Tag: soccer
Retrograde motion
Have a look at the England match last night and you could see a classic bit of why the market is efficient, but it isn’t. Immediately after the first England goal it was quite possible to back the draw and see it come in a fair bit. A fair bit as far as the odds were concerned, but not much in implied probability, around 2.5%.
The price on the draw came in after the first goal and this is contrary …
Not playing tonight
No activity from me this evening as it’s my fourteenth wedding anniversary and we are out for a posh meal and some pampering. Traditional musings say this is an Ivory anniversary, but modern says Gold so it looks like a Spandau Ballet single is in order, LOL!
Just a quick post on the England vs Croatia game.
I reckon the odds should be 1.61 England, 7.20 Croatia and 4.1 the Draw.
Current market prices are similar but too short on …
Arsenal vs Celtic
With the end of the evening racing I’ve finally put my footie head on. Market is priced for 3 goals with Arsenal expected to score at least a couple of those. From a stats perspective the price on Arsenal and Celtic is about right. If pushed for a price I would offer 1.40 on Arsenal and 11 on Celtic, looks like a Arsenal win! But I would also offer only 5’s on the draw which means there is some value …
$100k Soccer challenge
A couple of guys recently flew into the UK do my course in July. They have now taken the bold step to do their own challenge via a blog. In contrast to others, they are going to do this on football.
They were a smart couple of guys and I’ve no doubt they will do well. Based on the start they have got off to, I think they may need to up their target a little bit. You can view …
The draw
I was going to post about Liverpool vs Everton but never got the chance to do so. So here is a reverse appraisal. As most people know a local derby is always a tight affair and perhaps a match you would expect to end in a draw, as neither team want to lose.
Unlike a lot of myths this is actually generally true. I did some research a fair time ago and realised that there was a link between distance …
Why do Man U get more penalties?
Celtic 11 – Dundee United 10.
Odd scoreline but this was actually just the penalty shootout. You can view all 14 minutes of it here. I was watching some tepid premier league match in comparison testing a couple of strategies. It got me thinking about what is the biggest shoot out. According to the article here it seems to be 16-17 with all but the last penalty scored. It’s quite amusing seeing goalkeepers take penalties but, by accident or …
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