’m looking to do this.
Will the premier league goal drought continue?
Many thanks to our friends over at Football Form Labs for this guest post. Football Form Lab is software that I use to help me spot patterns or trends in football matches. It can help you identify thousands of opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. It’s very detailed and that’s why I like it, so much information.
Form Labs is currently on offer and you can save 66% on a Form Labs subscription.
ANALYSIS – WILL THE …
How to buy success
As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers will have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?
The defining characteristic
As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. …
Why the Rickie Lambert story is so rare
I remember being a small boy watching my local team, smoke wafting in my face, pie in hand until a crowd surge would dump it unceremoniously on the terrace! But hey, I’m showing my age.
I couldn’t help but let out a cheer when Lambert scored on his England debut as it’s a great story and it’s also something that gives people hope. When I stood on the terraces all those years ago I felt that if I tried hard …
Premier league darts
Premier league darts starts again this evening. Volumes have been growing on the darts for some time and it’s got my attention.
I’ve been quietly expanding my knowledge and strategies in two player markets over the last couple of years and have slowly begun to get a grip on more effective ways of trading them. Darts is on my rader.
Darts is useful because the scoring system isn’t radically different from Tennis when you break it down. You have games …
Are Celtic better than a savings account?
When news came out that Rangers will start the Scottish season in divisions three, my head started spinning at all the permutations for next season. I always remember the fantastic Gretna, who rose from obscurity to become the punter and traders best friend, then promptly vanished as fast as they had risen.
In this case it’s almost the opposite. Rangers have been unceremoniously dumped from their elite status to the lower ranks of Scottish football. If Rangers can keep …
Some key stats from Man City vs QPR
Well that was an interesting match wasn’t it? I went from thinking ‘I’d hate to be a Man City fan right now’ to ‘I’d love to be a Man City right now’, all in the space of a few minutes. You go all season without losing at home then almost blow it on what should have been one of the easiest matches of the lot. It was like Barcelona vs Chelsea but in reverse.
In total the match odds market …
It’s all kicking off!
Yes the premier league is back. Twenty teams, OK maybe four, well maybe three battle it out for the greatest honour in football…. Who will sack their manager first!
As I have mentioned in previous posts the market tends to inefficient at the start of the season. I looked back over the two months at the start of last season to see what happened last year.
The first thing to note is that the market got the number of goals …
£174m
The Deloitte football report is out and makes continued interesting reading. The current austerity in the western world doesn’t seem to have affected football. Their finances are as bad as ever but the players get paid more in a week than a group of the fans could reasonably expected to earn in a year. The clamour for ‘talent’ continues unabated.
There are some very interesting bits in the report. Manchester United spent 46% of its revenue on pay, but rivals …
Premier league darts
I know I’ve mentioned this a few times recently but the darts markets are growing on me rapidly for a number of reasons. Generally it is because matches take place over a short period of time but display characteristics similar to other markets.
Last night we saw Phil Taylor take on RayVan Barneveld and there were two obvious trades. Taylor got off to a good start and was worth backing from the off. 6-0 up at the break and trading …
Doing darts
Sat here the other evening watching the premier league darts and suddenly realised what I am looking at is actually pretty similar to other sports in the way it is scored and played. The format of the premier league darts is also interesting with the introduction of the draw.
The underlying feeling and the way the odds move is fairly similar to other sports and can surely be traded in a similar manner. A huge benefit of course, is that …
The impact of transfers
Back before the start of the season I tipped a number of teams to struggle and managers likely to leave their jobs, by and large I have been spot on. A couple of surprises, but come the end of the season I’d should be well up on the deal over the course of the season. So, how did I find these opportunities? Just one word, money!
That money makes the world go around is true and none more so in …
Pub landlady wins EU case
Venues showing live Premier League matches from foreign broadcasters are not breaking EU law, court advised.
Full story here: –
https://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/feb/03/eu-law-sports-rights
This could make a big change in the financing of the premier league.
Football’s turn for an ouch!
Bolton score against Spurs, so you would expect the odds to move a bit. However, you wouldn’t expect Spurs to get backed into 1.59; but that’s what happened! I suspect somebody sorted the odds in the wrong order or just had the wrong selection up some how and back heavily on the goal.
Bolton won 4-2 so no get out of jail card was served on this occasion. £77,809 was matched at 1.59.
Merseyside Derby
How tantalising is this match!
I’m not sure if I have seen a better set up for this Derby in all my years of following football. Passions will be high and both teams will be desperate for a win. Neither team can really afford to lose, but recent stats favour the home team. Everton have won 9/13 home fixtures while Liverpool have won just 1/12 away fixtures. Given various circumstances I suspect this will be a draw. This is much …
TV rights to do a Bosman?
An important case taking place this week in the European courts of justice. If successful the case could led to a deterioration of the money coming into UK football. I suspect there will be many battles to follow if the ruling goes against the premier league.
You can’t help but feel sympathy for people in one territory who are forced to pay much higher costs just because of a line drawn on a map. Given the mobility of information in …
How much!
It was interesting to read this article today which details just how much money each premiership club collects each year.
It’s amazing to think that any club could go into administration with so much money being dished out each year. Couple this with parachute payments and it seems that the premier league is clearly set to pull away from the old football league in terms of development. There is an interesting graphic here that clearly illustrates the amount of the …
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