Tag: sending off

In the wrong Kompany!

In the wrong Kompany!

There are many cases for backing or laying at 1.02. But last Sunday we had a great example of why you just wouldn’t back at such short odds.

First off lets look at the odds: –

At 1.02 you would return £2 for every £100 staked. If you laid, then the opposing situation is true; you would earn £100 for every £2 lost. At odds of 1.02 the market is telling you there is a 98% of this situation occurring. …

14/01/2012 | By More
0-0 Continued…

0-0 Continued…

Well the two key matches I was looking at worked pretty well in the end but the other ‘deserved’ 0-0 at half time ended up 3-0 to the home team. This illustrates a key point.

With any in-play market you are hostage to what happens during the event. If you take a rigid approach to the underlying event you can’t really hope to out perform the statistics that can be modelled in the market.

In yesterdays match Joey O’Brian was …

12/12/2011 | By More
Better with ten men

Better with ten men

It’s always been frustrating to see people comment that a team seems to play better with ten men, the stats don’t back this up. That said, this isn’t a great example; as the team who had the player sent off did go on to win! However, you can see that the price reacted quite clearly when Da Silva was sent off.

I haven’t modelled a sending off accurately just yet but, I am getting there. On this occasion the market …

28/09/2009 | By More
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