Tag: pricing
Do Betfair markets reflect true opinion?
OK, for years the exchange mechanism has provided a very useful pricing mechanism. A careful aggregation of demand between people competing on a level playing field and it has provided a beautiful insight into the way free markets can work to mysteriously, accurately, price an event – in this case the prediction that something will win a sports event.
Changes
But we have been watching closely as the market has gradually decoupled from it’s long established core. What do we …
Are you getting a duff price?
Had an interesting conversation with somebody recently about how they can’t use the exchange any longer because the prices on the sports book were much better.
Here is why he realised he had made a mistake: –
Industry pricing for football
The first thing to note is that industry prices on football are much tighter than they used to be. I’ll have to dig out some very old prices to see what they were in the distant past, but typically …
Estimating correct score odds
In this video I discuss a simplistic approach to estimating correct score odds by deriving them from the match odds markets. You can do this automatically in Bet Angel. There are several layers and depths you can get to with pricing models and this is a fairly simple ‘top level’ model that is easy to understand but is not particularly refined.
For clarity I’ve also included a market where this model is not appropriate and where you should use a …
The thin line between individual skill in Tennis
If you have been active on Wimbledon these past two weeks you would have seen some great matches. But you should have also seen something else, maybe without realising it.
Often you see an outsider really battle away at a heavy odds on favourite, maybe even winning the first set, but despite this their odds don’t seem to come in that much. If you look at Murray’s match against Janowicz, Janowicz was at one set all and leading 4-1. His …
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